Winter's Coming for the Boomers: Part 2 171 comments
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Generation X – Assuming Command
We yearn for civic character but satisfy ourselves with symbolic gestures and celebrity circuses. We perceive no greatness in our leaders, a new meanness in ourselves. Small wonder that each new election brings a new jolt, its aftermath a new disappointment. Not long ago, America was more than the sum of its parts. Now, it is less. Around World War II, we were proud as a people but modest as individuals. Fewer than two people in ten said yes when asked, Are you a very important person? Today, more than six in ten say yes. Where we once thought ourselves collectively strong, we now regard ourselves as individually entitled. Yet even while we exalt our own personal growth, we realize that millions of self-actualized persons don’t add up to an actualized society.
Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
Barack Obama became the 1st Generation X-er to be elected President of the United States. His background is a classic Nomad story. He has lived the life of a wanderer, living all over the globe, a child of divorce, fatherless, raised by grandparents, and a free agent in his career. Generation X grew up as abandoned children and alienated young adults. Generation X leaders will be pragmatic, savvy and practical. Obama has proven thus far to be pragmatic and able to get his agenda initiated. Previous Nomad leaders who proved to be highly competent doers during a time of Crisis include Dwight D. Eisenhower, George Patton, and Harry Truman. You may not agree with Obama’s plans or policies, but it is clear to anyone that he is an intelligent, pragmatic man that will institute dramatic change in the policies of the United States.
It is very likely that Barack Obama will lead the country into the next Crisis. He will not lead us out of the Crisis, as it is unlikely to subside until 2025. As the Unraveling transitions into Crisis the apathy reflected in historic low voter turnout will reverse itself as Americans become mobilized by the Crisis. The economy always undergoes wrenching transformations during a Crisis. The U.S. economy will likely be racked by panic, depression, inflation and war. We have witnessed a preliminary financial panic, but the real panic will be much more traumatic. The separateness and blame witnessed during the Unraveling will transform into gathering and family togetherness. McMansions will become useful as three generations will more frequently live under one roof. Immigration will decline as the population will fear outsiders and place strict restrictions on foreigners entering the country. During the coming crisis, our culture will likely be cleansed, censored, and harnessed for the public good. The current ongoing financial debacle will ultimately contribute to the Crisis causing trigger of a worldwide oil shortage.
Peak Oil + Green Energy = Crisis
"But I guess it just reminds me that as a society, we don't have the ability to actually come to grips with a crisis until it hits us in the face. I am discouraged enough now to think that we're going to have to have a really nasty shock before we wake people up. The most optimistic estimate for the average depletion rate of the world's currently producing oilfields is between 4% and 5% annually, or about four million barrels per day at our current rate of production. That means that each year we must find enough new oil to first replace those four million barrels of lost daily production before we even add enough to meet new demand. This is all the more worrisome because world oil discovery of new reserves has been slowing since the mid-20th century.”
Matt Simmons
click to enlarge
Matt Simmons has been a lone voice in the wilderness warning Americans about the impending crisis that will be caused by Peak Oil. His prediction of a worldwide peak in crude oil production at 73 million barrels per day in 2005 has proved correct. Worldwide total liquids production peaked at 86 million barrels in 2008. All of the easy oil and gas in the world has been found. Additional supplies will be found deep below the ocean, in challenging arctic regions, in tar sands, and shale. It will be dramatically more expensive to extract oil from these sources. Oil discoveries have been in a steady decline since the 1970’s.
The United States has been dependent on 600 million barrels of oil from Mexico every year. By 2012 Mexico will become a net importer of oil, so 600 million barrels of oil will need to be replaced. Iran’s oil production is in decline as capital investment has been ignored for years. Russia’s production has peaked. Saudi Arabia continues to lie about its ability to ramp up production. Their oil fields are 40 years old and in terminal decline. By 2012, the world will only be able to produce 80 million barrels per day. There is no doubt that demand in 2012 will be higher than today’s 85 million barrels per day as China, India and other developing countries continue to grow. Even a Wall Street economist could predict what will happen to prices.
Peak oil will have the most dramatic affect on America. We have 5% of the world’s population, but use 25% of the world’s energy. Practically 85% of the world barely uses energy. World population of 7 billion will likely grow to 10 billion by 2030. China and India both are selling more cars annually than the U.S. As people throughout the world enter the middle class, they want cars, TVs, and modern appliances. Energy demand cannot be turned back. Infrastructure constraints will exacerbate the coming energy crisis. The NIMBY crowd has managed to keep any refineries from being built in the U.S. since 1976. Our energy infrastructure is made of steel and is rusting away. It would take trillions to upgrade the energy system. These investments will not be made. The geologists and other experienced oil men are retiring, and no one is replacing them. Matt Simmons’ recommendation for the upcoming crisis is DOA:
"We should basically be going back to creating a village economy, so that we really reduce the energy intensity of how we live," he says. "We need big time conservation, not feel-good conservation. Make things where they're used. You'll end long-distance commuting, and we have the tools to do that now with webcams. Grow food locally. Grow food in your backyard. If they're not commuting, people will have time to do that."
The Green Agenda that is sweeping the country and is fully supported by the Obama administration will be the final nail in the coffin. The blueprint of success for the Green Agenda is ethanol. Government subsidized a fuel that required more energy to produce than it provides. The mal-investment in ethanol plants led to a boom and the usual bust when government interferes in the free markets. The use of corn for fuel caused prices to rise for other food crops and meat. With the crash in oil prices, ethanol plants have been going bankrupt at an accelerating rate. Renewable energy and green jobs are the catch phrases being used by Obama and the Democrats pushing the Al Gore led agenda.
“I believe it is appropriate to have an 'over-representation' of the facts on how dangerous it is, as a predicate for opening up the audience."
Al Gore
I’d like to know the difference between over-representation and lying. The real inconvenient truth is that the United States depends on oil, natural gas, and coal to supply 87% of its energy, with nuclear power providing another 7%. The beloved solar, wind and geothermal sources supply 1.5% of our energy needs. Harry Reid and his green disciples believe coal and oil are ruining the world. They want to eliminate the fuels that power 87% of our economy. Maybe they should just keep implementing their economic policies and keep the country in a permanent recession, as carbon emissions have declined over the last three years. Their false science claims, scare tactics in grade schools, and use of green catch phrases will not generate the energy needed to run this country.
The green extremists want to eliminate coal as an energy source in the U.S. Even though nuclear energy emits no Carbon Dioxide, it is unacceptable to the green extremists. There is just one small problem. The chart below shows that coal and nuclear provide 72% of all the electric power in the United States. Renewable energy sounds good, but it cannot replace our existing sources. Inconvenient facts like no ability to distribute any energy created by wind and solar to the places that use the energy are completely ignored by green extremists. Our transportation system depends on oil to provide 96% of its energy. I don’t think anyone will be commuting to work in a solar car or wind powered car in the near future. A plug in car will require electric power that comes from coal and nuclear plants.
The Cap & Trade Energy bill will eventually be rammed through by the Democratic controlled Congress. It is being spun as a bill that will reduce greenhouse gases and create thousands of green jobs. What is a green job? Will we turn unemployed investment bankers and auto salesmen into solar panel and wind turbine manufacturers? The green agenda bill will penalize manufacturers, refineries, natural gas producers and electric utilities with increased taxes. Sounds great. Let’s penalize the polluters. Every company that produces something will pass their costs along to their customers. This bill will increase the average family’s energy costs by $1,500 per year. It will convince many companies to move operations and jobs to China and India where these regulations don’t apply. Our agriculture industry will bear the brunt of this burden as they use tremendous amounts of energy in farming. Expect food costs to go up a lot. Since low income families spend a greater percentage of their income on energy, this bill will damage their finances the most. It will also trigger the coming Crisis.
20 Year Crisis - Financial Collapse, War, Rebirth
“Most of today’s adult Americans grew up in a society whose citizens dreamed of perpetually improving outcomes: better jobs, fatter wallets, stronger government, finer culture, nicer families, smarter kids, all the usual fruits of progress. Today, deep into a Third Turning, these goals often feel like they are slipping away. Many of us wish we could rewind time, but we know we can’t – and we fear for our children and grandchildren.”
Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
The skies are darkening and a cold wind is beginning to blow. Autumn began with bright skies and warm breezes, but the atmosphere has gotten bitter as swirling winds rip the remaining leaves from the trees. Winter is approaching rapidly and it gives all indications that it will be a bitter, dangerous, harsh time for all Americans. We wish we didn’t have to face the coming trial, but there is no avoiding it. Generational moods are transitioning, and a Crisis will envelop the country for the next twenty years. Courage and fortitude on a level not seen since World War II will be required. The celebrity circuses like the Michael Jackson funeral, Britney Spears comeback tour, and Brangelina’s latest adoption will seem so trite during the coming Crisis. Wearing a blue rubber wristband and putting a yellow ribbon on your Mercedes SUV will not cut it. Previous 4th Turnings in U.S. history have involved total war. Deaths during the American Revolutionary War were approximately 50,000. Total deaths during the Civil War were 600,000. Total deaths during World War II were 73,000,000. How many people will die during the coming Crisis? No one knows the answer in advance. An integrated global economy, combined with nuclear weapons, advanced military killing machines, terrorists, and peak oil appears to be a recipe for death on a colossal scale.
Anyone who doesn’t sense a turning in the mood of the country is just not paying attention. There is a foreboding feeling that something is dreadfully wrong with our country. For those addicted to cable television, we are about to leave the sheltered, superficial, coddled world of Housewives of Orange County and enter the frigid, dangerous world of The Deadliest Catch with 40 foot waves and the threat of a watery death at any moment. A dramatic event will soon shock the nation into action. The catalyst for the Crisis will likely be a sequence of events that will shift the mood of the country. The 1st event will be seen as the financial system meltdown in September 2008. The 2nd event will be viewed as the government’s reaction to the crisis. The remarkable sweeping steps taken by Ben Bernanke, Hank Paulson, Tim Geithner, and Barack Obama have further weakened the U.S. financial system and left it vulnerable to the next sudden shock.
The approaching Crisis will be sparked by known existing threats that have been ignored and discounted by our Baby Boom leaders. These known threats include titanic current deficits, colossal unfunded future liabilities, and unavoidable Peak Oil. As the economy continues to hemorrhage jobs, Congress will do what they do best and spend billions more on stimulus pork. As the National Debt approaches $15 trillion in 2012, a spectacular collapse of the U.S. dollar becomes more likely. By 2012 the world will realize that Peak Oil is a fact. As demand outstrips supply, prices will rise dramatically. This is when a catalytic event is likely to plunge us into a harsh Winter of darkness and death. As the U.S. economy begins to collapse under the weight of debt and oil shortages, a terrorist attack using nuclear or biological weapons on U.S. soil would plunge the country into chaos. Other possible triggers could be a natural disaster such as an earthquake that destroys significant portions of California or a hurricane that destroys oil rigs and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico. Significant oil shortages will bring commerce to a halt. Food shortages would occur within a week of oil supply disruptions, as most of the food in our stores must be delivered by truck. As real unemployment reaches 25%, interest rates soar, and the dollar becomes worthless, civil unrest will breakout and the Department of Homeland Security will be called upon to fight and imprison its fellow citizens.
Past Crisis periods were marked by Prophets leading and Heroes sacrificing (Gandalf & Frodo) as the soldiers of the Crisis. In 2012 the country is likely to turn to a Baby Boom President with strong leadership skills such as Newt Gingrich or someone who will appear out of nowhere (Abraham Lincoln was an unknown two year Illinois Congressman). As the U.S. domestic crisis deepens, Russia and China will attempt to take advantage of U.S. weakness by expanding their influence and control in Eastern Europe and Asia. Countries with domestic problems always turn outwards for a real or created threat to rally the nation. With the oil crisis getting worse, the U.S. will go to war in order to secure the precious supplies needed to run our economy. With China also seeking oil supplies a military conflict with China and Russia is quite possible. If the conflict turns into a cyber war of destroying satellites and disrupting computer communications, world leaders could be fighting blindly. If one of these leaders panics and decides to launch some of their nuclear arsenal, the world could be changed beyond all recognition. This scenario seems impossible today. On October 24, 1929 when the Stock Market crashed, did anyone foresee a twelve year Depression with 25% unemployment, a World War that killed 73 million people, and the creation and use of an atomic bomb in the following sixteen years? The impossible becomes possible during a Crisis.
A Crisis can end positively or negatively. Our previous Crisis periods have resulted in new golden ages. If the leaders we choose are strong, wise, and judicious and the Millennial generation can rise to the occasion as their GI generation grandparents did during our last Crisis, we can rejuvenate our national destiny. Winter always turns into Spring. But, Strauss & Howe offer a chilling warning:
“History offers no guarantees. Obviously, things could go horribly wrong – the possibilities ranging from a nuclear exchange to incurable plagues, from terrorist anarchy to high-tech dictatorship. We should not assume that Providence will always exempt our nation from the irreversible tragedies that have overtaken so many others: not just temporary hardship, but debasement and total ruin. Losing in the next Fourth Turning could mean something incomparably worse. It could mean a lasting defeat from which our national innocence – perhaps even our nation – might never recover.”
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This article has 171 comments:
All great polities rise to greatness when they combine in their people a shared vison of something far greater than themselves, articulate and agree on some tremendous goal, act with dscipline, scarifice frivolous or immediate gratification for the prospect(but no assurance) of vast rewards in the future and seek to reshape the world in their image.
No nation in recorded history has combined as many good things and transforming ideals as the US did until about 50 or 60 yrears ago. The US became the first global power and a truly universal nation not only because it was graced(that it was, of course) by a shared commitment to faith, family and freedom and vast internal resources and markets but because by both its creativity , its moral leadership and its work, it deserved to be.
Then, for reasons many have debated vigorously elsewhere it began to take its greatness as a given; its presitige and prosperity turned into entitlements ; its hard earned exceptionalism was viewed by a smug and increasingly complacent population as an inalienable right. The ME generation came into being and assimilated into itself almost all major national institutions(except the military, which has always been and still is full of WE and US people).
The USA went from being a nation of producers and savers to a nation of consumers and borrowers. Instant gratification and the gross indulgence of the basest sensual appetities became the norms of, first, a highly vocal and aggressive minority culture and then a submissive and co-opted majority culture. Entitlements overtook responsibilities and taking overwhelmed giving as the presiding social and cultural ethic. In my view, that was the Great Turning in America: a divide that started to separate America from its legacy, its historical virtues and traits and its founding generations.
Despite attempts to resist and restore and despite the foreboding and courage of tens of millions of Americans the DIVIDE has , in spurts and spasms, only grown over the decades since the 1960s.
Now it is chasm and the USA is now horribly separated from the America of our hymns, national anthems and songs of thanksgiving.
Our decline has been 50 to 60 years in the making but until 2009 has been disguised by the momentum of greatness built by generations now long gone. Finally, it seems the momentum of historical America has been completly arreseted and very quickly the retrogression has become tangible. No nation can stagnate for long, esp not one with 300million people and planetary reach. It must progress or regress.
We have forgotten and dishonored our legacy, mocked our history, and sneered at the past. We are now debasing the present and consuming our substance at a profligate pace. As a Nation we are living off the inventory of past achievements and confusing it with current achievements.
No one can prophesy what the next 10 years will bring. Revivals do occur. National cleansings, awakenings and regenerations do occur. Maybe the vestiges of Grace are still with us and we will once again become a great nation. If not, then America has done its job ; it has done more good, more quickly, for more people in more parts of the world than any polity we know of. Nothing human lasts forever and no nation does. Our rise was unpredented and maybe our fall will be too. We rose, in the main, by an extended act of shared national vision and will; If we fall, its because ,in the main, we have willed our own fall. No external enemy will have brought us down. The enemy within will have succeeded.
For those, who may have seen some of my comments previously, you will know that this article conveys well, my thoughts.
To that end, following is an article written by me, some time back.
==================
What is the Motor of the World and why is it stopping?
Let me say from the start, that the world and its financial system are now more interlocked than any other time in history and that the butterfly effect is very real. We have also stepped into the unknown, into a new paradigm and there is no going back!
What is the Motor of the World?
There will be many opinions, some will say China is now the motor of the world, some will say modern computers, some the US, some Oil, some this and some that. The truth is there are probably over 6 Billion opinions and most opinions would be at least partially true, given a particular time frame.
It would be correct to say that China has been a very significant force in global economics, certainly in the last 10-15 years. Certainly, the impact of computers and related electronics, over the last 50 years, has truly moved the world.
