Earnings Preview: Harley-Davidson

| About: Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)

Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) is expected to report Q2 earnings before the market open on Thursday, July 16 with a conference call scheduled for 9:00 am ET.


Analysts are looking for a profit of 25c on revenue of $1.18B. The consensus range is 18c-30c for EPS, and revenue of $1.09B-$1.43B, according to First Call. In April, company executives said they expected to cut 300-400 additional production jobs this year and reaffirmed plans to ship between 264,000 and 273,000 motorcycles to dealers worldwide in 2009, a 10%-13% reduction from 2008. The motorcycle manufacturer has missed expectations for three consecutive quarters and analysts may be getting ready for more bad news.

Analyst Views

On June 9 UBS said it is now assuming 2009 production will be down 20% versus the prior down 10%-13% guidance. RBC Capital's Edward Aaron said sentiment on Harley is "very negative" on weaker Q2 sales which he expects will fall 25%-30%. He also expects Harley to announce production cuts, but believes restructuring efforts at its York, PA plant has the potential to restore investor confidence. Analysts will look for results for Harley-Davidson Financial Services. If HDFS shows any sign of life, after previously posting steep declines, it may suggest the lending market is easing.