Winter's Coming for the Boomers: Part 1

Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse – or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension.

Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

Winter is coming. Are you prepared? Americans see time as their enemy. Most Americans have bought into a view of the past and future as linear. When you observe the world in linear way and things are going well, the population is happy and confident. If you view the world in a linear way and things are going badly, the population sees nothing but terrible times ahead. This linear outlook of history and the future is not rational or supported by facts. I’m convinced that world history is not on a linear path towards Armageddon and the Rapture. This belief is preached by many of the mainstream religions, but the truth is that we’ve seen this movie before and it doesn’t end in the 2^nd Coming of Christ. The American belief in a destiny of never ending progress will undergo its 3^rd major crisis period since its founding. The resolution of this crisis is 10 to 20 years in the future. The outcome will remain in doubt until the definitive resolution.

Our everyday lives clearly support a cyclical view of the world. There are 24 hours in day progressing from light to darkness and back again. There are 365 days in a year progressing from Spring to Summer to Fall to Winter, and then starting the cycle over again. A month is dictated by the four phases of the Moon. Our oceans rise and fall in a predictable pattern of high tides and low tides based on lunar phases. Even Christian religions that preach a linear view of the world, celebrate their beliefs in a predictable annual cycle encompassing the life of Christ from is birth, life, death and resurrection. The human life cycle extends 80 to 100 years going through the stages of childhood, young adulthood, midlife, and elderhood. This cycle has not changed over the whole history of earth. A long human life approximates a century of time. The rhythm of time has a regularity and cadence that is predictable on a generational level. The elites, most academics, religious zealots and social engineers scoff at the idea of predictable cycles of history. It throws a monkey wrench into their deceptive self aggrandizing agendas.

Generational Theory

We perceive our civic challenge as some vast, insoluble Rubik’s Cube. Behind each problem lies yet another, and another, ad infinitum. To fix crime we have to fix the family, but before we do that we have to fix welfare, and that means fixing our budget, and that means fixing our civic spirit, but we can’t do that without fixing moral standards, and that means fixing schools and churches, and that means fixing the inner cities, and that’s impossible unless we fix crime. There’s no fulcrum on which to rest a policy lever. People of all ages sense that something huge will have to sweep across America before the gloom can be lifted – but that’s an awareness we suppress. As a nation, we’re in deep denial.

Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

Anyone who is being honest recognizes the country is on a path towards a major calamity. We have been living beyond our means for decades and the fiscal mismanagement of the country will come to a dramatic climax in the next decade. What many deny is that this crisis was pre-ordained based upon a predictable timeline of generational forces repeating over and over again throughout history. The elites are continuously stunned that every 20 to 25 years a fresh mood engulfs the country and new generations act differently than the generations who proceeded them. The privileged are astounded because they don’t want to accept the fact that progress is not linear and that society will undergo highs and lows over the course of a century.

Strauss and Howe have been able to trace consistent 80 to 100 year generational patterns throughout modern history. The 20 to 25 year quartiles are a High (1^st Turning), an Awakening (2^nd Turning), an Unraveling (3^rd Turning), and a Crisis (4^th Turning). They have also identified four archetypes that occupy their necessary position within the 80 to 100 year cycle. These archetypes are Prophets, Nomads, Heroes, and Artists. History forms the generations as the generations create history in a repetitive dance throughout the ages. The archetypes always follow the same path. As an example, the Prophet archetype is always born during a High, comes of age during an Awakening, enters midlife during an Unraveling, and spends their elderhood during a Crisis.

Below are charts detailing the archetypes and the 12 Turnings since the founding of the American Republic. There is a remarkable consistency of timing and scope regarding the previous Turnings in our history.

FIRST TURNING (High) SECOND TURNING (Awakening) THIRD TURNING (Unraveling) FOURTH TURNING (Crisis) GENERATION ENTERING: Elderhood Nomad Hero Artist Prophet Midlife Hero Artist Prophet Nomad Young Adulthood Artist Prophet Nomad Hero Childhood Prophet Nomad Hero Artist CIVIL WAR SAECULUM Era of Good Feelings Transcendental Awakening Mexican War & Sectionalism Civil War (1794-1822) (1822-1844) (1844-1860) (1860-1865) GREAT POWER SAECULUM Reconstruction & Gilded Age Third Great Awakening World War I & Prohibition Great Depression& World War II (1865-1886) (1886-1908) (1908-1929) (1929-1946) MILLENNIAL SAECULUM American High Consciousness Revolution Culture Wars Millennial Crisis? (1946-1964) (1964-1984) (1984-2005?) (2005?-2026?)

The archetypes that comprise a human life cycle follow the same repetitive pattern throughout history and they show the same traits and attitudes as their preceding archetype. Strauss & Howe describe the archetypes as follows:

• A Prophet generation grows up as increasingly indulged post-Crisis children, comes of age as the narcissistic young crusaders of an Awakening, cultivates principle as moralistic mid-lifers, and emerges as wise elders guiding the next Crisis. (Boomers – indulged, narcissistic, moralistic, wise)

• A Nomad generation grows up as under-protected children during an Awakening, comes of age as alienated young adults of a post-Awakening world, mellows into pragmatic mid-life leaders during a Crisis, and ages into tough post-Crisis elders. (Generation X – abandoned, alienated, pragmatic, tough)

• A Hero generation grows up as increasingly protected post-Awakening children, comes of age as heroic young team workers of a Crisis, demonstrates hubris as energetic mid-lifers, and emerges as powerful elders attacked by the next Awakening. (Millennial – protected, heroic, hubristic, powerful)

• An Artist generation grows up as overprotected children during a Crisis, comes of age as the sensitive young adults of a post-Crisis world, breaks free as indecisive mid-life leaders during an Awakening, and ages into empathetic post-Awakening elders. (Homelanders – suffocated, sensitive, indecisive, empathetic)

The First Turning is referred to as a High. A High always follows a period of Crisis. The hallmark of a First Turning is a heightened sense of community and collective confidence, driven in part by the fact that the society has just come through a difficult and challenging period. Consequently, during First Turnings, societal institutions tend to be strong while individualism is weak. The post-World War II "High" of the mid-1940s through early '60s is the most recent example of a First Turning. The victory over Nazism and Fascism marked the beginning of this High. The United States was on top of the world. We exited World War II as an ascending superpower. The Marshall Plan rebuilt Europe and Japan. The middle class grew and flourished as former GI’s built the suburbs and the interstate highway system. During this period Old Prophets disappear, Nomads enter elderhood, Heroes enter midlife, Artists enter young adulthood—and a new generation of Prophets is born. These new Prophets were the Baby Boom Generation.