And, over 150 years, the US and Oil have been inseparable, as the driving forces of the global economy. Such a large part of the global economy today can be traced back to the US and it’s partnership with Oil.
But, in back of everything, the steady and un-relenting growth in population has always been the engine of economic growth, at national and global levels.
However, that motor is stopping!
How did we get here?
Population Growth & Aging -
It took all of history, up to the year 1800 AD, for humanity to reach our first Billion people. Baby Boomers had their origins in the population explosion that started as the Great Depression was ending; they were a large part of our 3rd and 4th Billion.
The population explosion really took off in 1945, it Peaked in 1956, then levelled out to 1964, before slowing significantly since then. Now, at over 6 Billion people, we are starting to exhaust the earth’s capacity to support human species.
A continuation of past growth would have seen the global population increase to 10 Billion by 2050 and 20 Billion by 2150. Clearly, that is not likely to happen, as population growth is slowing and the global population may start to fall, in the not too distant future.
Why, because we are now bumping into immovable objects, such as Peak Oil, Climate Change and Peak Food Production, all driven by the Global population.
With a few relatively minor interruptions, the period 1945 to 2005 was the greatest Global economic BOOM in history. In particular, the period 1995-2005 was a Growth Tsunami, driven by the Peak earning and spending capacity of US & other Global Baby Boomer consumers.
In addition, around the same time, technology drove massive gains in productivity, leverage multiplied and interest rates in the US remained artificially low, for far too long, following the events of 9/11.
This was a perfect storm, for making money.
Peak Oil -
To make life more interesting, Oil has also gone from $10 to nearly $150 a barrel, in just a few short years. Whilst there may have been some external influences, the main reason for this huge increase was Supply & Demand.
And, while there are arguments for Abiotic Oil, Coal & Gas, there are drawbacks for these "replacements" and in some cases they may create more environmental problems.
Oil prices have since retraced to lower levels, in expectation of a substantial fall in oil usage, arising from a slowing economy.
Transport, Plastics, Medicines, Chemicals, the list is almost endless, that are dependent on oil, no wonder the US has had such a long lasting love affair.
When historians look back, they really will say, "did they just burn all that oil".
Climate Change -
Climate is our greatest asset, but changes are also starting to impact us now, as can be seen in the lack of water in some parts of the planet, increased storm severity in others and the melting of Glaciers and Polar Caps.
We have already passed major climate tipping points, the planets climate is set to get very difficult for humanity, including a possible new ice age. Sure, we can take the chance that the scientists have it wrong, but then if their right, this could be an Extinction Event.
Do we have the right to play Roulette, with the survival of future generations.
Peak Food Production –
With the total global population busting at the seams, we must make sure everything possible is done to ensure food production is provided for the increasing population, right?
Wrong, instead, we are diverting large parts of agricultural production away from food production and into the production of diesel, as a replacement for Oil.
Even if we wanted to boost Food production, Climate Change is and will continue to, raise serious questions on our present and future capacity, to deliver enough food, to keep the surging global population fed.
Where are we now and where to next?
Whilst the sub-prime debacle in the US has its own distinct origins, including NINJA mortgages (Greed), it has highlighted falling Real Estate values and New Housing starts, which has separate Demographic origins.
In economic terms, the primary driver of the real global economy is consumer demand. The largest demand driver is the 45-55 age group, primarily in the USA, due their big earning and spending capacity.
Demographic levels are already being re-shaped, as nearly two Billion Baby Boomers have commenced a 20 year transition from being big spenders, to big Retirement savers, to thrifty Retirees, before leaving us forever, in increasing numbers.
This massive aging of the global population is changing the dynamics of the world economy, with the bulk of Boomer wealth likely to pass on before they do and as the generations following behind the Baby Boomers, are relatively less in numbers.
In particular, Real Estate and New Housing markets, particularly in the US & Europe have already fallen and continue to do so, arising from a lowering in demand, led by thrifty and retiring Boomers.
As if housing issues were not enough, the aging process will also introduce some $50 Trillion in unfunded Health and Social Security costs.
So, we now see:
1) Supply (Oil) & Demand constraints.
2) A massive de-leveraging of financial markets, including some $500 Trillion in Derivatives.
3) Government Budget deficits continue to expand, due to the current Credit/Housing Crisis.
4) Massive increases Health and Social Security Costs, again expanding deficits.
5) Problems arising from Climate Change and Food production.
You can guess what awaits with Taxes, in the near future, to pay for past indulgences.
And, with Debt levels already at historical highs and past fixes, either not able to be used or possibly set to cause more harm, than help.
Now, we are just past the Peak of a once in history Population Growth Mega Cycle.
Now, expectations build of a slowing economic future, as reflected in stock markets and oil prices, next is reality.
Now, the perfect storm is reappearing, this time it is a Cat 5 in financial demolition!
What Futures await?
The very basis of modern life will be shaken, the magnitude of the quake, will be 9.9.
Whether we arrived at this situation, by accident or design, we are never likely to know, although events suggest a mixture of both, seems probable. So, the design has now been set in motion and we are now into the first quarter, of the highest stakes game, ever played!
Unlike the Great Depression, we are now truly between a rock and a really hard place.
The truth is, there is no magical, Hollywood, easy fix.
The truth is, there is no pot of gold at the end of the Kansas rainbow.
The truth is, things are going to be tough, for quite some time.
Had corrective decisions been made earlier, then it may have been possible to reduce some of the worst side effects, regrettably, that did not happen.
Regrettably, if we opt for a better now, then future generations will pay for our mistakes and indulgence. That reasoning is not acceptable and can not succeed!
As we look to the future, we need to look thru different eyes, thru different thought processes.
The days of Smoke & Mirrors, of Shock & Awe, of the Desire to Acquire & Retain Power, of Self interest, at the expense of societal interest, must end.
Can we make those changes, the answer is YES!
Will the required changes be made? Now there, is a $64 Trillion question!
The answers will come on these boards and others, in other forums, in politics, in business and the answers will need to come quickly.
There are discussions that must take place and Mindsets that must change; the time has come to look beyond borders and elections.
Good luck & watch the Debt!
Winston Churchill noted that this was a possible outcome during the last Fourth Turning (World War II). The stakes are just as high in the current Fourth Turning.
On Jul 13 08:12 AM Jimmy K wrote:
> Jim you lost me when you mentioned "Gandalf & Frodo"
I always enjoy your articles, they really get the "mouse on the wheel".
I always struggle with the facts that the Powers that are dont already know this. It is impossible for them to line up all the strategies in a single line effort without taken into effect that they could be wrong. Without tooting the conspiracy horn, why are not all these options being looked at by the greatest minds on earth and contingency plans for a lot of different outcomes discussed.
The revelent fact is that they already know the perceived outcome.
I watch what the elite invest in and the projects the foundations that they are involved in invest in.
Why in the world would Bill Gates and David Rochefeller invest in a subterrainean lab in the artic to house 1000's of plants?
Why does Dick Cheny invest against the dollar and outside the US?
I learned a long time ago to watch what they are doing not what they are saying, its the language of truth.
While I really admire your writing style - almost biblical and prophetic-where I disconnect from your thinking is on the emphasis you place on the role of political leadership in the years ahead.
IMHO we are witnessing the end of the cult of political personality and the characterizations you provide are more appropriate to the cultural personality rather than any one individual.
The greying of the baby boomers is definitely causing a structural shift in sentiment but this is something faced by hundreds of millions of people across the globe - it is a demographic factor rather than having anything to do with political ideology.
My sense is that individuals feel more "on their own" than previously and if anything will become more and more disenchanted with elites and "leaders".
Ideas, demographics and economic factors (such as peak oil) will play a larger role in determining the shape of events to come than any President or Treasury Secretary.
A thought: I see that this article and the Fourth Turning are based completely on cyclicality and Christianity seems a bit dismissed to the extent it's message is linear. But, there has been technological progress for a long time, since the Renaissance mostly. And, symphonies and concertos were an invention since then that relied on a linear progression of events far more than the usual over-and-over with variations that characterizes songs and tunes. This was taught to me as a distinguishing feature only possible in Western civilization. Cyclicality, like linearity, can be overused.
We've started out this phase amazingly badly, with the worst lot of overprivileged leaders I can imagine and headed mostly in the wrong directions as fast as possible. This article does give me hope as it presents possiblities of change that, however painfully attained, will at least leave the present voter apathy and boneheaded leaders and policies far behind.
As unemployment rises and people continue to lose their homes, we'll see clustering on a large level.
