Why Michelle Obama Is Likely to Support Repros Therapeutics

The nation's First Lady is attractive, accomplished, happily married and the mother of two young girls. At the University of Chicago Medical Center, she had managerial experience in a major hospital system.

She is also black.

Because of her family situation, professional experience and role as America's first lady, Michelle is particularly sensitive to the healthcare needs of minority women.

Unfortunately, her African American ancestry means that she or female family members are likely to face problems with the reproductive system. It is a uniquely African American problem.

Here is what the web site Healthsquare.com reports:

For some reason, black women seem more likely to develop fibroids. Almost half of all black women more than 30 years of age have fibroids compared with 20 percent of white women of the same age-group. Interestingly, studies have found a low incidence of fibroids among women in Africa. Overall, however, fibroids tend to occur earlier and grow faster in black women.

From another source: "Almost every black woman you know has a fibroid," says Nelson H. Stringer, M.D., an obstetrician/gynecologist at Rush-Presbyterian-St. Luke's Medical Center in Chicago.

The problem, of course, is not limited only to black women. Some 28 million American women of childbearing age have some incidence of them; of these 8 million are symptomatic.

Here is the problem, as summarized by the Fibroid Foundation:

Uterine fibroids, or leiomyomas, are non-cancerous tumors of the uterus. They are diagnosed in about 30% of women and can cause heavy menstrual bleeding, pelvic pain, frequent urination, and infertility. Excessive menstrual bleeding may lead to anemia and fatigue. Levels of hormones produced by the body, such as estrogen, are thought to influence the occurrence of fibroids.

They are most common during a woman’s reproductive years and tend to shrink after menopause. Black women are three times more likely to be diagnosed with fibroids than white women, develop tumors at earlier ages, and have more severe disease at the time of diagnosis.

Fibroids are the leading indication for hysterectomy among U.S. women of all ages, accounting for over 200,000 hysterectomies and more than 1.2 billion dollars in health care costs each year.

Researchers at Brigham & Women's Hospital in Boston have actually identified the gene which leads to the increased incidence amongst minority women.

No orally administered treatment to deal with the problem is presently on the market.

That is why Michelle, if asked because of her political prominence and hospital management experience, will be inexorably drawn to Repros Therapeutics (RPRX), a Woodlands, Texas biocap which now has just such a drug in clinical trials before the Food and Drug Administration.

By all accounts, RPRX's Proellex has been successful in shrinking tumors and eliminating discomfort associated with fibroids and endometriosis. Proellex is a selective progesterone receptor moderator; efficacy has been shown in both fibroid and endometriosis trials.

The stock was crushed last week when Repros announced that at the highest dosage under trial, levels of liver enzymes were noted above acceptable levels. The drug is being tested in 50, 25 and 12.5 mg doses; the firm has decided to drop the 50 mg dose from its trials. There was one instance, two years ago, of an elevated liver function at the 25 mg dose, but in that case there were pre-existing conditions which could have caused the problem. There were no instances at the 12.5 mg level.

Interestingly, there was another drug (Asoprisnil) in clinical trials about a year ago. It was dropped from trials as a result of what has been described as endometrial hyperplasia, or the dangerous buildup of endometrial tissues in the patient's body while the drug is in use. (Both drugs cause suspension of the woman's normal menstrual cycle.)

Repros's response to the problem, wholeheartedly endorsed by the FDA, is to put all patients on a three-months-on, one-month-off regimen. Thus it is Mother Nature rather than medical science which cleanses the patient's body every fourth month.

The market here is large: Some 28 million American women are afflicted with fibroid or endometrial problems, of which 8 million are symptomatic. Repros management believes the true market for its drug in North America is 6 million patients. Should it gain FDA approval, it hopes to treat at least 20 percent of them.

That implies revenues of upwards of $1 billion annually.

But as the lovely wife of America's newest president, and the mother of two African American girls, Michelle Obama's concerns are far from monetary. They are to ensure that the women near and dear to her can lead happy and productive lives, safe from the risks that genetics make even more frightening than for the population at large.

The very best investment ideas can be summed up in a sentence or two, concise enough to fit on a matchbook cover. For this one, here goes:

There is at present no orally administered treatment to address fibroids and or endometriosis. Those are conditions which in the US afflict 28 million women, of whom the company sees 6 million as severely enough troubled to be the market. A course of Lupron is $1,200. Proelllex works better. Lupron's side effects are horrific. The only side effects associated with Proellex are increased liver enzymes; and those are not present at lower doses.

Proellex, if approved, will do over $1 billion in US revenues alone, and will vastly improve the lives of countless women, a disproportionate number of them African American.

It is worth a couple times that revenue, and with no more than 30 million shares ultimately outstanding, should be worth more than $70 a share.

Disclosure: I am long the stock.