The Second Turning, called an Awakening, starts out feeling like the high tide of a High, with signs of advancement and prosperity everywhere. Just as everything seems to be going along swimmingly, large swaths of society begin to chaff under the social conformity of the High, beginning to gravitate to more individualistic pursuits and demanding that their personal interests come first. The "Consciousness Revolution" of the mid-1960s through early 1980s was our most recent Awakening. The trigger for this Turning was the assassination of John F. Kennedy. No one expected the turmoil that would occur over the next 10 years. Urban riots, campus riots, Civil rights protests, Kent State, Woodstock, Watergate, the feminist movement, counterculture, drugs, violent crime and family strife marked the next two decades. The New Age movement and Me Generation dominated the culture until the Reagan era. During this phase Old Nomads disappear, Heroes enter elderhood, Artists enter midlife, Prophets enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Nomads is born. These Nomads are known as Generation X.

The Third Turning, called an Unraveling, is the opposite of a High. Individualism rules, while establishments such as government, religion and military are increasingly weak and discredited. Neil Howe describes a typical Unraveling:

"This is a time when social authority feels inconsequential, the culture feels exhausted, and people feel bewildered by the number of options available to them. It is a time of celebrity circuses and a tremendous amount of freedom and creativity in our personal lives, but very little sense of public purpose.”

The most recent Third Turning began in 1984 with Ronald Reagan’s optimistic Morning in America message led to the fall of communism and the collapse of the Berlin Wall. The culture wars that have raged since the mid-1980’s have turned the initial optimism into an overwhelming sense of pessimism. There is no national consensus. The country’s leaders have ignored national problems such as unfunded Social Security and Medicare obligations, a coherent energy policy, and a deteriorating educational system. Popular culture centers around celebrity circuses like Michael Jackson’s death and Michelle Obama’s fashion choices. Americans reflect darkly on the future as growing financial and social inequality tears at the fabric of the country. The rich take advantage of the financial service economy and grow ever richer at the expense of the middle class. The poor pay no taxes and receive social transfer payments and take advantage of easy credit to live like the rich. The middle class is disillusioned and angry as manufacturing jobs leave the country. Previous periods of Unraveling in American history were also decades of cynicism and bad manners. The Roaring 20’s were the last Unraveling period that led to the stock market crash in 1929, the Great Depression and World War II. History teaches us that Third Turnings inevitably end in Fourth Turnings. During this phase, Old Heroes disappear, Artists enter elderhood, Prophets enter midlife, Nomads enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Heroes is born. The latest Hero generation is the Millenials

Lastly, there is the Fourth Turning, called a Crisis. We are currently on the verge of a Fourth Turning. This is a time of great turmoil, when society's basic institutions are torn down and rebuilt, and seemingly intractable problems are addressed. The apparently unsolvable financial dilemma of the country along with comprehension that Peak Oil has occurred will trigger the Crisis. The ultimate resolution could be rational and well thought out or it could end in a fiery fight to the death between countries or generations. During Fourth Turnings, America engages in a struggle for its very survival and redefines its identity as a nation. Large wars are often a part of this process. The American Revolution, Civil War, Great Depression, and World War II were all facets of past Fourth Turnings. During this period Old Artists disappear, Prophets enter elderhood, Nomads enter midlife, Heroes enter young adulthood—and a new generation of child Artists is born.

According to Strauss & Howe past Fourth Turnings in U.S. history we have overcome intractable problems and forged a new beginning:

“In the 1790’s, they triumphantly created the modern world’s first democratic republic. In the late 1860’s, wounded but reunited, they forged a genuine nation extending new guarantees of liberty and equality. In the late 1940’s, they constructed the most Promethean superpower ever seen.”

Sometime between today and 2025, this nation will undergo a test of its very survival. The ultimate outcome will be in doubt. Strauss and Howe paint a dire picture of the coming decades:

“The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it.”

Boomers Unraveling

America feels like it is unraveling. Though we live in an era of relative peace and comfort, we have settled into a mood of pessimism about the long-term future, fearful that our superpower nation is somehow rotting from within.

Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

Most of my adult life has been spent during the current Unraveling. In 1984 I was twenty-one years old and about to enter the workforce. The country was recovering from the worst recession in decades and the turmoil of the 1970’s was subsiding. Ronald Reagan (GI Generation) won re-election with a 49 state to 1 landslide victory over Walter Mondale using his Morning in America campaign slogan. Reagan’s tax cuts, interest rates starting a two decade decline and increased military spending combined to juice the economy. Reagan’s policies were the final dagger in the side of communism. The Soviet Union collapsed and the Berlin Wall fell. What many thought was the end of history, with democracy and capitalism victors, turned out to be a fleeting high. The initial signs of Unraveling were seen during Reagan administration. The Space Shuttle Challenger exploded, leading to questions of competence at NASA. The Iran-Contra scandal derailed the Reagan agenda as he showed signs of mental decline. The American military retreated from Lebanon after 220 Marines were killed in a terrorist attack. The stock market crashed, losing 508 points in one day, a 23% decline. The movie Wall Street with its amoral cynical view of the world captured the darkening mood of the country.

