P/E - Value Plays or Value Traps?

When analyst and market pundits come on tv to talk about stock picks, they usually talk about the "P/E" ratio (Price to Earnings) being attractive. However if you're investing in stocks and you only look at the "P/E" ratio, you might be walking into a "Value Trap". Investors ignore half the valuation picture when investors only concentrate on P/E as investors also need to consider the growth potential of the company and what investments are needed to get the earnings. The Applied Finance Group's (AFG’s) has developed a process that incorporates these factors easily into the valuation framework. Using AFG’s Valuation Metric, we have compiled a list of 20 companies with low P/E, 10 of which we consider attractive investments, and 10 of which we consider Value Traps.

By using AFG's Economic Margin framework instead of earnings alone, investors capture the true net cash flow the entire firm is generating. It is not uncommon for companies to grow P/E while having declining EMs. This occurs when the cost for the investment required to yield the increasing P/E is more than the cash flow generated from the investment. By analyzing a company’s EMs through time, investors gain a more accurate account of levels and changes in a company’s current profitability and value.

If earnings are a true proxy for performance, there should be a correlation between a company growing earnings and its price to earnings ratio. As a surprise to many investors, there is actually little to no correlation between earnings growth and price to earnings ratios (see chart below).

click to enlarge

P/E is determined by taking a stock’s price and dividing it by the last four quarter’s worth of earnings. P/E alone should not be used to value companies. P/E does not look at a company’s balance sheet thus we do not know what the costs of generating those earnings. While the P/E is determined by looking at a company’s past performance, EM bases a company’s value off its future projections. By using EM, an investor can know how their stocks are likely to perform, allowing them to clearly evaluate where to invest.

Successful companies measure results, make decisions and set strategy with the goal of creating value. A company’s performance measures must serve as a proxy for its market value creation. While important, S-T Earnings alone are a poor indicator of a company’s value, due to what they do not measure.

Economic Margin is a more complete performance measure for companies to use to guide performance and motivate employees. Executives consider Cash Flow, Investment, Competition & Risk when setting strategy. The above charts show that investors do the same.

AFG's Valuation Metric – Measures the percent to target (deviation between a stock’s current trading price and its AFG current default target price). To derive the intrinsic value of a firm, AFG uses its proprietary Valuation Model (modified discounted cash flow model).

Economic Margin - A corporate performance measurement that addresses the gaps in GAAP, eliminating distortions caused by accounting policies to measure what a company is truly earning above or below their cost of capital.

Comments

[Graham Jervis:]

This is encouraging as i saw value in BMY.

Jul 12 02:24 PM

[Fred Voetsch:]

Excellent information and presentation.

Jul 13 11:49 AM

[User 422955:]

For the largest portion of my small portfolio, I buy stocks based primarily on current dividends. I own Windstream (WIN) which currently has a 12.6% dividend. I'm interested in "earnings growth" only as it relates to the dividend's sustainability.

I see no reference, above, to dividends.

Jul 13 04:39 PM

[Living4Divi...:]

nice article

Jul 14 01:29 PM

[Michael Del...:]

User 422955,

Windstream has a trailing EPS of $0.86, an estimated forward EPS of $0.88, and is paying a dividend of $1.00. How can this dividend be safe? It cannot.

I would not be surprised to see the dividend cut to $0.50. The current price is $7.97, so the dividend yield would be 6.2%, still a good return if the price per share remains constant or rises.

Jul 14 03:23 PM