Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

<< Return to page 1 - Bulls in Stampede Mode

So, just what’s going on in extended trading? Below is the current view on the NASDAQ and it’s not a pretty picture. But, the bulls still have the tape when the bell rings tomorrow.

click to enlarge


I don’t have too much to say other than markets are clearly very overbought, at least on a short-term basis. While I don’t wish to argue partisan politics here, perhaps Mr. Market senses weakness in the Obama administration's plans. Markets generally fear too much power within any administration, preferring gridlock over big new programs. This brings us to our friend HAL the super computer. I wondered how he was holding up under the barrage of publicity and he seems a little tired.

Let’s see what happens next.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: QQQQ, SMH, TBT, EFA, EEM, EWY, EWW and FXI.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.

Comments

[AndrewBaker:]

I can't buy into stocks in this market: they're all too high. I'm in and staying in gold, natural gas and agricultural softs. With the commodity markets continuing on a roll, I think maybe a long position in oil and copper, possibly other metals, may be worth taking, and I'll decide this afternoon.

I've been hurt on short financials and S&P, but expect to get some back over the next couple of weeks as surely a retracement is due!

Jul 24 06:46 AM

[Rookie_SA:]

For everyone GS , there is a WFC , BAC , C, AXP , COF .. For every Intel there is MSFT ,Dell, AMD .. For every AAPL , there is NOK ..And AMZN dissapointed as well So going up too soon too fast is a recipe for disaster .. Well there are always market pumpers and ya Unemployment is a lagging indicator .. Wonder why Amazon had dissapointing earnings if that was the case... Well what do i know ..

Jul 24 06:52 AM

[unfaire:]

The following is just a mumbling from a stream of unconsciousness.
We had oil bust created by trading frenzy with volume far exceeded the oil inventory. Now we have option trading of all stocks with volume far exceeding the underlying stocks, not just U.S. stocks but also of stocks of the world all over through ETF and other means. Could there be a huge U.S. and world market bubble followed by a tsunami crash in not so distant future? It would take more than trillions to fix, more likely mega-trillions? Remember it was only billions just a few years ago?
With all this high frequency trading and other new market manipulations which we don’t know, has the fundamental of the market changed? May be Hal 9000 has already factored in all the technical analysis we now know and depend on and found a way to circle around us. The shares and the stocks are now just like the oil, which by the way is floating on the high seas by the boatloads, a mere trading vehicle to make money?

Jul 24 07:51 AM

[doubleguns:]

Did I see GS brands on those running bulls.

Jul 24 08:54 AM

[basehitz:]

Dave, thanks for helping me stay disciplined. For once, my perception of an over-hyped rally was not followed with prematurely shorting.

I would have thought long before now that "better than expected" vs lowball estimates derived by pro forma accounting tricks would have gotten old, and weak revenue and uncertain outlook would have prevailed. But in a world where agenda-driven media fed daily by WS propagandists have prevailed. . . for now. So I work on my watch lists, long and short, and enjoy the blogosphere, which has completely replaced Tout TV. Something good came of this after all.

Jul 24 08:54 AM

[kfly:]

I agree. Stick with what has been beaten up the most and you won't go bad in the long run. I like natural gas also.


On Jul 24 06:46 AM AndrewBaker wrote:

> I can't buy into stocks in this market: they're all too high. I'm
> in and staying in gold, natural gas and agricultural softs. With
> the commodity markets continuing on a roll, I think maybe a long
> position in oil and copper, possibly other metals, may be worth taking,
> and I'll decide this afternoon.
>
> I've been hurt on short financials and S&amp;P, but expect to get
> some back over the next couple of weeks as surely a retracement is
> due!

Jul 24 09:17 AM

[Supersuperman:]

wow is dow going to hit 15,000?

www.wealthalchemist.co.../

Jul 24 09:20 AM

[Daniel Herkes:]

An interesting Canadian perspective can be viewed at:

watch.bnn.ca/the-close...

I found this on the Zero Hedge (Intelligence) website.

Jul 24 09:56 AM

[Maxe Paul:]

Yes Dave, Our cricket team should be forced to view the Aussie stock market at training, if only we could win the cricket against the Poms ATM we could realy get a chant going.

Jul 24 10:11 AM

[Grrrreat!:]

Dave's op-ed on SA is also a good read: seekingalpha.com/artic...

Jul 24 10:27 AM

[Grrrreat!:]

Dave's op-ed is also a good read: seekingalpha.com/artic...

Jul 24 10:28 AM

[BPYHO:]

THe stampede before the slaughter....

Jul 24 11:24 AM

[RiskReturnO...:]

Watch leadership country and sectors to see if the rally can continue. FXI and QQQQ are key to market rally ... short term, we are in pullback mode.

Jul 24 11:37 AM

[Beyond Trading:]

it seems a lot of people have missed the point of trading which is to make money; as to invest as Warren Buffet says "do it in good companies with unique competitive advantages; do not borrow money and re invest profits" That's what we recommended to investors seekingalpha.com/artic...

Jul 24 01:09 PM

[Dr. O:]

I had a thought last night (it happens). Is part of this rapid bull stampede a hope by the big-money types that the Republicans will retake the Congress next year? Perhaps putting the kibosh on some of the business unfriendly rhetoric/legislation coming out of Washington? I'm just sayin'.....

Jul 24 01:23 PM

[Moon Kil Woong:]

Watch US Treasuries, if the dollar solidifies and US Treasuries rates drop significantly the tide of money flows will move back out of commodities and equities towards fix rate bonds. Otherwise, the technically driven money shift will continue. So don't go looking too deeply at fundamentals for this rally.

All the garbage about that is being spewed by CNBC, and media outlets that have no clue as usual and are following the government's claim that every good thing is their doing and no economically bad thing exists at all. You would think that the head of the Treasury and Fed were Spongebob Square Pants and Stimpy. Happy happy joy joy.

Jul 26 12:23 AM