The first George Bush administration was marked by the Gulf War, which planted the poisonous seeds for our future War on Terror, and the recession which cost George Bush a 2^nd term. The unraveling could clearly be seen in the 1992 Presidential election, as Ross Perot won the most votes as a 3^rd Party candidate since 1912. During the Clinton administration the country continued to fragment, became more divisive, and cynical. Politics became gridlocked, which resulted in reduced government spending. A laissez-faire attitude was promoted by Alan Greenspan and Robert Rubin for the financial markets. This led to the Dot.com bubble and its eventual collapse. Trust in financial, government, and religious institutions continued to erode. The Oklahoma City bombing and the Columbine high school slaughter convinced many that something was very wrong with our culture. A distrustful alienation had solidified into an overwhelming gloom.

The Unraveling picked up speed during George W. Bush’s administration. The stock market continued to implode, the economy entered recession and half the country felt that George Bush was not a legitimate President. Then the country was shaken to its core by the 9/11 attack. For a brief time, the country rallied around the flag and fully supported the invasion of Afghanistan. This appeared to be the trigger for the next American Crisis. Instead, it resulted in an acceleration of the Unraveling. A true trigger for a Crisis period will rally the entire population (Fort Sumter, Pearl Harbor). The disastrous invasion of Iraq, horrific financial management of the economy by Alan Greenspan, individualistic greed and hubris of Wall Street, blatant corruption in Washington D.C., and complete lack of regulation by governmental agencies led to the collapse of the global economy in 2008. Decisive public action regarding $56 trillion of unfunded social liabilities, soaring public and private debt, and non-existent energy policy has been deferred for decades. Now there is no doubt that this paralysis and inaction will lead us into the next Crisis. The majority of Americans feel we are not on the right track, because we’re not. The coming catastrophe will truly test the mettle of our country.

continue to part 2 >>

Comments

[Graham and ...:]

For stock market implications, see Chapter 20, "Generational Cycles in the American Stock Market," of "A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing.

Jul 13 08:49 AM

[TeresaE:]

I have read other commentaries on this book, have yet to read it in its entirety.

Thanks for another look, good stuff.

We are in deep doodoo my friends. Deep.

Jul 13 10:17 AM

[jerrydd:]

Interestingly you don't talk about the real reasons for our decline, the debt Reagan made in both money and ethics, morals as he fronted for the greed on wall street while blaming it on progressive who were trying to get us out of the mess.

It's unnecessary wars, corporate welfare that sucked the people dry that is the problem. Just look at how the country recovered once the budget started getting balanced under Clinton, the only time in 30 yrs of repubs the US had increased standards of living.

Then as Bush43, repubs ran us into the ground again with oil wars, tax cuts, deregulation, debt instead of balancing the budget, fixing our long term energy, health, debt and SS problems and again leaving it to the dems to clean up the mess while obstructing them from doing just that. As a fiscal conservative the repubs have become traitors by there actions..

Jul 13 10:24 AM

[Snitzer:]

The results of a twenty year study of one's own belly button. The Truth Is, and cannot be quantified.

Jul 13 10:27 AM

[Carey Rowland:]

Very interesting. We'll keep it mind, and see how this scenario plays out as the crisis unwinds. We are due for some major structural rearrangements, although the war element in the Crisis phase does not bode well for us.

Jul 13 10:37 AM

[Doc 224899:]

I had hoped my generation of boomers would have subscribed to Churchill's dictum: If you aren't liberal in your youth you don't have a heart; and if you aren't conservative when you get old you don't have a brain. Sadly, that hasn't happened.

Jul 13 10:38 AM

[lynnybee:]

........ This was an excellent article, just wonderful. Thank you so much for writing this. My parents' generation was called THE GREATEST GENERATION. I fear the legacy of the boomer generation is that we will be labeled, THE GREEDIEST & MOST NARCISSISTIC GENERATION. My Mom always taught me that we were supposed to care for and watch out for the younger generation coming after us, we were supposed to do right by them and help them grow up .......... Looks like this message was LOST on WALL ST. & WASHINGTON D.C. ............. I'm a boomer & just ashamed of the whole sorry mess. So, we're just going to dump this entire mess in the laps of our children & grandchildren ?! The shame on WALL ST. & WASINGTON D.C. should be great.

Jul 13 10:57 AM

[swaps:]

Excellent essay by James Quinn.
For further documentation of the cycles and rhythms in nature and life you might look for a 1950s book, Cycles by Edward Dewey and Edwin Dakin.
They show chart after chart of cycles and blend them to show the rising and fall of overall activity.
Long wave cycles produced by others I believe showed a major peaking around or just after 2000.
The hubris of the Federal Reserve and interventionist economists and deliberate massive illegal immigration tried to over ride the natural cycle. In the end, they only delayed the inevitable - and maybe made it worse.
While the charts they included only went out to around 1980, a 54-year rhythm cycle of the U. S. economy on page 189 of my copy of Cycles indicated the next low point would be anticipated in 2006.

Jul 13 11:08 AM

[Dean M:]

blah blah blah

Jul 13 01:31 PM

[Dirtnap:]

As a research scientist, I greatly prerer hard numbers and fundamental analysis to material such as this. This type of reasoning is essentially anecdotal philosophy; it is interestng, but can never be proven or disproven.

I will point out that the expectations of linearity (as mentioned early in the article) are not the problem. It is the expectation of exponentiality built into our entire economy and industry that leads us to failure.

Jul 13 03:00 PM

[joes:]

The view on Baby Boomers that is portrayed in this and other works is wrong, during the lifetime of the boomers quality of life has improved and peace has expanded. We have less suffering (still a long way to go but much better than the "good old days") and more intermingling of cultures that ever before.

We are not is the terrible fix that the evangelicals or the Hobbesian's would have you believe.

