Gold: Long Term Outlook Robust but Vulnerable Short Term

Gold has benefited greatly over the past 18 months as investors sought a safe haven from the economic and financial turmoil. Since the worst of the banking crisis eased earlier in 2009, buying pressure has lessened slightly and gold has drifted closer to $900, returning from its brief journey above $1,000. Whilst the long term case is secure and attractive to many speculators, the near-term scenario appears to offer further downward potential, and a return to the 50-day moving average circa $875 looks highly likely.

Comments

[przem23:]

The current 50 day moving average is $935. You're looking at a week moving avg.

Jul 12 11:35 AM

[Mark123:]

I see 875 as a huge buying opportunity

Jul 12 11:48 AM

[auto44:]

The last asset that I would part with and I don,t care,how far the price drops, would be my investment in gold. The inflation carnage is coming just as surely as the bubbles in stock and mortgagues and all the rest.
Don,t be fooled by recent commodity prices, outside of labor and brains they are the only real assets especially the ones that don,t rot.

Jul 12 01:13 PM

[Spartacuss:]

I am a beleiver to be sure. My problem is: this is much like 'waiting for godot".

Being a young, I think, 76, I really have to pause and wonder when, if ever I can sell and buy another round of toys. But then, that isn't the real problem at all, 'cuz I am too damn old to be playing with toys.

However, I guess, if in the end it all comes to pass at my demise, just think of the toys my heirs can buy so that all too soon, both the toys and the gold will be gone.

Perhaps the only joy to come will be the reward of knowing I was right all along and thus the ego is sated at least and then the knowledge that in the end Keynes was proven wrong and tho' we'll all be dead perhaps sanity will come back into play and the 'crats will be shown up for the vote mongerers and dead beats that they are. Of course, we all know the Republicans are cut from a different cloth, well, aren't they?

Jul 12 08:04 PM

[HA65MPH:]

SPATACUSS , ..WELL OLD BOY , I AGREE WITH YOU ..I AM A OLD GAL , ...AND MY ELDER ''CHILDREN , HAVE WATCH ME ''COLLECT ''...THEY AGREE , NONE OF US GETS OUT ALIVE , HOW EVER ...I SEE WHAT IS HAPPENING IN D.C. AND WALL STREET ,...AND I THINK THEY ARE IN THEIR OWN HELL , HOPEFULLY FOR PUTTING OUR GREAT NATION TO SHAME ....THE UNBORN WILL BE SLAVES TO THIS TRECHERIOUS(sp) CREW...VOTE THEM OUT , VOTE THEM ALL'' OUT !

Jul 13 12:06 AM

[TheeSeer:]

Gee! gold just a shiny metal? Gold 271 average close 2001 gold tonight 913 and your portfolio did what in the last 8 years?? HA HA HA
You fool, you think you can repeal the laws of supply and demand? Means of exchange are all about perceived value and gold is, was and always will be what people all over the world think of as wealth. "Good as Gold" "The Midas touch", "The Gold Standard" Etc. Bet against gold long term and loose every time. It will be around long after you are wiping youself with whatever they are calling money in the near future.

Jul 13 12:15 AM

[Tom Colangelo:]

The market will continue to move sideways based on the numbers and guidance given this week BECAUSE:

1) FIRMS will say nothing or say that the outlook looks better than the recent past. It would be a SELF-FULFILLING PROPHESY if companies with weak Q2 results give negative guidance for Q3. A literal death wish for any firm saying that they won’t improve their numbers even though the economy is beginning to level out and the stimulus is still gaining momentum.

2) The banks will report good numbers because they talk to Geithner EVERY DAY about how they are doing. He is protecting the $1 trillion we have given to banks and financial institutions and for his own sake, must know how the banks are faring. If they were in trouble, we would know about it already because nobody likes surprises.


3) Q2 earnings will be presented as improving month-to-month versus the less favorable Y-O-Y. You will be sold on how things are improving and to forget about t he Y-O-Y because it is not valid in this recession.


