China's Copper Imports Have Not Slowed

Reports that China will slow down copper imports appear to be wildly exaggerated based on the latest data from China General Administration of Customs

In June, the country's imports of unwrought copper and semi-finished copper products were 475,999 tonnes. an all-time record. It is the fifth straight month that imports of unwrought and semi-finished copper products have increased.

Hendrik Visagle, Octagon Capital analyst, said:

For the last three months, reports have suggested that China will decrease its imports of copper, but each month, China announces increases in copper imports.

Recently, it was rumoured that 100,000 tonnes of copper was going to be shipped out of China and onto the [London Metals Exchange] because China had overbought; even if this is true, nothing has shown up in the LME statistics so far.

Outside of China, Mr. Visagle said copper demand has been muted, "with consumers at first destocking and now living hand-to-mouth in the face of rising copper prices."

He expects copper prices to be very choppy and move sideways over the short term, but doesn't anticipate the huge oversupply in copper that other forecasters are predicting. He maintained his C$2.50 per pound copper prices estimate for 2009.

He wrote:

We believe that China will continue with robust demand, and that consumption outside of China will pick up after the summer period, when consumers begin restocking.

Comments

[Stone Fox C...:]

to average 2.5 for the year, copper prices would need to avg maybe 2.80 in the 2nd half. Thats a huge increase in price.

Jul 10 04:57 PM

[Maxe Paul:]

My research points to a 2.20 average price this year, i think 2.50 is a little optimistic, but hey you never know.

Jul 15 08:12 AM