Jul 13 03:35 PM

[joes:]

I don't know what part of the country you live in but the people that I know, boomers, gen X'ers and the teens all seem to be smarter than ever, less likely to believe the type of ideological BS that the greatest generation were prone to fall for, the only people close to that naive now days can be found in the 20% that still call themselves Republicans.


On Jul 13 10:57 AM lynnybee wrote:

> ........ This was an excellent article, just wonderful. Thank
> you so much for writing this. My parents' generation was called
> THE GREATEST GENERATION. I fear the legacy of the boomer generation
> is that we will be labeled, THE GREEDIEST & MOST NARCISSISTIC
> GENERATION. My Mom always taught me that we were supposed to
> care for and watch out for the younger generation coming after us,
> we were supposed to do right by them and help them grow up ..........
> Looks like this message was LOST on WALL ST. & WASHINGTON D.C.
> ............. I'm a boomer & just ashamed of the whole sorry
> mess. So, we're just going to dump this entire mess in the
> laps of our children & grandchildren ?! The shame on WALL
> ST. & WASINGTON D.C. should be great.

Jul 13 03:38 PM

[tweaks:]

We boomers belittled our elders for being materialistic, then outdid them exponentially. Narcissistic is such a mild word for the self-enamored, mirror-watching generation we have spawned.

The house passes cap and trade - a crippling tax on productivity based on ideologically driven "science" - and every news outlet turns into 24/7 MJTV! America moonwalks while Rome burns...

A pox on both their houses! Libertarians arise!

Jul 13 05:15 PM

[billyboy54:]

Give me a break. Generations are not homogeneous enough to characterize in this ridiculously simplistic and overly dramatic (and rather too religious for my taste ) way, any more than ethnic and religious groups are.

The desire to reduce the complexity of the world to emotionally manageable bites of simplistic stereotyping, lies behind much of the world's misery throughout the ages.

I like the sentiment attributed to Einstein: Things should be made as simply as possible, but no simpler.

Reducing a whole generation of human beings to one type of activity (Prophet......omg ) is beyond stupid, IMO.

It also keeps us from focusing on the reality of this mess, which joes and jerrydd both reminded us of, above.

Let's stick to finance and economics instead of pseudo-psycho-philosop...

It's the economy stupid........

Jul 13 09:58 PM

[dragonpaw:]

How ironic we have become! We are the most educated, but the least informed. We are the most wealthy ( as a nation), but feel the most burdened by the system (gov't, taxes, world pressures, self-loathing, etc). We(at least most of us), have played by the rules, but the rules have changed. We (at least our WW2 parents et al) have saved the world from tyranny. And yet we are the most vociferous(repubs and demos alike) at calling ourselves tyrants, and pleading with true tyrants (many peopling the UN), that we deserve that title.
"A house divided will fall." We are truly a house divided. As our house falls around us, we have ourselves to blame.
"We have seen the enemy, and he is us." (Pogo)

Jul 13 10:34 PM

[Trend is No...:]

reductionistic; compartmental simplicity disguised as complex thought; and irritatingly arrogant; (the best analogy I have heard for reduction is inadequate at best but far better than generational themes during the last 50 years in America; 6% of the world's population by the way... this analogy refers to a crystal where the view, position, experience, and coherence depends on the angle you are looking at it through; Oh yeah, plus its the economy stupid!

Jul 13 10:44 PM

[lynnybee:]

What part of the country am I from ? ....... the honest part. I am from a part of the country where we were all raised to be industrious, frugal & honest .......... or, some people might call us CHEAP DUTCHMEN. ........ you figure it out where I'm from. Suffice it to say, I am PROUD to have been raised painfully honest, fiscally responsible & mindful of the fact that there are younger people coming up under my generation who need the older generations guidance & wisdom to make it in this world. I'll say it again, WHERE IS THE SHAME for what has happened to our country because of the politics and WALL ST. ? ........ sincerely,


On Jul 13 03:38 PM joes wrote:

> I don't know what part of the country you live in but the people
> that I know, boomers, gen X'ers and the teens all seem to be smarter
> than ever, less likely to believe the type of ideological BS that
> the greatest generation were prone to fall for, the only people close
> to that naive now days can be found in the 20% that still call themselves
> Republicans.

Jul 13 11:19 PM

[clandavidson:]

I am a human. I was born selfish. If you are a human, you were born selfish. If we had not been selfish, we might not have survived and most assurredly neither of us might never have reached adluthood. Selfishness is the most powerful motivation that any of us posess. The second most powerful motivation that any human has, is emobodied in some moral discipline, be it an honest attempt to live out the tenets of a religious faith or other moral discipline. The latter runs a poor second in most of us. As long as our respective paths do not cross, we may get along just fine. It is incumbent upon each of us to identify, subscribe to and firmly adhere to some code of moral discipline. If it is to be, it is up to me. and ..........you, and ...... you, and ... you, ad infinitum! Why not just quit blaming one another and take responsibility for our respective behavior towards one another? No nation and particularly no democracy will survive internibly without some level of workable moral discipline.

Love God and love one another as well as we love ourselves! The latter is inspired from Deuteronomy 6:5 and Leviticus 19:18b.

Jul 13 11:43 PM

[Doug Roberts:]

I loved it. I look forward to part 2.

Reject blaming wall street and Republicans. Blame belongs to the entire country. Our country has become a self-absorbed bubble of entitlement. I don't want things to get ugly, but we'll be lucky to have things only as bad as the Depression - in that era we at least were the creditor nation of the world.

Jul 14 12:07 AM

[snagglesnarf:]

What a load of egghead crap. (part 1)

Jul 14 02:24 AM

[pockyclips ...:]

Boomers are coming to their senses; we've been living a paper prosperity for the last 25 to 30 years. No real wealth has been accumulated by the middle class. We've got house(s) full of imported
junk, but can't afford the house, health care, or to retire.

