Stopped out of Trades, Will There Be a Reversal?

Getting stopped out of many things today; the HDFC Bank (HDB) I tried to buy this morning, was stopped out very quickly. But it is already back over $90 and HDB generally does not have a ton of volume, so can be moved in large percentage by not that many dollars.

I was stopped out of a good portion of my Quality Systems (QSII) as it broke the 50 day moving average intraday - we kept a 0.7% stake. Still like this chart if it can quickly reverse but I'd like to see it north of $53.


I was stopped out of Priceline.com (PCLN) as it broke the 50 day moving average intraday - leaving us a 0.2% stake. I am more worried about this set up - it just looks more of a rollover candidate in the intermediate term.


I have a feeling all these positions might reverse themselves back up if the market cooperates.

These are all mechanical trades, meaning I put the stop loss level in below a key resistance, and away it goes. Sentiment-wise I feel more bullish in the very near term as a whole slew of stop losses have been washed out today as the S&P broke 880 and 875.

If you look at a lot of individual stocks intraday, you can see they swoon down when the S&P broke both those levels. Which shows you again, what you own means very little nowadays - we're all hostage to machines, and the program trades swoop out of everything at the same time in parallel with the overall indexes. It really is such a sea change from even 3 years ago - this is why I keep repeating it.

How today ends will dictate the next few sessions I believe; recapturing S&P 880 by the close would be a huge win for the bulls. A close below 875, bears will be happy. I'm trying to get short term bullish here and throw off my yellow weed persona, but the market is not cooperating and for every purchase I make, I get stopped out of something else.

Long all names mentioned in fund; no personal positions

Comments

[Gtarras:]

"If you look at a lot of individual stocks intraday, you can see they swoon down when the S&P broke both those levels. Which shows you again, what you own means very little nowadays - we're all hostage to machines, and the program trades swoop out of everything at the same time in parallel with the overall indexes. It really is such a sea change from even 3 years ago - this is why I keep repeating it."

I observe in amazement the nearly geometrical patterns the daily charts of my stocks produce. If it is a down day, the stocks would follow an invisible line down for few hours, then a straight one, until the closing minutes when somebody need to close a position one way or another (and then the line patterns disappear). Same with up days. But for most of a day, it is a pure robot trading. UNBELIEVABLE.

Jul 08 05:16 PM

[Anthony B:]

short term trading against the robots is just like taking a random walk, i think you need to invest on at least a 3 month time horizon, earnings to earnings.

Jul 08 06:41 PM

[Trend Surfer:]

Mechanical or not, they are simply executing a set of rules determined by a human being. This is what traders must do. The 4 cornerstone are: Entry, Exit, Position size, Market. The computers do no more, no less. All data inputs assists in determine these 4 key points.

Jul 08 09:05 PM

[dcb:]

I don't think this is true, I think they actually are reading multiple other factors at the same time. orderflow, etc. if there aren't orders pusing it up they auto sell, they end to buy along trend lines and when the trend breaks to the odwn side they tend to have a little run.

I have been mucking around with trend lines a lot on free stock charts.com. My cahrts tend to have about four lines. currently all lines are downward sloping. note, we can have a nice move 35 points or so upwards without violating the primarty downtrend. we just hit an extreme in oversold today so the real bounce at the end.

I will draw a trend line from todays 14:30 action until close, invest in that upward slope and if it breaks trend it sill trigger and auto sell. On tbt which I have been following. today at 14:30 it broke slightly below the trend line> down slope form about 4 days prior. By may lines it can get to 49.60 without breakig down trend.

The computer trading is a disaster, making you think that people are actually buying to buy, and then they sell under you. I have learned that breaks above the lower trend line should be considered profit taking opportunities. I greatly suggest paying attention to where the computers take profits. not the 9 period money flow with 5 minute charting periods I find very helpful for determining when to sell. Only buy when money flow well below 20, and sell 80.


On Jul 08 09:05 PM Trend Surfer wrote:

> Mechanical or not, they are simply executing a set of rules determined
> by a human being. This is what traders must do. The 4 cornerstone
> are: Entry, Exit, Position size, Market. The computers do no more,
> no less. All data inputs assists in determine these 4 key points.

Jul 08 09:37 PM

[dcb:]

don't foret what they teach in business schools. the random walk, and they still do although anyome who watches the charts can see it aint.


On Jul 08 05:16 PM Gtarras wrote:

> "If you look at a lot of individual stocks intraday, you can see
> they swoon down when the S&P broke both those levels. Which shows
> you again, what you own means very little nowadays - we're all hostage
> to machines, and the program trades swoop out of everything at the
> same time in parallel with the overall indexes. It really is such
> a sea change from even 3 years ago - this is why I keep repeating
> it."
>
> I observe in amazement the nearly geometrical patterns the daily
> charts of my stocks produce. If it is a down day, the stocks would
> follow an invisible line down for few hours, then a straight one,
> until the closing minutes when somebody need to close a position
> one way or another (and then the line patterns disappear). Same with
> up days. But for most of a day, it is a pure robot trading. UNBELIEVABLE.

Jul 08 09:38 PM

[dcb:]

interesting observation. I just drew a real long term price channel from the market peak, I didn't inclued the breakdowns. today it basicaly touched the bottom kine of that downtrend was right before the october breakdown, but otherwise is has been a failry reliable way to enter a trade and be able to take a profit since going back to october of last year. (s&P)

Jul 08 10:30 PM

[dcb:]

if it all comes together s&P should be at about 87.90 at 10:30, this is where the two lines intersect.

Jul 08 11:00 PM

[kagame:]

none of you know what the hell you are talking about

Jul 09 12:55 AM

[walker6713:]

I also have been stopped out, market is trending down, not the time to buy.

Jul 09 11:19 AM