Swine Flu Vaccines Will Have to Wait

The Associated Press yesterday reported that there would be no licensed swine flu vaccine until the end of the year. Apparently the yield of the active ingredient(s) from the swine flus being used is only about half of that of normal flu viruses.

As part of that article, AP cited British Health Minister Andy Burnham as saying the UK could see up to 100,000 cases per day by the end of August. Swine flu vaccine is supposed to start arriving in the UK in August (but not nearly enough to vaccinate everyone).

I find the numbers cited by Andy Burnham to be a little hard to believe. They may be to some extent a ploy to be first in line for swine flu vaccine. However, few government officials will completely fabricate numbers about matters as serious as this one.

There is likely some truth to the numbers. That famous London fog (damp and cold weather) may play a role in the predicted number of new swine flu cases. No one should completely discount this prediction. Certainly Andy Burnham is more expert than I. WHO has recorded only about 100,000 total cases worldwide to date.

If these predictions bear out, this could be the start of a massive worldwide economic slide. I have seen estimates that a large pandemic of the magnitude the UK is talking about could negatively affect the worldwide GDP by 4% or more. Even if it is much less, it still sounds significant.

We may be seeing “green shoots” now, but a major pandemic will soon see them turn yellow and die. Hold onto your hats folks. The ride seems likely to get rougher in the near future.

Comments

[David White]

If Andy Burnham's worries actually come to pass, this "real pandemic" will have a devastating effect on the airline industry. The travel and public entertainment industries will be adversely effected.

2009 Jul 14 06:42 AM

[Kirk Patrick]

Quote of the day from the WHO's own website:

"Since new technologies are involved in the production of some pandemic vaccines, which have not yet been extensively evaluated for their safety in certain population groups, it is very important to implement post-marketing surveillance of the highest possible quality."

Get ready you gover-lover guinea pigs.

2009 Jul 14 09:10 AM

[HA65MPH]

NOVAX..NVAX...IS AHEAD OF IT`S CLASS ...JUST A FACT ...NO HYPE !

2009 Jul 14 11:34 AM

[luv2makemonies]

Novavax is still in clinicial testing stage and will not have any swine flu vaccine available until late 2010 the earliest... pure speculative play on the co. their stock is down to $4 from high of almost $8

2009 Oct 10 06:55 PM