I'm a bit disappointed that the tipping point wasn't mentioned. 1971, when we became hostages to Arab oil, and took the dollar off the gold standard.

Jul 14 08:35 AM

[tonyv414:]

The problems of America are not generational and the blame cannot be strewn across the board. I've been living on this planet since 1950 and I can agree with very little of Strauss and Howe or any of this XYZ Generational blather. Human societies, regardless of generational "gaps", have always been oligarchial. Social Reality is purely Darwinian and its course is subject to the 90-10 rule just like anything else. 10% of the population is responsible for 90% of society's problems. And that 10% is drawn from all generations.

Strauss and Howe is in that 10%. Their "Theory" is just another short-term Intellectualist Paradigm to guide and amuse politicians, academia, and the media in their little world of dinner parties and fundraisers - here today and gone tomorrow, only to be replaced by yet another pointless paradigm. Reality has no use for paradigms, it is far too complex for such nonsense.

Jul 14 08:51 AM

[James Quinn:]

Read it before dismissing it. Where did your 90-10 rule come from. Sounds like a theory to me. Human societies have always been oligarchial. Sounds like a theory to me.

Jul 14 09:00 AM

[Clobbersaurus:]

See "Historicism" by either Popper or (Leo) Strauss.

You're playing a dangerous game by looking back through the frosted windows of history, trying to draw patterns. Then, you take those patterns and attempt to derive the "laws of human existence" or the "laws of republics". I understand what this is: it's a call for clarity in uncertain times. Now, more than ever, we don't know where we are headed, so we naturally try and look back through history to categorize, organize and 'lay the tracks' so that the current situation will go along on rails (so to speak).

Making statements like "humans have always been oligarchial" is cynical and depressing - and most likely a symptom of the times. That's all the "mass psychology" I'm going to try and do. Just please don't try and shout down your detractors because they point out an exception or disagree with you.

See also "confirmation bias" (referencing Part 2). Attempting to place Barack Obama as the "Nomad" only works IF he's elected. If McCain had been elected, you probably couldn't make the same claim. Hence, you will now either claim that it was "pre-ordained" by history or be subject to the truth that your "Nomad" claim can ONLY be made in retrospect (see again "historicism"). Thus, you are stuck between choosing Historicism or Pre-Destination. You claim to know the cycles of history - why are you telling us?

Finally, quit it with "Peak Oil". This is probably the most controversial part of this response. I don't believe in these Malthusian Points because they don't exist. They are constantly shifting along with innovation, and a proper human response is inevitable. Circumstances in the present will never equate to those in the past. As Mark Twain said, "History doesn't repeat itself - but it rhymes".

Call me an optimist, I guess.

Jul 14 09:54 AM

[Clobbersaurus:]

The oligarchial comment was directed at the above commentor, not the author. My apologies.


On Jul 14 09:54 AM Clobbersaurus wrote:

> See "Historicism" by either Popper or (Leo) Strauss.
>
> You're playing a dangerous game by looking back through the frosted
> windows of history, trying to draw patterns. Then, you take those
> patterns and attempt to derive the "laws of human existence" or the
> "laws of republics". I understand what this is: it's a call for clarity
> in uncertain times. Now, more than ever, we don't know where we are
> headed, so we naturally try and look back through history to categorize,
> organize and 'lay the tracks' so that the current situation will
> go along on rails (so to speak).
>
> Making statements like "humans have always been oligarchial" is cynical
> and depressing - and most likely a symptom of the times. That's all
> the "mass psychology" I'm going to try and do. Just please don't
> try and shout down your detractors because they point out an exception
> or disagree with you.
>
> See also "confirmation bias" (referencing Part 2). Attempting to
> place Barack Obama as the "Nomad" only works IF he's elected. If
> McCain had been elected, you probably couldn't make the same claim.
> Hence, you will now either claim that it was "pre-ordained" by history
> or be subject to the truth that your "Nomad" claim can ONLY be made
> in retrospect (see again "historicism"). Thus, you are stuck between
> choosing Historicism or Pre-Destination. You claim to know the cycles
> of history - why are you telling us?
>
> Finally, quit it with "Peak Oil". This is probably the most controversial
> part of this response. I don't believe in these Malthusian Points
> because they don't exist. They are constantly shifting along with
> innovation, and a proper human response is inevitable. Circumstances
> in the present will never equate to those in the past. As Mark Twain
> said, "History doesn't repeat itself - but it rhymes".
>
> Call me an optimist, I guess.

Jul 14 10:20 AM

[James Quinn:]

Have you read the 4th Turning? If not, then your analysis is not complete. You can't dismiss a theory you know nothing about.

Don't assume what I think. You clearly don't understand the theory by your reference of Obama being elected. The leader in all past Crisis periods has been a Prophet, not a Nomad. That is why I find it likely that Obama will be replaced by a Boomer in 2012.


On Jul 14 09:54 AM Clobbersaurus wrote:

> See "Historicism" by either Popper or (Leo) Strauss.
>
> You're playing a dangerous game by looking back through the frosted
> windows of history, trying to draw patterns. Then, you take those
> patterns and attempt to derive the "laws of human existence" or the
> "laws of republics". I understand what this is: it's a call for clarity
> in uncertain times. Now, more than ever, we don't know where we are
> headed, so we naturally try and look back through history to categorize,
> organize and 'lay the tracks' so that the current situation will
> go along on rails (so to speak).
>
> Making statements like "humans have always been oligarchial" is cynical
> and depressing - and most likely a symptom of the times. That's all
> the "mass psychology" I'm going to try and do. Just please don't
> try and shout down your detractors because they point out an exception
> or disagree with you.
>
> See also "confirmation bias" (referencing Part 2). Attempting to
> place Barack Obama as the "Nomad" only works IF he's elected. If
> McCain had been elected, you probably couldn't make the same claim.
> Hence, you will now either claim that it was "pre-ordained" by history
> or be subject to the truth that your "Nomad" claim can ONLY be made
> in retrospect (see again "historicism"). Thus, you are stuck between
> choosing Historicism or Pre-Destination. You claim to know the cycles
> of history - why are you telling us?
>
> Finally, quit it with "Peak Oil". This is probably the most controversial
> part of this response. I don't believe in these Malthusian Points
> because they don't exist. They are constantly shifting along with
> innovation, and a proper human response is inevitable. Circumstances
> in the present will never equate to those in the past. As Mark Twain
> said, "History doesn't repeat itself - but it rhymes".
>
> Call me an optimist, I guess.

