DVY Has Highest Expected Total Return Among 5 Largest Dividend ETFs

 |  Includes: DVY, HDV, SDY, VIG, VYM
by: Richard Shaw

The five largest dividend ETFs by total assets are (listed in order from highest to lowest assets):

VIG Vanguard/Mergent Dividend Achievers
DVY Dow Jones Select Dividend
SDY S&P 1500 High Yield Dividend Aristocrats
VYM FTSE High Dividend Yield
HDV Morningstar Dividend Yield Focus
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DVY has the highest mean "Street" analyst price change projection for the next 12 months. DVY also has the highest trailing yield.

Without discussing any risk or volatility issues, DVY has the highest expected total return of the group.

This table shows the projections, along with the percentage of projected total return that comes from dividends (using trailing yield), and also the forward P/E and P/CF from Morningstar, and the short-term technical rating from BarChart.com

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The mean analyst price change forecast for each ETF was developed by identifying the mean analyst price change forecast for each stock in each ETF, and then weighting each stock's price change projection by the stock's weight in the ETF.

See our prior article from yesterday that presented price change projections for the S&P 500, S&P 500 High Quality, S&P 500 Low Volatility, S&P 500 Sectors, and the FTSE Equity REIT index and the Alerian Infrastructure MLP index.

Disclosure: QVM has positions in VIG, SDY and VYM as of the creation date of this article (June 3, 2013). We certify that except as cited herein, this is our work product. We received no compensation or other inducement from any party to produce this article, but are compensated retroactively by Seeking Alpha based on readership of this specific article.

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