'Green Shoots' in Semiconductor Industry

For those who are still searching for "green shoots", there was some good news from the semiconductor sector Friday.

The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) announced Friday that May semiconductor revenues worldwide were up 5.4% over April. That's the good news. The bad news is that revenues are still down over 23% on a year-over-year basis.

The chart from SIA covering 1996 to the present follows:

click to enlarge


As SIA President George Scalise commented,

The May sales numbers reflect the third-consecutive month of sequential growth for the semiconductor industry.

The sequential monthly increases lead us to be cautiously optimistic about a return to normal seasonal patterns for the industry going forward.

Looking closer to home, sales in the Americas have also been up three months in a row. The chart below shows an over 5% gain from February to March with April growth slowing down and May showing another decent pick-up.


An important component of tech sector growth

Since many observers consider semiconductor sales to be somewhat of a leading indicator for the overall tech sector, it is a welcome sign to see some consistent growth. A return to "normal seasonal patterns" implies even better growth in the months ahead.

After the stinky employment numbers reported on Thursday, any good news we can find is certainly appreciated. Let's hope those "green shoots" in the semiconductor sector continue to sprout.

Comments

[Moon Kil Woong:]

Look at sales in America. The trend is seasonal save last year and not strong at all. As for semi's usually the end of the down cycle doesn't occur until they start running out of cash. Given, they were smart and curbed buildout this cycle and raised money before the downturn, I am not sure if the cycle has really turned.

I am hopeful electronics will lead us out of this recession like so many others before. The author is right to track them for signs of real green shoots.

Jul 05 11:49 PM

[Old Trader:]

I believe it was last night/early this morning, I saw some export numbers for semiconductors out of Japan, I believe it was, and they'd fallen off of a cliff...down something like 46%, if I recall properly.

Jul 06 09:00 PM