Jul 14 10:49 AM

[htry500:]

Interesting blog, but it’s missing an important part of the equation: Generation Jones, born 1954-1965, between the Boomers and Generation X. Google Generation Jones, and you’ll see it’s gotten a ton of media attention, and many top commentators from many top publications and networks (Washington Post, Time magazine, NBC, Newsweek, ABC, etc.) now specifically use this term. In fact, the Associated Press' annual Trend Report chose the Rise of Generation Jones as the #1 trend of 2009.

While Strauss and Howe's work has made important contributions, let's keep in mind that that most generation experts do not agree with their old school use of long 20 year generations (most experts believe that generations are getting shorter, around 10-15 years, because of the acceleration of culture).

It is important to distinguish between the post-WWII demographic boom in births vs. the cultural generations born during that era. Generations are a function of the common formative experiences of its members, not the fertility rates of its parents. Many experts now believe it breaks down more or less this way:

DEMOGRAPHIC boom in babies: 1946-1964

Baby Boom GENERATION: 1942-1953

Generation Jones: 1954-1965

Generation X: 1966-1978


Here is an op-ed about GenJones as the new generation of leadership in USA TODAY:
www.usatoday.com/print...

Here's a page with a good overview of recent media interest in GenJones:
generationjones.com/20...

Jul 14 10:56 AM

[Clobbersaurus:]

I very much do understand the theory. The theory is quite simple: time is cyclical, and is keyed on events that are reflected in a certain 'type' of person. It's like a mix of many Eastern philosophies and Nietzsche (the 'superman' idea). Please, seriously, read about Historicism and then try and come back and think about this theory.

My reference to Obama is simple logic - not a comprehension problem. You've set up, essentially, four boxes and then try to squeeze people into them by selecting, oh, this attribute here and then a little bit of that one there until - voila! Obama is a Nomad, and a "Prophet" will lead us out of the next "Crisis". The Prophet, of course, will fit your vague descriptions of a personality. Of course, none of these definitions work in advance - only in retrospect. You have selected ONE and made him a representation of the WHOLE. That is a logical and scientific fallacy. I'm a "Hero", but what if I want to be a "Prophet" and start to follow that definition? Am I not allowed to because I wasn't raised during a certain epoch? Why can't I "emerge wiser" or be as sensitive as an Artist? Where are my CHOICES? Unless you don't believe in choices, your model is thus broken...and now you should see the problem with this "cyclical" and predictive model - there is no Free Will.

Gee, that's great. No Free Will. Let's just drift along from Crisis to Awakening to whatever else it is. I'm really not trying to mock this theory, but your responses have little to do with logic and consistently consist of "you do not understand the theory".

You, of course, may be right about Obama being replaced. It would NOTHING to do with the fact that he is a "Nomad" making way for the "Prophet". It would have to do with the fact that he made crappy choices and lost his support.

Everyone's got a theory. If it makes you feel better, great. Just don't come on an economics board with an esoteric philosophical argument and not expect people to reject it. I also worry that some of our economic minds use this as a basis for their financial planning. Aren't the Prophets supposed to "emerg[e] as wise elders guiding the next Crisis". Newsflash - we're in it, pal. It may not seem like a Crisis to you, but then again, I doubt you're a recent grad and thus a member of the demographic hardest hit by this "Unraveling". But that would be playing into the whole generational thing, wouldn't it?

On Jul 14 10:49 AM James Quinn wrote:

> Have you read the 4th Turning? If not, then your analysis is not
> complete. You can't dismiss a theory you know nothing about.
>
> Don't assume what I think. You clearly don't understand the theory
> by your reference of Obama being elected. The leader in all past
> Crisis periods has been a Prophet, not a Nomad. That is why I find
> it likely that Obama will be replaced by a Boomer in 2012.

Jul 14 12:06 PM

[James Quinn:]

Have you read the book?


On Jul 14 12:06 PM Clobbersaurus wrote:

> I very much do understand the theory. The theory is quite simple:
> time is cyclical, and is keyed on events that are reflected in a
> certain 'type' of person. It's like a mix of many Eastern philosophies
> and Nietzsche (the 'superman' idea). Please, seriously, read about
> Historicism and then try and come back and think about this theory.
>
>
> My reference to Obama is simple logic - not a comprehension problem.
> You've set up, essentially, four boxes and then try to squeeze people
> into them by selecting, oh, this attribute here and then a little
> bit of that one there until - voila! Obama is a Nomad, and a "Prophet"
> will lead us out of the next "Crisis". The Prophet, of course, will
> fit your vague descriptions of a personality. Of course, none of
> these definitions work in advance - only in retrospect. You have
> selected ONE and made him a representation of the WHOLE. That is
> a logical and scientific fallacy. I'm a "Hero", but what if I want
> to be a "Prophet" and start to follow that definition? Am I not allowed
> to because I wasn't raised during a certain epoch? Why can't I "emerge
> wiser" or be as sensitive as an Artist? Where are my CHOICES? Unless
> you don't believe in choices, your model is thus broken...and now
> you should see the problem with this "cyclical" and predictive model
> - there is no Free Will.
>
> Gee, that's great. No Free Will. Let's just drift along from Crisis
> to Awakening to whatever else it is. I'm really not trying to mock
> this theory, but your responses have little to do with logic and
> consistently consist of "you do not understand the theory".
>
> You, of course, may be right about Obama being replaced. It would
> NOTHING to do with the fact that he is a "Nomad" making way for the
> "Prophet". It would have to do with the fact that he made crappy
> choices and lost his support.
>
> Everyone's got a theory. If it makes you feel better, great. Just
> don't come on an economics board with an esoteric philosophical argument
> and not expect people to reject it. I also worry that some of our
> economic minds use this as a basis for their financial planning.
> Aren't the Prophets supposed to "emerg[e] as wise elders guiding
> the next Crisis". Newsflash - we're in it, pal. It may not seem like
> a Crisis to you, but then again, I doubt you're a recent grad and
> thus a member of the demographic hardest hit by this "Unraveling".
> But that would be playing into the whole generational thing, wouldn't
> it?
>
> On Jul 14 10:49 AM James Quinn wrote:

