eBay QTD Listings Continue to be Led by Strong International Growth

Caris & Company analyst Tim Boyd addresses clients on eBay's continued listings growth -- in the U.S. and especially abroad. His note follows:

• Our QTD core (i.e. excluding Stores) listings count is up 31% Y/Y – this represents a material acceleration from the 22% rate that eBay posted in 2Q06.

• Our QTD Stores global listings count is up 100% Y/Y – this represents a material deceleration from the 178% rate that eBay posted in 2Q06.

• We estimate full-quarter listings of 636MM (up 39% Y/Y), which is roughly 5% higher than our published estimate of 608MM (up 33% Y/Y).

• Core and Store made up 82% and 18%, respectively, of 2Q06 listings. QTD, we see the mix at 83%/17% -- this supports our view that 2Q06 is likely to have been the trough quarter in terms of listings monetization.

• On a smoothed, rolling-13-week basis, we see core global listings growing at 45% Y/Y, core U.S. listings growing at 30%, and core International listings growing at 59%. All three of these growth rates are tracking higher than their 13-week averages – a positive indication.

• QTD, we are tracking Y/Y listings growth acceleration in the U.S., Germany, U.K., Taiwan, Australia, Korea, Hong Kong, India, Sweden, Ireland and New Zealand.

• QTD, we are tracking Y/Y listings growth deceleration in France, Canada, China, Italy, The Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Spain, Singapore and Switzerland.

• We maintain our 2*/Above Average rating on EBAY shares.

Editor's Note: For more on eBay's most recent quarter, read the company's latest conference call transcript.

Comments

[Rick Williams:]

Tim,

Where is the chart showing Ebay's "year to date" results relative to the S&amp;P 500? And, where is the explanation for EBays 45% <strong>under performance</strong... when compared to the S&amp;P.

Thank you,

Rick Williams

2006 Aug 04 01:58 AM