Friday Roundup: Running on Empty

Friday July 10, 2009

Investors need a fill-up no matter if they’re bulls or bears. So all we can do is get them earnings and economic data to push things one way or another. Today’s crummy Consumer Confidence data didn’t faze bulls too much or impress bears particularly. With volume summertime light it will be easy for trading desks to have their way with unsuspecting tourists. So be careful out there.

As stated, volume is light and breadth continues to breakdown at least on the NYSE versus the NASDAQ which continues to perform better.














































































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Comments

[Steve in Gr...:]

Thanks, Mr. Fry. I am a big fan, follow you religiously (and am not flogging a stupid website).

Looks like a big head and shoulders in SPY. That, plus the fundamentals, plus the summer season means that we should not go long U.S. equities.

Jul 11 10:25 AM

[Market Sniper:]

Weak breath, weak volume and a few thopusand charts a day say we have a bit more downside here. However, think that all the head and shoulders guys will be caught leaning the wrong way before the end of the month. Larry Williams WillGo Indicator (truely remarkable work, might want to go to Larry Williams TV and check it out at www.ireallytrade.com/T... ) is signaling a coming rally.

Jul 11 03:31 PM

[TheFounder:]

Is it only me or do you also feel we are about to fall off a cliff?
I am hanging on to my shorts...

Jul 11 03:38 PM

[Market Sniper:]

Founder, don't think that is in the cards YET. Look for a massive move down into late fall according to my work.


On Jul 11 03:38 PM TheFounder wrote:

> Is it only me or do you also feel we are about to fall off a cliff?
>
> I am hanging on to my shorts...

Jul 11 03:53 PM

[doc tari:]

What a clownshoes article.....do you know what a leading indicator is. And if you really knew what is going on today you would know that the market can be dragged out of its slump (it is by the way) by lowering its overhead and growth in GDP..

Jul 12 08:13 AM

[wheelbarrel...:]

The market is considered a leading indicator....


On Jul 12 08:13 AM doc tari wrote:

> What a clownshoes article.....do you know what a leading indicator
> is. And if you really knew what is going on today you would know
> that the market can be dragged out of its slump (it is by the way)
> by lowering its overhead and growth in GDP..

Jul 12 10:24 AM

[Alphameister:]

Market Sniper: I checked the Williams site and found him calling for a rally beginning about now.....and, in the next breath, citing the middle days of July as excellent days to trade on the short side! Didn't Williams once express an interest in running for political office? ;)

Jul 12 10:47 AM

[Steven Reed:]

I will agree the stock market could drop like a rock--which means more trouble thatn we can deal with!

The economy is in the tank and what is really being done as we sink into quick sand. Since around 1998 I have promoted developing technology parks in Missouri and this spring around 15 state representatives were on board. I even pushed for a bill that would allow all industrial parks to be changed in name and concept to technology parks. Indiana passed similar law a few years ago that allows cities to apply to establish as Tech Parks. technologypark2006.org and nonewtaxes.4t.com are websites with information on the issue.

We have the problem of not having a national economic plan, or transportation like rail, and environmental plans. Does global economy (our wages lowering while theirs rise), and service industry (we do not make things they come form overseas), ring a bell? We need new innovations to start making products of the future now. Can our government say emergency? It is going to take more than a few road projects and giving money to banks (like Bank of America that is so bloated they do not know how to help save people in trouble). Hello, we have problems of the magnitude that I think we may end up seeing 50 separate states if we do not wake up. Companies are saying hire no more get by with what we can. VP Joe Biden does get it!

Sincerely,

Steven L. Reed
stevenlloydreed@hotmai...
1441 South Estate Ave.
Springfield, MO 65804
417-882-2942

Jul 12 02:10 PM

[Deepv:]

Technical analysis is sad sad witchcraft. A company is worth the future value of all cashflows. A company that creates products or services that meets peoples needs, is well managed, and has a great b/sheet has intrinsic value. I will take it vs fiat at 0% yield today tommorrow and the next day. The skill level of people on seeking alpha is atrociously low and explains why the market is so inefficient.

Jul 12 02:44 PM

[AlfredJSenior:]

So tell me great wizards: how is your market going to fare when cap and trade is added? When value added tax is added? When those with capital are taxed at much higher rates on their profits? When health care is run by the government and the additional taxes for all that additional care is pulled from disposable income, capital and profits?

I have faith in the market and have marveled at its ability to recover in spite of a lot of Government interference. But there is a point at which the whole thing comes apart, folks move away, get out of the market, or simply get discouraged with the lack of economic opportunity and gradually lose it all.

I think a significant number of potential investors and consumers are at the same point. I think that the market is not going to recover until folks like me are firmly convinced that it can recover, that we can still make and keep some of our investments given all the above, and that its wise to spend rather than save. Until we are sure, the market isn't really going anywhere.

Forget your charts and assumptions about ordinary markets in ordinary conditions. Convince me that this market is gonna survive and thrive in this radical political change. If you can I think everything will be OK in the long run. If you can't ......................... been nice....but meaningless.

Jul 12 09:30 PM

[secmaven:]

The charts are telling us that the rally off of the March lows is over. The political foolishness in DC and Sacramento and other places where solons congregate to do their nefarious work is creating the threat of a massive series of dead weights on an already foundering economy. My advice is go short, go to cash.

Jul 12 09:56 PM

[Alex Biggs:]

Every phantom post [Cetin and your ilk] for iwww.amned.com should be shown the exit door and purged for loitering, trolling and dumbing-down the value of this site so as to appeal to those of little education or intelligence.

Jul 13 10:30 AM

[Lock and Load:]

I take it that you are referring to Market Sniper's link versus the author's article?


On Jul 12 08:13 AM doc tari wrote:

> What a clownshoes article.....do you know what a leading indicator
> is. And if you really knew what is going on today you would know
> that the market can be dragged out of its slump (it is by the way)
> by lowering its overhead and growth in GDP..

Jul 13 10:41 AM

[dragonpaw:]

"Happy days are here again...."
"Financials are our salvation..."
"Don't worry, the markets will lead us out and up..."
"Don't worry, the feds will save us..."
"just follow the charts;the patterns always repeat..."
"the IMF will save us..."
"The UN will save us..."
"The simple 'audacity ot the hopefuls' will save us..."
...if only all the b-s and the b-s-ers could save us; if my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle........

Jul 14 01:05 PM