Jul 14 12:08 PM

[Clobbersaurus:]

Have you read my response???

Thanks to Freya for pointing out some important facts via good checking.

Truth be told, I have not read the entire book. I have done my research on it. And if I need to read an ENTIRE BOOK to understand a theory, it is not a theory - more like a....manifesto?


On Jul 14 12:08 PM James Quinn wrote:

> Have you read the book?

Jul 14 12:56 PM

[Analyste de...:]

Eschatological rubbish, mostly. The very real problems we face have little to do with this theory. (To abuse the word 'theory.')

Am I the only one who has noticed this marketing piece gets posted on SA every six months or so?

I wouldn't waste a nickel on this book nor burden anyone at my public library to request a copy. Sorry.

Jul 14 01:27 PM

[James Quinn:]

You mean your manifesto answers? You haven't read the book. You googled 4th Turning and now you're an expert. I love when people take shots at an article and are outraged when I fire back at them. You and Freya are little thin skinned. I don't give a crap what SA does with my responses. If you don't like it, don't read my articles.


On Jul 14 12:56 PM Clobbersaurus wrote:

> Have you read my response???
>
> Thanks to Freya for pointing out some important facts via good checking.
>
>
> Truth be told, I have not read the entire book. I have done my research
> on it. And if I need to read an ENTIRE BOOK to understand a theory,
> it is not a theory - more like a....manifesto?

Jul 14 01:49 PM

[wtp:]

Because Strauss and Howe publish the theory does not make them right. Because some people disagree does not make them (S & H) wrong. The proper function of a theory, especially a social theory -- unless its bearer is holding a gun -- is to enable us broaden our perspective (if we choose to) in making our own conclusions and decisions, not to dictate personal choices or threaten personal world-views (that's the function of PC). Intellectual rigidity, not theory, is the larger threat.
Come on, chill out.

Jul 14 02:58 PM

[walleke:]

The only historical cycles I see are the Earth rotating on its axis, the Earth orbiting the sun, and the moon orbiting the Earth. The western world gave up on circular time with Isaac Newton. Now we know the cycles are in space, not time. Circular time is for pre-scientific societies.

A human life is not 80-100 years except presently in this era of geriatric medicine. Most animals die shortly after reproduction. Human beings are different because we don't have litters and are born largely undeveloped compared to other apes and mammals, and therefore require much nurturing. We therefore evolved to live long enough to care for our children until they have children. The natural human lifespan is 40-60 years.

It is good to have an open mind, but do not confuse open with gullible. It is equally good to be a critical thinker. I know enough science and enough history to know that there can be no theory of history.

Jul 14 03:06 PM

[systemBuilder:]

It's obvious thata Reagan started the USA Debt Bubble, and you can see it start to explode in the 82-84 time period right here :

www.ece.ubc.ca/~gillies/debt/Debt_Bu...

Based on Bubblenomics, I no longer think that Bush43 was a bad president. I thought he was bad at the time, but he HELD THE LINE on the debt bubble, as did Clinton 1 (NOT Clinton 2). So, from the perspective of fiscal Management, Bush Senior was BY ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE better president than Bush Jr and Clinton 2.

And, I'm having to rethink my opinion of Hoover too, as by doing nothing he ensured that the main jerks responsible for the great depression got punished, whereas Obama (who I voted for) seems to want to BONUS the perpetrators of the GREATer depression.

Jul 14 04:38 PM

[Brad Johnson:]

I'm glad most of the Baby Boomer generation will retire penniless, they're the ones most responsible for destroying this once great nation.

I love that their nest eggs were destroyed so close to their retirement. Justice has been served.

Jul 14 05:26 PM

[Alphameister:]

Cycles are found throughout nature, human nature included. All generalities are limited, but that does not eliminate their usefulness. I found the article both interesting and persuasive without getting too caught up in such concepts as artists, prophets, nomads, etc. In any case, it seems very clear to me that the US is facing a "day of reckoning" that could easily last a decade or two.

Jul 14 10:44 PM

[Born in 46:]

Haven't read the book, only the JQuinn essay (I & II). Types have been categorized at least since Aristotle. Great writers (Shakespeare, Tolstoy, Dostoevsky, Balzac, Dickens...) use type to develop characters. Hundreds of books have been published in the last 30 years on the subject of psychological types. We need Arts AND Sciences. Special AND General Knowledge. Theory AND Practice. I haven't been a truly Happy Camper since Tricky Dicky sent me to VietNam, but I'd rather be here than in China and it seems a lot of Chinese feel the same way. I don't have overwhelming confidence in our elected officials (the best $$ can buy!) to deal with the problems we have now, and I "hope" the future will not become a recurring nightmare of Nancy Pelosi popping out of the cookoo clock of Congress every time it strikes "Crisis" and chirping: "We have to do SOMEthing!" I may be hallucinating, but it appears that Mr. Obama may (finally!) be flashing a bit of spine with: "Let's hold off with Son of Bailout until we give Mom & Dad B. a little more time." Also, that pesky Atty. Gen. of his may be developing a nose for high crimes and misdemeanors.