I think there will also be a mass migration to southern states where energy needs are reduced by warmer winters and foraging off the land is easier due to the longer growing season.
Politically this will be bad for the red states in Dixie that have relatively strong balance sheets. As the dependant classes of the north move south like locusts to feed off of the new host.
I recall that up and until the late 60's- early 70's, the micro-electronic industries were mostly unheard of and had not even begun to touch most people's lives, but over the past few decades they transformed our existence and opportunities in ways which were unimaginable at their outset. The stimulus to the micro-electronics industry was our focus on getting man into space and onto the moon. The spin-offs from those activities have been unbelievable and we now have more 1000's times more computing power in our Smartphones than was available to fly the spacecraft to the moon and back.
The new focus is to reduce our dependence upon fossil fuels and so enters the age of conserving energy and significantly reducing green-house gases. I am sure that we shall once again see the emergence of entirely new industries that will advance our lives and environment, so I take a very positive view of the future and man's abilities to evolve new and beneficial ways of doing things.
But just in case, I will stack-away some cans of food as somebody, somewhere, just might get trigger-happy.
On Jul 13 08:27 AM User 353732 wrote:
>
> All great polities rise to greatness when they combine in their people
> a shared vison of something far greater than themselves, articulate
> and agree on some tremendous goal, act with dscipline, scarifice
> frivolous or immediate gratification for the prospect(but no assurance)
> of vast rewards in the future and seek to reshape the world in their
> image.
> No nation in recorded history has combined as many good things and
> transforming ideals as the US did until about 50 or 60 yrears ago.
> The US became the first global power and a truly universal nation
> not only because it was graced(that it was, of course) by a shared
> commitment to faith, family and freedom and vast internal resources
> and markets but because by both its creativity , its moral leadership
> and its work, it deserved to be.
> Then, for reasons many have debated vigorously elsewhere it began
> to take its greatness as a given; its presitige and prosperity turned
> into entitlements ; its hard earned exceptionalism was viewed by
> a smug and increasingly complacent population as an inalienable right.
> The ME generation came into being and assimilated into itself almost
> all major national institutions(except the military, which has always
> been and still is full of WE and US people).
> The USA went from being a nation of producers and savers to a nation
> of consumers and borrowers. Instant gratification and the gross indulgence
> of the basest sensual appetities became the norms of, first, a highly
> vocal and aggressive minority culture and then a submissive and co-opted
> majority culture. Entitlements overtook responsibilities and taking
> overwhelmed giving as the presiding social and cultural ethic. In
> my view, that was the Great Turning in America: a divide that started
> to separate America from its legacy, its historical virtues and traits
> and its founding generations.
> Despite attempts to resist and restore and despite the foreboding
> and courage of tens of millions of Americans the DIVIDE has , in
> spurts and spasms, only grown over the decades since the 1960s.
>
> Now it is chasm and the USA is now horribly separated from the America
> of our hymns, national anthems and songs of thanksgiving.
> Our decline has been 50 to 60 years in the making but until 2009
> has been disguised by the momentum of greatness built by generations
> now long gone. Finally, it seems the momentum of historical America
> has been completly arreseted and very quickly the retrogression has
> become tangible. No nation can stagnate for long, esp not one with
> 300million people and planetary reach. It must progress or regress.
>
> We have forgotten and dishonored our legacy, mocked our history,
> and sneered at the past. We are now debasing the present and consuming
> our substance at a profligate pace. As a Nation we are living off
> the inventory of past achievements and confusing it with current
> achievements.
> No one can prophesy what the next 10 years will bring. Revivals do
> occur. National cleansings, awakenings and regenerations do occur.
> Maybe the vestiges of Grace are still with us and we will once again
> become a great nation. If not, then America has done its job ; it
> has done more good, more quickly, for more people in more parts of
> the world than any polity we know of. Nothing human lasts forever
> and no nation does. Our rise was unpredented and maybe our fall will
> be too. We rose, in the main, by an extended act of shared national
> vision and will; If we fall, its because ,in the main, we have willed
> our own fall. No external enemy will have brought us down. The enemy
> within will have succeeded.
i always look for your articles. i am a "young" babyboomer. i blame much on us for tolerating what we should have changed. i blame a little on the preceding generation. however they had gone through so much i cannot blame much. how will the x deal with the generation that killed 40?million of them in the womb? not a pleasant prospect. national healthcare? euthenasia? useless eaters?
you can judge a society by how it treats the elderly. gangs in the streets. murders over a look. ridiculous numbers of children on ritilin or a comparable drug, easier than parenting? government on a quest of invasive power.
i see one course to avert disaster. that is insistance on constitutional adherence.
On Jul 13 09:13 AM small town investor wrote:
> Having read Strauss and Howe extensively looking for clues ( for
> investment purposes) to where we are going next in the "turnings",
> your post is most interesting. I do not totally agree with your idea
> about peak oil, but for now that seems to be a most plausible catalyst
> for the "crisis" along with the financial mess. As you likely know
> Howe believes the current leadership in Washington is the start of
> the "fourth turning", but in the prior two Fourth Turnings never
> has a "Nomad" lead during this period of history. Obama is obviously
> a "Nomad" generationally, so that does not fit. However every time
> we have entered the serious phase of the crisis a "Prophet" has led,
> so maybe your point about another one taking over in 2012 is on the
> point. So for the "generational theory" of Strauss and Howe to be
> correct it is almost required that we have new leadership in 2012
> or 2016, or the whole "generational turnings" theory just up in smoke,
> or we end the the crisis in badly. No other way can this play out.
This is a very deceptive statement. How much is this 25%? How much energy do we produce here in the USA? How much energy do we BUY from foreign producers.
On Jul 13 09:31 AM grey road wrote:
> I don't think it really matters for the purpose of this article whether
> Obama is re elected or not in 2012. Either way the basic premise
> of this article will play out. It isn't a bright outlook either way.
> There are so many problems or potential triggers and all of them
> will come into play. As one post stated, the best outcome is a situation
> like Great Britain after WWII , however I believe it will be much
> worse than this. And the truth is not Obama, not Bush, not even Greenspan
> are to blame for this. That is just ridiculous if you think one man
> is the cause of anything. No, it is the illuminati, the banking families
> , the trash of the world who pull strings from behind a wall who
> are responsible for this mess which they created for there own benefit,
> however I think theyve outdone themselves this time.
On Jul 13 09:38 AM paulsjj wrote:
> >We have 5% of the world’s population, but use 25% of the world’s
> energy.<
>
> This is a very deceptive statement. How much is this 25%? How much
> energy do we produce here in the USA? How much energy do we BUY from
> foreign producers.
So what's happened in those three years? Recoverable NG reserves have been discovered in unprecedented quantities. America's NG reserves are now estimated on an oil equivalent basis in the range of 300 billion barrels. That's 100 years of domestic supply at today's rate of consumption.
"Peak gas" is not a crisis. The depletion model for NG completely blew up. Hubbert, Deffeyes, and Simmons...it's not geography. It's extrapolation based on geopolitics and markets. The peak oil emporer is naked and so is Al Gore on climate change.
I'm not suggesting that your 4th Turning foreshadowed by transitioning public mood doesn't have merit. James, even you said that Al Gore's "over representation" is lying. You sir, just summarized and packaged Peak Oil as a fact. You stated an outright fallacy...."all of the easy oil AND GAS in the world has been found". So...does YOUR analysis hold together? Or are you just another prophet of doom knitting a story from others' extrapolations. I'd say that if you use other prophets' extrapolations and conclusions uncritically then you're another propagandist. Am I splitting hairs? Maybe. But these things are too important to just jump on charlatan bandwagons without thinking. Fashion yourself a thought leader? Good term because most of America doesn't think for themselves. But with it comes responsibility.
On Jul 13 09:40 AM small town investor wrote:
> My point was about the actual "generational theory" of Strauss and
> Howe. In their theory the end of "fourth turnings" and the actual
> "crisis", are always led by "prophet" type people. So with that in
> mind one of the next two or three elections "prophets" born 1943-1960,
> must be elected to lead us through this period.
Read the Hirsch Report.
Let's debate Peak Oil for another 4 years and see what happens.
