Tomorrow's update on personal consumption spending in April is projected to report a rise of 0.2% vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator's average econometric forecast. That matches the previously released 0.2% increase for March. The Capital Spectator’s average forecast is at the high end of consensus predictions drawn from surveys of economists.
Here's a closer look at the numbers, followed by brief summaries of the methodologies behind The Capital Spectator's estimates:
VAR-3: A vector autoregression model that analyzes three economic time series in context with personal consumption expenditures. The three additional series: US private payrolls, personal income, and industrial production. The forecasts are run in R with the "vars" package.
R-1: A linear regression model that analyzes the historical record of personal consumption expenditures in context with retail sales. The historical relationship between the variables is applied to the more recently updated retail sales data to project personal consumption expenditures. The computations are run in R.