Jul 15 01:16 AM

[harammph:]

Mr. JQ: Since Freya did not take a "shot" at your Article but Rather at your responses to anyone making a Query that You don't like, your following comments tell the whole story:

"You googled 4th Turning and now you're an expert. I love when people take shots at an article and are outraged when I fire back at them. You and Freya are little thin skinned. I don't give a crap what SA does with my responses. If you don't like it, d...".

Another one of your comments:

"I have no need to advertise, since I make no money from my site. I like intelligent discussions of the issues. The people I reply to with a "lack of civility" are the pompous know it alls who dismiss the facts because it doesn't fit their comfortable view of the world. I believe in the eye for an eye approach. If you throw a rock at me, I'll throw it right back."

"You have no need to advertise", you say. Then Why is SA littered with your "wordless" ads?

Advertising is Advertising. It doesn't matter whether its done for Money, Respect, Personal Glory or Zealotry for a certain view.

The People who disagree with you are "Pompous know it alls".

I agree with the Article, I disagree with your rude, abusive responses.

Jul 15 02:55 AM

[spald_fr:]

On Jul 14 01:49 PM James Quinn wrote:
>>> If you don't like it, don't read my articles.<<<

Best advice you've given on this thread, imo.

Jul 15 09:01 AM

[Swashbuckler:]

This particular article didn't do a lot for me. But I enjoy most of this author's posts. What does intrigue me,though, is how some readers are quick to dis the author and then start crying when he responds. IMO it is foolish to slam the author and expect silence in return. You would think people would have more to do than to try to provoke a pi$$ing match with an author on SA.

Jul 15 10:05 AM

[Vienna:]

I will follow in this tone, and the world does not wonder any more why the US keeps on screwing up.

Jul 15 10:12 AM

[hksche2000:]

"I will point out that the expectations of linearity (as mentioned early in the article) are not the problem. It is the expectation of exponentiality built into our entire economy and industry that leads us to failure."
Thing in nature -including the human herd- tend to follow natural log e-functions. Vicious feedback loops on Wallstreet (greed/fear, leverage, derivatives...) and in politics (wars go on and on, missions rearly accomplished; SS/medicare problems not addressed grow exponentially even absent boomers ...), if anything, tend to exaggerate this exponential feature. Hence, more often than not, it is our NOT anticipating and dealing preemptively with this "exponentiality built into our entire economy and industry (and politics!) that leads us to failure."


On Jul 13 03:00 PM Dirtnap wrote:

> As a research scientist, I greatly prerer hard numbers and fundamental
> analysis to material such as this. This type of reasoning is essentially
> anecdotal philosophy; it is interestng, but can never be proven or
> disproven.
>
> I will point out that the expectations of linearity (as mentioned
> early in the article) are not the problem. It is the expectation
> of exponentiality built into our entire economy and industry that
> leads us to failure.

Jul 15 01:11 PM

[Dialectical...:]

I know enough philosophy to know it is possible to have a theory of ANYTHING. It's just a theory, mind you.

On Jul 14 03:06 PM walleke wrote:


> It is good to have an open mind, but do not confuse open with gullible.
> It is equally good to be a critical thinker. I know enough science
> and enough history to know that there can be no theory of history.

Jul 15 08:06 PM

[MSimon:]

Fixing crime is not so hard. Its roots are the same as they were in in the 1920s. Prohibition.

So far we have not the will to look at that problem.

What Prohibition points out is that you can't fix people's bad habits by government fiat. In fact drug use is looking more and more like self medication. If that is so then we are punishing people who need help and are in fact getting what we deserve - social breakdown.

Jul 16 01:08 AM

[MSimon:]

I am a boomer who has already retired penniless. It is a pretty good life. Central air, hot and cold running water, 10 Cray 1s on my desktop, etc. etc. etc.

I live in many ways better than the kings of 1900.

As to boomers having done us in? I think that the Social Security mess was started by FDR. And what have us boomers given all you folks? The microprocessor revolution.

I have one last trick in my bag (I was there at the start of the microprocessor revolution when hackers were the white hats - I was one of those hackers) - Polywell Fusion. If it works you will get cheap space travel and a solution for energy problems that are good for at least 10,000 years.

Jul 16 01:19 AM

[Vienna:]

In Culham/England, Munich/Germany and Cadarache/France there area Tokamak reactors, which is able to run a few second using Fusion technology with Deuterium and Tricium. In China, Hefei they are also running one. According to Wikipedia there are 21 Tokamaks running worldwide, 10 of these in Europe.

OPtimist say that the first fusion reactors might be able to go online in 50 years. Till then humanity must do everything to expand the reserves of fusile fuel to the maximum.
High tax on energy - and fuck those who need cheap energy to fuel their fat asses.


On Jul 16 01:19 AM MSimon wrote:

> I am a boomer who has already retired penniless. It is a pretty good
> life. Central air, hot and cold running water, 10 Cray 1s on my desktop,
> etc. etc. etc.
>
> I live in many ways better than the kings of 1900.
>
> As to boomers having done us in? I think that the Social Security
> mess was started by FDR. And what have us boomers given all you folks?
> The microprocessor revolution.
>
> I have one last trick in my bag (I was there at the start of the
> microprocessor revolution when hackers were the white hats - I was
> one of those hackers) - Polywell Fusion. If it works you will get
> cheap space travel and a solution for energy problems that are good
> for at least 10,000 years.

Jul 16 02:55 AM

[Elk Tart:]

It is in human nature to try to evidence the future from past events. On a problem so complex as this, it simply cannot be done. There is no basis for confident predictions of the year of the next "turning." Ludicrous. But the underlying problems that are ruining this formerly great nation (and this is a 1957 Prophet talking;) are well-described in the article, and deserve far more urgent attention than they are receiving.

Jul 16 04:38 PM