On Jul 13 09:54 AM Henry Hartman wrote:
> Not to argue with your premise, methodology, or conclusions...but
> anyone using Peak Oil and specifically Matt Simmons to bolster their
> position MUST acknowledge the massive failure of Simmons and depletion
> to model natural gas production and reserves in US. Just three years
> ago Simmons uncategorically predicted inevitable, imminent, and inexorable
> decline. The US was for the first time becoming an importer of NG.
> Billions invested in LNG facilties to plug the growing gap between
> domestic production and demand....just like oil.
>
> So what's happened in those three years? Recoverable NG reserves
> have been discovered in unprecedented quantities. America's NG reserves
> are now estimated on an oil equivalent basis in the range of 300
> billion barrels. That's 100 years of domestic supply at today's rate
> of consumption.
>
> "Peak gas" is not a crisis. The depletion model for NG completely
> blew up. Hubbert, Deffeyes, and Simmons...it's not geography. It's
> extrapolation based on geopolitics and markets. The peak oil emporer
> is naked and so is Al Gore on climate change.
>
> I'm not suggesting that your 4th Turning foreshadowed by transitioning
> public mood doesn't have merit. James, even you said that Al Gore's
> "over representation" is lying. You sir, just summarized and packaged
> Peak Oil as a fact. You stated an outright fallacy...."all of the
> easy oil AND GAS in the world has been found". So...does YOUR analysis
> hold together? Or are you just another prophet of doom knitting a
> story from others' extrapolations. I'd say that if you use other
> prophets' extrapolations and conclusions uncritically then you're
> another propagandist. Am I splitting hairs? Maybe. But these things
> are too important to just jump on charlatan bandwagons without thinking.
> Fashion yourself a thought leader? Good term because most of America
> doesn't think for themselves. But with it comes responsibility.
Peak oil does not mean we are running out. It means we are not discovering more than we are depleting. The deniers and pollyanna's like you are the problem.
On Jul 13 09:54 AM Henry Hartman wrote:
> Not to argue with your premise, methodology, or conclusions...but
> anyone using Peak Oil and specifically Matt Simmons to bolster their
> position MUST acknowledge the massive failure of Simmons and depletion
> to model natural gas production and reserves in US. Just three years
> ago Simmons uncategorically predicted inevitable, imminent, and inexorable
> decline. The US was for the first time becoming an importer of NG.
> Billions invested in LNG facilties to plug the growing gap between
> domestic production and demand....just like oil.
>
> So what's happened in those three years? Recoverable NG reserves
> have been discovered in unprecedented quantities. America's NG reserves
> are now estimated on an oil equivalent basis in the range of 300
> billion barrels. That's 100 years of domestic supply at today's rate
> of consumption.
>
> "Peak gas" is not a crisis. The depletion model for NG completely
> blew up. Hubbert, Deffeyes, and Simmons...it's not geography. It's
> extrapolation based on geopolitics and markets. The peak oil emporer
> is naked and so is Al Gore on climate change.
>
> I'm not suggesting that your 4th Turning foreshadowed by transitioning
> public mood doesn't have merit. James, even you said that Al Gore's
> "over representation" is lying. You sir, just summarized and packaged
> Peak Oil as a fact. You stated an outright fallacy...."all of the
> easy oil AND GAS in the world has been found". So...does YOUR analysis
> hold together? Or are you just another prophet of doom knitting a
> story from others' extrapolations. I'd say that if you use other
> prophets' extrapolations and conclusions uncritically then you're
> another propagandist. Am I splitting hairs? Maybe. But these things
> are too important to just jump on charlatan bandwagons without thinking.
> Fashion yourself a thought leader? Good term because most of America
> doesn't think for themselves. But with it comes responsibility.
The problem is that this topic is so stimulating I may have to actually buy The Fourth Turning and read a whole novel.
My crisis is here!!
On Jul 13 10:16 AM Danny Furman wrote:
> Thank you Mr. Quinn, as usual your writing satisfies my needs for
> knowledge and entertainment like no other.
> The problem is that this topic is so stimulating I may have to actually
> buy The Fourth Turning and read a whole novel.
> My crisis is here!!
and indeed his speech came into fruition in 69 with the Moon walk.
Agree we the Author that America has a dearth of politicians with any Inherent character or greatness able to Galvinise our still Great Nation
Some economists and analysts have warned of the impending consequences of the growing debt and it has mostly been ignored. And why not? The debt has seemingly taken care of itself. Obviously things changed a year or so ago when all hell broke loose.
However, the idea that the debt problem can not be solved by more debt still hasn't grasped the minds of many Americans and politicians. Piling on debt appears to have worked in the past so why not in the future?
The nanny government has taken every one of the major individual and collective issues under it's wings with no apparent harmful side effects. There is no area of life that is not covered by big government: care for the aged, unwed mothers, discrimination issues, workplace safety and on and on and on.
Have a problem? Call 1-800-BIG-GOVT and they will implement a new program for you. And it will cost you and your neighbors nothing.
This time it's different. The only people who haven't caught on are the ones watching Jerry Springer and those playing computer games incessantly. And intellectuals who actually believe that more socialism or even communism will work given the right place and the right time.
Even though they sense a kind of uneasy foreboding in their spirit, these people are convinced that when they turn the TV on tomorrow, the bad news will go away and the good guys will win the day.
"THEY" will think of something. "THEY" will figure it out. "THEY" know better than me.
On Jul 13 10:42 AM Pax Americana wrote:
> America's Greatness is our ability to assimilate waves of Immigrants
> and by degree turn them into productive Americans. Thereby, never
> allowing the higher layers of society to become ossified and suffer
> consequent decay. Kennedy, stated that America would go to Moon and
> come back, "not because it was "easy" but because it was hard"<br/>and
> indeed his speech came into fruition in 69 with the Moon walk.<br/>Agree
> we the Author that America has a dearth of politicians with any Inherent
> character or greatness able to Galvinise our still Great Nation
And now James, I'll give you something that Dale Jorgenson gave me. The key thing is not to come up with new ideas, there are always plenty of those around. Instead the point is to get rid of the bad ideas as quickly and expeditiously as possible.
You have a lot of bad ideas in your work - the kind of ideas that would cause you a great deal of embarassment if you found yourself in a seminar room with my good self. But essentially you are right about a few things, to include oil and gas, and Mr Hartman is definitely wrong about oil, and probably about gas. He simply doesn't understand that the most important issue isn't geology, but geopolitics - or resource geopolitics, to be exact.
What is going to happen to the Big PX, or The World, as we called it in the army. Actually it is a simple problem, and I am absolutely certain that Mr Obama can solve it. The first step is to get the limousine liberals away from the levers of power, if there are any of that breed in the vicinity. As for the rest of it, well, I'll save that for a lecture next winter.
Interestingly he has not put the blame on this right where it belongs, Repubs who have been in charge most of the last 30 yrs. They have continued to not fix, but make worse our energy, debt, war and health care problems by letting corporate welfare by buying off congress, deregulation and giving the country to big business.
Then trying to blame the problems on the progressives who are the only ones trying to fix things.
Anyone who think peak oil isn't here is just not very smart.
But there are solutions that cost less than the path we are on now like RE, national health care, means testing SS and raising it's age.
The energy problem can be quickly, easily solve by removing the direct, indirect subsidies to oil, coal by a tax so they pay their real cost Or should we keep subsidizing them? Once they are at their real price, then the market will work fast as most RE is the stable, low cost energy source.
Once we are energy independent our war, military costs will drop to 1/3 of now.
National health care can improve it while lowering costs by 50% as proven in every other major country. So why not?
With these savings we can easily pay off our debt but only if we wean corporations off welfare, become energy independent by making fossil fuels pay there own way and become a great narion again. Or do it the repub way and become a basket cases. Your choice.
Everything is so easy in theory. Little things like the fact that geologists and experienced oilmen are retiring with no one to replace them may have an impact. How about no refinery capacity. How about the energy infrastructure rusting away and needing a $10 trillion upgrade that no one is willing to make.
On Jul 13 10:51 AM 75 Year Old Citizen wrote:
> Your article makes a interesting read , But here are the facts theres
> enough Nat Gas in America cheaply and easily recoverable to last
> about 200 years , Second theres enough proven reserves of oil off
> American shorelines also easily recoverable ( except for the Greenies
> , but in Reality there only about 2% of the population the hard core
> ones that is. ) that oil could last us another 100 years or more
> So in a very short time we WIll ( Drill Baby Drill ) that takes care
> of the peak demand theory pretty well...... And in a more couple
> years after those many millions of Good Paying "Green Jobs" Don't
> appear and Cap and Trade has forced American electric bills to Triple
> , and hundreds of companies to leave the US, Along with Millions
> more jobs A New Much Less radical administartion of Adults will once
> again be in Charge. But Your article is very good recap of history
> which is good to remember.
