On Yields, Commodities, Credit Cards and the S&P 500

The US Treasury tug of war continues. Commodities appear to be topping out. Credit card debt will continue to hurt financials including American Express (AXP).

US Treasury yields remain in a tug of war between too much supply and a flight to quality.

For the 10-Year yield I show new semiannual supports at 4.00 and 4.18 with daily resistance at 3.43.

Supply will be tested again this week with the auction of $35 billion 3-Year notes today, $19 billion 10-Year notes on Wednesday, and $11 billion 30-Year bonds on Thursday, another $65 billion in total.

National Debt is $11.4 trillion and rising. By the end of the year the debt and mortgages on the books of Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) can be as large as $900 billion each.

If these amounts were added into the $11.4 trillion the total debt would be $13.2 trillion.

If you included the estimated $5.5 trillion in mortgages and debt of the GSEs the result is a staggering $18.7 trillion, which could be the end result after all that has been wasted in taxpayer support of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The decision will be interpretation of implicit or explicit government guarantee.

Commodities were under pressure on Monday, as the global growth story lost a few green shoots.

For Comex gold the weekly chart profile stays negative with weekly closes below the five-week modified moving average at $937. There is plenty of overhead resistance above $1,000 the ounce even if the down trend that goes back to March 2008 is taken out to the upside.

Comex copper shifts to negative on its weekly chart, given a close on Friday below the five-week modified moving average at 220.75. My quarterly support is 212.36 with my annual pivots at 225.88 and 240.20.

Nymex crude oil shifts to negative on its weekly chart, given a close on Friday below the five-week modified moving average at $64.97. My annual pivots remain magnets at $66.51 and $68.81.

Credit card debt is on the rise, and new regulations won’t take effect until February.

The average American consumer carries 5.3 credit cards, has $10,700 in credit card debt. Losses on credit cards are now reported at 10.4%.

A brokerage upgrade for American Express had this Dow member up 5.6% on Monday. ValuEngine disagrees with this call as the stock has a “SELL” rating.

ValuEngine shows downside of 25% for AMEX over the next twelve months given a trend below the 200-day simple moving average at $21.30. The 50-day simple moving average at $24.79 provides resistance.

The daily and weekly charts for the S&P 500 are poised for a downside move.

The daily chart for the S&P 500 shows declining momentum but the 200-day simple moving average held as support at 886.60. The 50-day and 21-day are resistances at 909.3 and 920.5.

The weekly chart for the S&P 500 shifts to negative on a close this week below the five-week modified moving average at 905.

For the S&P 500, new quarterly and monthly supports are 786.1 and 762.1 with my annual pivot at 910.8 and annual resistance at 967.1. New quarterly resistance is 998.3.

Disclosure: No positions in items discussed.