Comments

[DuffBeer:]

Read this guy's bio !!! SA come on I thought you screened the
credentials of those who post. I have noticed alot of suspicious
posters writing an article who just are pushing the Mr and Mrs Teleprompterman's policies and their greatness ?
Sure I welcome and look for different opinions and insights but
just what do you get from stuff like this ?
Cheers DuffBeer

Jul 13 10:06 AM

[MattK:]

I actually started to think this guy was a serious poster than he glotes numerous times how "lovely" and "attractive" and blah blah blah Mrs Hussain is...what a joke. Why is that relevant to a stock? This joke of a leftist is a fluffer, get lost and take your pumping for the Socialist's agenda elsewhere.

Jul 14 08:48 PM

[Elliot Eise...:]

1. Besides Oprah, Michelle Obama is probably the leading black woman in America.
2. She is attractive.
3. Black women suffer inordinately from problems of the female reproductive system. As a First Lady who happens to be black, Michelle would probably support the product this company is developing.
4. Several hundred thousand hysterectomies are performed in the US each year. The efficacy of Proellex indicates many if not most of them are unnecessary.
5. Say what you will about the politics of Michelle and Barack, she (and her husband) is/are role models. She is educated, successful and from all accounts a devoted mother.
6. The market cap of Repros is minimal as biotechs go.
7. Should Proellex receive FDA approval, the 8 million American women with symptotic fibroids suggest that revenues will be a very large number.
8. I have a master's degree in economics (econometrics), was honored as a journalist for analyzing the costs and benefits of nuclear power, sat on two corporate boards, and own a position in this stock.
9. If my analysis is correct, the shares could trade to 15 or 20 times current values. You have no analysis.
10. I, too, listen to Sean Hannity (who calls the President 'Mr Telepromter' as the previous commenter does.) Yet, I am more comfortable with the take of Bill O'Reilly, who is willing to set vitriol aside and analyze the issues.
11. If successful, this company will add meaningfully to the quality of life for millions of women, a disproportionate number of them African American. If successful, it will add significantly to the wealth of its shareholders.
12. Your comment indicates a dislike of the President's and First Lady's name and politics. The previous comment suggests a dislike of the President's use of a Teleprompter.
13. Yet neither of you add in any way to the true questions here: ie, does the drug work (yes); is there sufficient funding available to complete clinical trials (yes); did the increased levels of liver enzymes in the 50 mg dose add any significant risk (no); how many women are afflicted with fibroids/endometriosis (8 million); and how large might the market for this drug be (over $1 billion.)
14. The responses to my post have added the following to our knowledge: that Matt0611 dislikes the Administration's politics; and that a duffer drinks beer.
15. I hope that each of you is short.

On Jul 14 08:48 PM Matt0611 wrote:

> I actually started to think this guy was a serious poster than he
> glotes numerous times how "lovely" and "attractive" and blah blah
> blah Mrs Hussain is...what a joke. Why is that relevant to a stock?
> This joke of a leftist is a fluffer, get lost and take your pumping
> for the Socialist's agenda elsewhere.

Jul 15 02:29 PM

[Elliot Eise...:]

What part of "Almost half of all black women more than 30 years of age have fibroids compared with 20 percent of white women of the same age-group" do you not understand?
She is our First Lady and has a 50 percent chance of developing medical problems with her reproductive system.
You may not like her family's politics, but how can your heart not go out to America's black women who face this problem?
PS. Although you apparently didnt vote for her husband, she is attractive.


On Jul 13 10:06 AM DuffBeer wrote:

> Read this guy's bio !!! SA come on I thought you screened the <br/>credentials
> of those who post. I have noticed alot of suspicious
> posters writing an article who just are pushing the Mr and Mrs Teleprompterman's
> policies and their greatness ?
> Sure I welcome and look for different opinions and insights but
>
> just what do you get from stuff like this ?
> Cheers DuffBeer

Jul 15 09:08 PM

[Elliot Eise...:]

Full disclosure: The First Lady grew up at 74th and Euclid in Chicago. She and Barack lived with her mother there when they were first married. I am from 98th and Clyde. Clyde is three blocks east of Euclid. EE


On Jul 14 08:48 PM Matt0611 wrote:

> I actually started to think this guy was a serious poster than he
> glotes numerous times how "lovely" and "attractive" and blah blah
> blah Mrs Hussain is...what a joke. Why is that relevant to a stock?
> This joke of a leftist is a fluffer, get lost and take your pumping
> for the Socialist's agenda elsewhere.

Jul 16 10:23 AM

[LT Bear Broker:]

Eisenberg is a nut case. He blames everyone but himself for all his problems, but business and private. He has had numerous problems with EVERYONE he has dealt with. He has buddied up a a guy out of Ohio and just watch that crash and burn. I know of a deal he screwed a couple of nice out of that was a resale company and then Eisenberg caused it to very soon crash and burn. What a loser! Get this nut off these boards where serious folks are trying to have a discussion. Can

Oct 29 12:31 PM