Lets say we do not have peak of anything, we still live in a world of limited resources, so if we don't peak now we will peak some time in future.
If we want to learn from the crisis, we should learn that it might not be wise to push things to the dead end, but rather find a sustainable solution in time.
So lets mike it time now, and start usign alternative methods, rather dan using existing sources to the possible dead end, and leave nothing for your own children, because that is where we are heading if peaopel are to lasy and greedy to put in the effort to implement alternate energy, yes it might be more expensive, but then just don't use as much, or invest in high-tech, less energy consuming products, which again require more technology.
There is always a other way, don't just go ahead in the way that has been.
seekingalpha.com/artic...
It is clear that he is intelligent?? HARDLY! The man fumbles around like an idiot without his teleprompter. Moreover, if he were truly intelligent, he could not propose the things that he is, for the current problem set we are facing! One example is the promise to close GitMo, and his determination to do so, even if it means releasing many prisoners who will end up going back to lead terror groups again. Anyone who cannot grasp that NON-CITIZEN terrorists committing acts of war against U.S. *civilians* are NOT entitled to the legal protections given to citizens, is NOT intelligent by any account!!
On Jul 13 11:22 AM James Quinn wrote:
> Your easily recoverable thesis is a crock. It takes 10 years from
> discovery to extract the oil in deepwater. Natural gas needs to be
> transported by pipelines that don't exist. Cars and trucks don't
> use natural gas today. It would take 20 years if we had consensus
> today to convert transportation to nat gas.
I also struggle with the notion that an societal/economic breakdown necessarily leads to a failed-state, violent form of anarchy. Perhaps with the moral state of America today, that could happen; however, a more Libertarian view of anarchy, as was held by the Founders, is one were the citizens operated under the concept of Natural Law. The Founders felt that only a moral and virtuous people could successfully self-govern. That is to say, the less virtuous the people, the greater the need for government. The source of their view of Natural Law was that of a Creator to whom the people would ultimately be accountable for their actions in this life in an afterlife. Weather you yourself accept the concept of Natural Law or not is not especially relevant, only it is important to realize that the Founders did and those views shaped their view of government. More to the point, those views of government, while not often articulated as such, are still held to by the majority of the citizens even today. I feel that the average people in towns and cities across this land would quickly regain order at a local level if the doomsday scenario of a failed state were to occur, and life will go on as it has for thousands of years.
On Jul 13 01:03 PM Socialism cannot compete! wrote:
> Blatant lie. Last year, during the $140/barrel oil "pricing crisis",
> Transocean's CEO testified to Congress that most new deepwater sites
> could begin production within 1-2 years, with the hardest-to-reach
> at a max of 5 years. Quit perpetuating the lies about time-to-production
> for deep-water drilling!!
We can postulate all kinds of things, but one thing for sure is that the people in congress are scared to death and are taking on draconian measures to deal with this crisis.
Once discipline is lost and chaos sets in, we then get another crisis which, as always, thrusts us into a desparate measures, most likely war. It is inherent in human make up to seek the warm and cozy without regard for cost. And cost us, it has, and now we have to pay the piper. All this green stuff, 'shoots' and all are attempts to gloss over the real problems as no one has any 'real' solutions for much of anything.
The great engine of this world has shifted from innovation by the private sector to desperation in the public sector; the worst of all outcomes. We shall all pay, and very dearly, on all fronts.
We have no real unsubsidized \export market so manufacturing jobs wil continue to plummet and our international credit is close to zero for cash and services. So where to go but down.
I fear we will stiff our international creditors with inflation as well as our own elderly -- the savers -- and any wh have laid their future in currency. With state and local pension cost going to tripple in the next 5 years the local budgets are going to have to raise taxes at a monumental level. Again pulling down purchasing power.
All in all not a rosy scenario. Will prices collapse in defaltion? In you dreams. Education, medical and prices still are driving in the other direction. Food will follow within the year if not already and more an more retailers will fail. Those that do survive will have the opportunity of raising prices with their competitors gone and further stimulate the inflation and poverty.
My kids laugh at the thought of food riots. I do not.
What defensive or direction changing strategies exist with 3$ a hour overseas labor, or is that $3 a day? Brazil and China have rational policies in energy and materials. We do not unless we get rid of the political power and momentum of hold the " status quo" folks in DC.
I think we can modify the rate of decline in both our economy and
environmental degradation ( this includes man induced climate change) but it is now out of control.
Can we adapt? We have no choice but it will not ever again be business as usual as seen in the 2003-6 period nor will it be without pain and severe dislocation.
I also appreciate the article.
Can anybody teach me how to save the article in the "Read later" section of the SeekingAlpha website?? I would like to be able to share it later with friends. TIA.
Thank you for an interesting read.
"My kids laugh at the thought of food riots. I do not."
neither do I. After being raised in Eastern Europe (mostly USSR), I can attest to the fact that events can unravel in a fast and the most tragic ways than anybody could have anticipated. Do not be in denial, it can be dangerous to your well being, although ignorance is a bliss.
On Jul 13 01:43 PM Dean M wrote:
> I can't believe so many people are dumb enough to buy into this soothsayer
> mumbo jumbo. It reminds me of the academic study where a group of
> people are given their personal horoscope and 75% of them consider
> it accurate, never mind they all got the same horoscope. In this
> case you could twist the story around any way you want and some segment
> of people will still buy into the "magical" prediction.
Longer term, we will solve the energy problem: the technologies are already there, and just need enough impetus as would be provided by energy shortages, to get them going. Wind, solar, wave, geothermal and other renewable methods can be used and a DC supply grid spanning thousands of miles can get such power from source to users without much transportation loss.
In short, short term problems will happen, but they will provide the catalyst for long term solutions to be found and implemented.
Whilst this is happening, I do hope that adherence to the mighty dollar may be replaced by a search for a good life with family and friends, where monetary wealth is not the prime mover and money itself a fuel to warm that life and not a means to an end itself.
On Jul 13 01:53 PM Gtarras wrote:
> LOL. please read the commenter above you:
>
> "My kids laugh at the thought of food riots. I do not."
>
> neither do I. After being raised in Eastern Europe (mostly USSR),
> I can attest to the fact that events can unravel in a fast and the
> most tragic ways than anybody could have anticipated. Do not be in
> denial, it can be dangerous to your well being, although ignorance
> is a bliss.
-Your destiny and personality is based on your birthdate
-It has shrouded itself in an elaborate system of pseudoscience
-It cherry picks data to fit it's prediction model and ignores what doesn't fit.
-Predictions are sufficiently vague to fir a wide range of circumstances
On Jul 13 01:58 PM Dean M wrote:
> I don't say crises don't occur periodically, just that this version
> of astrology doesn't have anything to do with their timing.
I honestly do not understand the parallel you are trying to draw between the astrology and their theory. True, as all theories, it has flaws (I mentioned that i grew up under influence of the Marxist theory, just as an example). These historians offer heirs, based on facts of history of the human behavior. Have a good day.
On Jul 13 02:09 PM Dean M wrote:
> Just to carry the astrology analogy a little further:
> -Your destiny and personality is based on your birthdate
> -It has shrouded itself in an elaborate system of pseudoscience<br/&g...
> cherry picks data to fit it's prediction model and ignores what doesn't
> fit.
> -Predictions are sufficiently vague to fir a wide range of circumstances
>
theburningplatform.com...
On Jul 13 01:48 PM Gtarras wrote:
> I am a huge fan of Strauss and Howe, it is interesting that the book
> "Forth Turning" was written in 1997 and anticipated many events that
> transpired later.
>
> I also appreciate the article.
>
> Can anybody teach me how to save the article in the "Read later"
> section of the SeekingAlpha website?? I would like to be able to
> share it later with friends. TIA.
On Jul 13 02:30 PM James Quinn wrote:
> Read the book before you open your trap. Ignorance like yours is
> why we are in this situation.
On Jul 13 02:31 PM James Quinn wrote:
> Here is a link to the article at my website.
>
> theburningplatform.com...
>
On Jul 13 02:30 PM James Quinn wrote:
> Read the book before you open your trap. Ignorance like yours is
> why we are in this situation.
