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Wouldn't you know it... comments from a BoJ voting member reiterated the possibility of more rate increases by the end of the year, as the FT points out. Seems reasonable. We'll see a push towards .50% by the end of the quarter, and perhaps a push towards 1.00% by year's end. I don't think that's out of the realm of possibilities. In fact, I see it as being prudent. The BoJ wouldn't want to get themselves into a situation of rapid inflation growth after so many years of deflation. That would almost be embarrassing.

But I also see that as being in the realm of possibilities. See, the United States' policy of turning the printing presses on at full speed to get the economy back up and running (and avoiding a deflationary situation like Japan's), has been exported to other nations. In some regards, the Japanese would welcome inflation with housing growth. But, that's also the very reason they got themselves into their 16 year mess. There's a need to prove that their policies were right while making sure the situation doesn't blow up in their face with runaway home prices. That's not a ball you want to get rolling too hard.

This could make for interesting trading going into the end of the year. If the BoJ gets a little more aggressive, and talk starts of “interest rate differentials narrowing”, the dollar will tank against the yen. This won't be a cautious move. This will be a move the likes of 1995 when the yen pushed 11 big figures in two days.

Get ready.... it could be fun.

Source: Dollar Could Tank vs. Yen By End of Year