The market will meander until Q3 reports. In the mean time, get dividends while you wait for the market to move. Take advantage of this by getting into a strong position in some of the things that we CANNOT DO WITHOUT like:

OIL – BP (Yield = 7.43%), RDSB (Yield = 7.11%), etc.

UTILITIES - ATT (Yield = 7 %), VZ (Yield = 6.4%), VOD (Yield = 6.2%), NGG (Yield = 5.9%), CHL, etc.

FOOD - ADM (Yield = 2.1%), MOO (Total Return = 23.7%)

BANKS - NYB (Yield = 9.3%)

I hold positions in all of the mentioned stocks.

Good Luck.

Jul 13 06:35 AM

[Boxed Merlot:]

o Spartacuss:

I am a beleiver to be sure. My problem is: this is much like 'waiting for godot".

Being a young, I think, 76, I really have to pause and wonder when, if ever I can sell and buy another round of toys. But then, that isn't the real problem at all, 'cuz I am too damn old to be playing with toys.

However, I guess, if in the end it all comes to pass at my demise, just think of the toys my heirs can buy so that all too soon, both the toys and the gold will be gone.

Perhaps the only joy to come will be the reward of knowing I was right all along and thus the ego is sated at least and then the knowledge that in the end Keynes was proven wrong and tho' we'll all be dead perhaps sanity will come back into play and the 'crats will be shown up for the vote mongerers and dead beats that they are. Of course, we all know the Republicans are cut from a different cloth, well, aren't they?
----------------------...
o HA65MPH:

SPATACUSS , ..WELL OLD BOY , I AGREE WITH YOU ..I AM A OLD GAL , ...AND MY ELDER ''CHILDREN , HAVE WATCH ME ''COLLECT ''...THEY AGREE , NONE OF US GETS OUT ALIVE , HOW EVER ...I SEE WHAT IS HAPPENING IN D.C. AND WALL STREET ,...AND I THINK THEY ARE IN THEIR OWN HELL , HOPEFULLY FOR PUTTING OUR GREAT NATION TO SHAME ....THE UNBORN WILL BE SLAVES TO THIS TRECHERIOUS(sp) CREW...VOTE THEM OUT , VOTE THEM ALL'' OUT !
Jul 13 12:06 AM |Report abuse| Link | Reply
----------------------...


You’re two of the reasons I keep coming back here to SA. It’s refreshing to find people that have lived their convictions and enjoy participating in the public discourse. “Waiting for Godot”. Thanks for the visual, who needs the play when I can live it here? No doubt your heirs are already reaping the benefit of your collecting, whether they receive any of the physical symbols of your habits. You are leaving legacies of producing more than you consume, remaining engaged in the battle and attempting to improve to the end. Well Done…

For a little further reassuring view of the future, I’ve found Rev 4 and 5 imperative. It’s particularly helpful if it can be consumed without all the contemporary eschatological theology that tends to gum up the works. I enjoy a verbal reading in quiet solitude. Ah, Perspective.

Jul 13 12:37 PM

[chux08:]

"Whilst the long term case is secure and attractive to many speculators, the near-term scenario appears to offer further downward potential, and a return to the 50-day moving average circa $875 looks highly likely."


WOOOPS!!! YOU REALLY BLEW THAT ONE as it looks to be the "bottom" at $905!!!!!! As I sold some gold this morning INTO STRENGTH, who knows, maybe it was your gold I was buying there at $905??
When one buys into weakness and sells into strength as practiced & TAUGHT by Stewart Thomson at gracelandupdates.com , WHO CARES WHAT GOLD IS GOING TO DO??
IF you want to keep LOSING in the gold markets, you keep listening to clowns like this that keep "predicting" bottoms. You want to learn HOW TO MAKE MONEY IN THE LOWEST RISK INVESTMENT KNOWN TO MAN, AKA GOLD, check out Stewart Thomson at his website. Besides more of your hard earned money, WHAT ELSE HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE???

Jul 14 11:50 AM