On Jul 13 02:31 PM Gtarras wrote:
> I suggest you read Strauss and Howe book. ... . The most impressive prediction to me was
> the collapse of the people's trust in current regime of "public institutions".a good day.
We are moving into a period of more and more socialism that may result in (USSR styled) socialist state planned economy. That is when the mess and decline that socialism causes gives rise to more socialism to fix, and leads to more decline.
Illegal aliens as new Democrat citizens will give permanent monopoly power to Democrat socialists.
VAT (tax) on products and eventually services) will be the source of more and more tax revenue to support the growing socialist state. This will increase the cost of living, decline in living standards, and suck all potential for growth out of economy. This will begin to make the USA like socialist Europe, but probably end in something worse.
I really do not see that this will swing back to anything positive. The only change would have to come in a violent revolution which starts all over with a clean slate. That also could end in dictatorship. Sorry, but majority of Americans are generally too fat, lazy, dumb, stupid, and cowardly to resist. They will support anybody and vote away their own rights for a full rice bowl.
The USSR came out of communism. They now have a corrupt form of "cowboy capitalism". The elites are the corrupt political class and corrupt capitalists. I would not want to live in the current Russian system.
On July 13, at 1:23PM, spartacuss wrote:
>We can postulate all kinds of things, but one thing for sure is that >the people in congress are scared to death and are taking on >draconian measures to deal with this crisis.
On Jul 13 02:45 PM Dean M wrote:
> I'm why we're in this situation? I don't have debt or a subprime
> loan, I am an engineer so I actually help American competitiveness
> and I have always driven fuel efficient cars. And I didn't vore for
> that idiot Bush.
On Jul 13 03:03 PM James Quinn wrote:
> Are you saying that there are no ignorant engineers? You trashed
> the Strauss & Howe theory when you know absolutely nothing about
> it. Do some research before you trash things.
On Jul 13 03:05 PM Dean M wrote:
> No, I'm saying as an engineer I had less to do with the current crisis
> than, say a mortgage broker. I only mention it since you were blaming
> me for the current situation. I'm sure that I'm very ignorant.<br/>
On Jul 13 03:06 PM WAKEUP wrote:
> The source book of this article, "The Fourth Turning," seems eerily
> reminiscent of "The Theory of the Leisure Class," by Thorstein Veblen.
> I suspect the authors of "The Fourth Turning" gave in, to a terrible
> temptation to cash in on the thoughts of Veblen, dressed-up, and
> dressed-out in modern parlance. After all, it had been almost a hundred
> years since Veblen published his book; these guys (Strauss &
> Howe) could have had a vision of $$$$$ and other perks, just for
> doing an intelligent re-write. Enterprising? Sure. Profitable? Probably.
> New? NO.
Barack Obama became the 1st Generation X-er to be elected President of the United States. His background is a classic Nomad story. He has lived the life of a wanderer, living all over the globe, a child of divorce, fatherless, raised by grandparents, and a free agent in his career. Generation X grew up as abandoned children and alienated young adults.
On Jul 13 08:49 AM pockyclips 2020 wrote:
> We've basically wasted 30 years, and we won't get another 30 to get
> off or a**. 1973 should have been our wake-up call. Our dependence
> on foreign resources and foreign capital will be the death of Western
> civilization as we know it. If we are lucky, we will exist as a
> post-WWII collapsed British Empire.
On Jul 13 03:31 PM Dean M wrote:
> FYI Obama was born in '61, that makes him a boomer (1946-1964)<br/>
>
>
> Barack Obama became the 1st Generation X-er to be elected President
> of the United States. His background is a classic Nomad story. He
> has lived the life of a wanderer, living all over the globe, a child
> of divorce, fatherless, raised by grandparents, and a free agent
> in his career. Generation X grew up as abandoned children and alienated
> young adults.
On Jul 13 04:07 PM James Quinn wrote:
> Again, if you read the book their definition of Boomers is those
> born between 1943 and 1960. It differs from Demographers definition.
>
As that figure grows with increasing government programs, it will be very difficult for the remaining minority to kick the present rascals out of office in the future.
On Jul 13 02:53 PM Chancer wrote:
> It is the governing class (also new elites) from both parties that
> got us into this mess. (And American people who put them there).
>
>
> We are moving into a period of more and more socialism that may result
> in (USSR styled) socialist state planned economy. That is when the
> mess and decline that socialism causes gives rise to more socialism
> to fix, and leads to more decline.
>
> Illegal aliens as new Democrat citizens will give permanent monopoly
> power to Democrat socialists.
>
> VAT (tax) on products and eventually services) will be the source
> of more and more tax revenue to support the growing socialist state.
> This will increase the cost of living, decline in living standards,
> and suck all potential for growth out of economy. This will begin
> to make the USA like socialist Europe, but probably end in something
> worse.
>
> I really do not see that this will swing back to anything positive.
> The only change would have to come in a violent revolution which
> starts all over with a clean slate. That also could end in dictatorship.
> Sorry, but majority of Americans are generally too fat, lazy, dumb,
> stupid, and cowardly to resist. They will support anybody and vote
> away their own rights for a full rice bowl.
>
> The USSR came out of communism. They now have a corrupt form of "cowboy
> capitalism". The elites are the corrupt political class and corrupt
> capitalists. I would not want to live in the current Russian system.
On Jul 13 01:03 PM Socialism cannot compete! wrote:
> Blatant lie. Last year, during the $140/barrel oil "pricing crisis",
> Transocean's CEO testified to Congress that most new deepwater sites
> could begin production within 1-2 years, with the hardest-to-reach
> at a max of 5 years. Quit perpetuating the lies about time-to-production
> for deep-water drilling!!
It sounds like nothing good can ever happen again. It is a good thing the 1st half of my life has been so wonderful.
On Jul 13 07:32 PM jstratt wrote:
> Based on your advise I think I will invest in a tombstone manufacturing
> company.
>
> It sounds like nothing good can ever happen again. It is a good thing
> the 1st half of my life has been so wonderful.
James
Actually, its interesting you mentioned a study involving horoscopes. Just before I saw your reply, I was thinking reading your article was like reading a treatise on astrology applied to history. And your response to this person's post is a good sign of your "prophet of doom" mentality. I never read so much psycho-babble in my life. You seem like an intelligent guy, but you are sadly disillusioned and wasting your time making up new historical epochs and squeezing them into your theoretical boxes and adorning them with odd cultural references. And as I can see from your previous series of articles, which always take two or three posts to make a simple point, you are also a gasbag. If you want to read another writer who believes history works in this sort of dialectical fashion, I can lend you some Karl Marx.
On Jul 13 02:30 PM James Quinn wrote:
> Read the book before you open your trap. Ignorance like yours is
> why we are in this situation.
To those posters here who can't stand the "soothsaying" of cyclical theories of history: I don't blame you for feeling that way. Many smart people to whom I've shown Strauss and Howe books couldn't stand the idea of an 80-year saeculum (or cycle of history). They had a strong aversion to the idea because they think it eliminates free will. But Strauss and Howe unequivocally state in "Generations" that free will has a crucial place in the way cyclical history unfolds. Great tasks await surmounting by great men and great women. So read their ideas, and those of James Quinn here, knowing that — to quote the movie, "The Terminator" — the future is not set.
ok, I agree with the above feminine critic, Jim you lost us with that narcissistic pigheaded wingnut for President/Leader in 2012. Good luck!
On Jul 13 01:01 PM Socialism cannot compete! wrote:
> "You may not agree with Obama’s plans or policies, but it is clear
> to anyone that he is an intelligent, pragmatic man that will institute
> dramatic change in the policies of the United States."
>
> It is clear that he is intelligent?? HARDLY! The man fumbles around
> like an idiot without his teleprompter. Moreover, if he were truly
> intelligent, he could not propose the things that he is, for the
> current problem set we are facing! One example is the promise to
> close GitMo, and his determination to do so, even if it means releasing
> many prisoners who will end up going back to lead terror groups again.
> Anyone who cannot grasp that NON-CITIZEN terrorists committing acts
> of war against U.S. *civilians* are NOT entitled to the legal protections
> given to citizens, is NOT intelligent by any account!!
On Jul 13 04:27 PM grey road wrote:
> Why are all of these ridiculous points being discussed? Minor points
> do not matter.. the basis of your article is true.. you know it..
> i know it... but many don't get whats going to be in the future.
