Vince Martin
Long/short equity, value, gambling

Recent Run At Guess? Creates Compelling Short Opportunity

It's been a nice -- and welcome -- bull run of late for shares of Guess? (NYSE:GES), which have rallied better than 25 percent since fourth quarter earnings and weak guidance for fiscal 2014 (ending January) sent the stock tumbling toward $25 per share. The rally culminated with an 8.3 percent gain last Friday, after the release of first quarter results after the bell Thursday, which briefly pushed the stock to a 52-week high:

GES data by YCharts

The problem for Guess? is that the rally simply made no sense. As I noted in March, the FY13 results and FY14 outlook showed a company with serious, structural issues, a host of macro headwinds, most notably in Europe,

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