If you recall my Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) articles, my main thesis is that the social gaming business is OK, and it will pull its own weight, but it's the online real money gambling business that will bring in the real money and boost Zynga's share price in the future.
However, whether the company succeeds or not in the gambling space is not the issue for the stock at the current time. My belief is that the market will speculate bidding up the stock as the company approaches the date that it will have full fledged online gambling operations in the U.S.. As mentioned in previous articles, this date will be around Q1 of 2015.
If you haven't noticed, the first official online real money gambling poker site in the U.S. is up and running and it's called Ultimatepoker.com. In fact the company claims "Ultimate Poker is America's first and only regulated online real money poker site". The only problem is that you have to physically be in the state of Nevada to be able to play.
Why do I think this revelation is important for Zynga? Well to begin with, the company has also applied for a license in Nevada. While I don't expect Zynga to open up shop as of yet, the issue is one of exceptions.
In previous articles I have said that Zynga's stock is not going anywhere for while because there is no reason for the stock to go up. Like I have said I really don't expect the social business to excite investors.
However, gambling is another story. I think the market will slowing but surely start to discount Zynga's gambling potential sooner than 2015. Just how soon is very hard to tell, but like I have said before, I expect Zynga's stock to gradually reach higher highs and higher lows as a function of time until 2015.
As a result, it might be time for Zynga to make the next leg up. But since I we can't be absolutely sure if the market will bid up the stock at the current time, the best we can do is to be on the lookout for the possibility. And the best way to be on the alert for the next leg up is by looking at the charts.
In the chart above, the rectangle is what I have defined from previous articles to be the trading range of Zynga. I have said that anywhere along the $3 level would be a buyer's opportunity, except in the case that the stock falls below $2.80 (which has not happened).
So given the fact that real live money gaming is live in Nevada, there is a chance that the market might bid up Zynga, in anticipation of future events. If that happens, keep your eye on the ball for current resistance levels of around $3,60. If Zynga takes those levels out, I think we will see much higher prices, for no particular reason, other than market anticipation and speculation.