>
The obvious solution to this problem is not to reward these corporate criminals. Rather, make it very clear that if they move their businesses to another country they will be taxed at 100% forever and that their products will be either banned or taxed at 300% forever.
Seems allot smarter than giving them grants and tax credits for moving their businesses offshore as is done now!
Ah, yes, the politicos have only to appeal to that 50+ per cent.
Nuf' said.
- from the preamble to the code of Hammurabi, 1760 BC. They thought their civilization would last forever, as we in the US do now.
On Jul 14 01:44 AM joeflynn wrote:
>
> the "trigger event" is most likely the destruction of one or two
> of our cities by a bomb smuggled into an American harbor in a ship
> highjacked by "Somali pirates". The nukes will come from Pakistan
> or Iran. The American freedoms we have enjoyed will be replaced with
> a less free society maybe even totalitarian and golbalization will
> be severly damaged.
"Why don't you get a job Spicoli?"
"What for?"
"You need money."
"All I need are some tasty waves, a cool buzz, and I'm fine."
"Well Stu I'll tell you, surfing's not a sport, it's a way of life, you know, it's a way of looking at that wave and saying, 'Hey bud, let's party!'"
Mr. Hand: "What are you, people? On dope?"
If you look closely at China's success over the last 15 years you will see that it happened after the Government implemented their draconian but effective population control laws. It's too bad it can only be done in a totalitarian country because the results are spectacular. Compare the Chinese people's lives today with the 1980's when hundreds of millions were starving and there was no wealth or even a middle class. Compare their lives today with the people of Africa, the Middle East, or large parts of South America.
It is quite easy to have great faith in God (your choice) and still understand that we individually decide whether to have children or not.
No matter what your political leanings are, it's obvious that with a billion or two fewer people on the planet, peak oil, global warming, climate change, large scale extinctions of species, wars and starvation in the third world would be way smaller, or even nonexistant, problems!
E.g. Keep the population in the US stable, but it won't, cause you need growth, and one day you wake up, and polulation is as dense as in Europe, and guess what the people say here, we need growth.
Our ability to improve is also going to be our dooms fate.
On Jul 14 03:23 AM ariesl wrote:
> Isn't the real problem overpopulation? I believe it is. Unfortunately,
> even though it's a problem that should be simple to solve, we probably
> won't. That's because of most of the world's peoples beliefs in religion
> and/or cultural traditions. I fear we probably are doomed to see
> starvation and disease do the job of controling the Earth's swelling
> population. The attendant suffering of that outcome is a far greater
> sin than birth control or even abortion (though I'm no fan of the
> latter personally).
>
> If you look closely at China's success over the last 15 years you
> will see that it happened after the Government implemented their
> draconian but effective population control laws. It's too bad it
> can only be done in a totalitarian country because the results are
> spectacular. Compare the Chinese people's lives today with the 1980's
> when hundreds of millions were starving and there was no wealth or
> even a middle class. Compare their lives today with the people of
> Africa, the Middle East, or large parts of South America.
>
> It is quite easy to have great faith in God (your choice) and still
> understand that we individually decide whether to have children or
> not.
>
> No matter what your political leanings are, it's obvious that with
> a billion or two fewer people on the planet, peak oil, global warming,
> climate change, large scale extinctions of species, wars and starvation
> in the third world would be way smaller, or even nonexistant, problems!
On Jul 13 11:13 PM datadave wrote:
> gandolf and frodo ... and Newt!!!
>
> ok, I agree with the above feminine critic, Jim you lost us with
> that narcissistic pigheaded wingnut for President/Leader in 2012.
> Good luck!
On Jul 13 11:40 PM User 357705 wrote:
> "It will convince many companies to move operations and jobs to China
> and India where these regulations don’t apply"
>
> The obvious solution to this problem is not to reward these corporate
> criminals. Rather, make it very clear that if they move their businesses
> to another country they will be taxed at 100% forever and that their
> products will be either banned or taxed at 300% forever.
>
> Seems allot smarter than giving them grants and tax credits for moving
> their businesses offshore as is done now!
Besides that we have stored oil for emergencies.
On Jul 13 01:03 PM Socialism cannot compete! wrote:
> Blatant lie. Last year, during the $140/barrel oil "pricing crisis",
> Transocean's CEO testified to Congress that most new deepwater sites
> could begin production within 1-2 years, with the hardest-to-reach
> at a max of 5 years. Quit perpetuating the lies about time-to-production
> for deep-water drilling!!
Most of our leaders seem to think profit is the big thing, but they need to consider quality of life, too.
Price controls are one solution but the leaders are afraid of them.
Common sense is missing in our leaders too.
The elderly need to remind the young that we paid from every paycheck into Social Security, usually about 45 years by the time we retired. We were promised we would get a monthly check for paying in.
There will be plenty of money to pay for Social Security retirement. It is the add ons they added over the years that is causing problems. People shouldn't have to work longer to draw it, the jobs are needed for the young with families.
I honestly believe this crisis is being created by Wall Street so we will have to invest in their stocks for retirement. I don't want to be dependent on them.
On Jul 14 10:06 AM RobertsJim wrote:
> If a Crisis is imminent, with its destructive qualities besetting
> us for maybe 15 to 20 years, might not technology minimize its impact
> and shorten its tenure? Sensible government spending programs, sustainable
> energy, medical advances, information assembly and transmission,
> transportation improvements come to mind. Admittedly, the future
> looks grave but, if cast as a collection of problems, solutions will
> be found. I am a concerned boomer, but an optimistic one.
On Jul 13 03:30 PM James Quinn wrote:
> Read the book and learn something that might benefit you in the next
> twenty years.
Even an Ameriken Publik Skool Ejukation would have taught you that price controls have never worked in the past, do not work now, and will never work in the future. They result in either gluts or shortages, (destroy market clearance) and necessitate rationing by measures other than price (queues, political connections, level of need as decided by a Kommissar, etc.)
I'm sorry, but you were a fool to ever believe Social Security was anything more than a Ponzi scheme. I expect to never get a cent, and never did expect to ever get a cent. I shred the ridiculous green and white letter outlining my future benefits without opening it every time it comes. It is not an entitlement; there is no fund with your name on it; it is a tax-and-transfer-payment system, and always has been. What you paid in never was yours- it never even made it to your paycheck to be removed!!!
Please wake up, folks. Use some common sense and reason.
On Jul 14 09:29 AM Tao wrote:
> The real problem is greed. I read that they want to patent medicines
> for 13 years longer so they won't have generics to deal with for
> that 13 years and can charge what they want without competition.
>
>
> Most of our leaders seem to think profit is the big thing, but they
> need to consider quality of life, too.
>
> Price controls are one solution but the leaders are afraid of them.
>
>
> Common sense is missing in our leaders too.
>
> The elderly need to remind the young that we paid from every paycheck
> into Social Security, usually about 45 years by the time we retired.
> We were promised we would get a monthly check for paying in.
>
> There will be plenty of money to pay for Social Security retirement.
> It is the add ons they added over the years that is causing problems.
> People shouldn't have to work longer to draw it, the jobs are needed
> for the young with families.
>
> I honestly believe this crisis is being created by Wall Street so
> we will have to invest in their stocks for retirement. I don't want
> to be dependent on them.
On Jul 14 10:23 AM Emerald wrote:
> Writers on this website who personally attack their readers (whether
> the responses are warranted or not) deserve to be ignored. Shame
> on you James Quinn.
On Jul 14 08:04 AM James Quinn wrote:
> If a company can't make a profit in the U.S. they will close up shop.
> That is capitalism. Deal with it.
On Jul 13 03:42 PM WAKEUP wrote:
> A word to the wise, about rushing off to the southern states: The
> South is a very different kind of place, and if you ain't from the
> South, you'll find that "locusts," and other pests are not tolerated
> very well, at all. The Resistance to any group of people arriving
> in the South for the purpose of "...feed{ing} off of the new host"
> will be, to say the VERY LEAST, quite SIGNIFICANT. Be aware, OR be
> very, very (to put it, mildly) SURPRISED.
On Jul 13 05:33 PM Turnipseed wrote:
> Nope, not a blatant lie. Here's the sequence for oil/gas production.
> Identify target - acquire target (usually by leasing) - collect and
> analysis additional geophysical data - select drill site - spud and
> complete well - build pipeline to connect to existing infrastructure.
> Of course there is all sorts of permitting that has to be approved
> along the way. Ten years is a pretty good general estimate.