Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Monday June 10.
Is McDonald's (MCD) out-innovating Apple (AAPL)? McDonald's reported better than expected same store sales, up 2.6% when The Street was expecting 1.9%. Menu innovations are driving sales, with egg white McMuffins attracting more customers. Apple (AAPL) discussed making positive, incremental changes in its ecosystem, but there seems to be nothing exciting going on at the company. Until Apple becomes innovative once again, the stock is dead money. McDonald's, on the other hand, is a buy.
The media has a double standard about the markets, and many tend to accentuate the negative while ignoring the positive. The Dow closed down 10 points, even though Standard & Poor's upgraded the outlook for U.S. debt from negative to stable. Two years ago, when Standard & Poor's downgraded U.S. debt, the stock market lost 15% in one day and a few more percentage points in the following days. Either there was an over-reaction then or an under-reaction now to the good news; Cramer thinks the latter is more accurate.
No one seems to be paying attention to the good news out of Europe including improved hiring in Spain and a stronger French Industrial production number. Practically all of the numbers from the U.K. are better than expected. Yet many dismiss the strength in the euro [Cramer's gauge for the euro is the FXE (FXE)] as weakness in the dollar in comparison. Cramer's stock of choice to play the comeback in Europe is the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), and along with US Airways (LCC) and Radian (RDN), RBS is one of his three favorite speculative stocks for 2013. While there are still problems, including China, the media seems to miss the good news.
Cramer took some calls:
Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH): "You are courting controversy if you buy that one."
Monsanto (MON): "The upgrade was right ... the shorts are all over it." Cramer is bullish on Monsanto.
May was the best month for IPOs since 2007 with 30 deals. The average spike for these IPOs has been 17%. Many of these first day spikes are orchestrated through keeping the prices low to get on-the-sidelines investors back into the market. Cramer discussed two IPOs scheduled for this week.
Gigamon (GIMO) is going to be a "sliver" offering with a small number of shares, so those interested in the deal should contact their brokers. Gigamon is an enterprise networking company that helps its clients more effectively manage their networks. The company has impressive accelerated revenue growth of 40% for the past two years, and recently it reported 55% revenue growth. Cramer thinks the IPO could spike 25% on the first day. He wouldn't pay more than $25 for it.
Coty (COTY) is a large fragrance and cosmetics company that attempted to take over Avon Products (AVP). Its revenue growth was flat, especially in Europe, but the cohort is strong, and Cramer thinks it is undervalued. It could have 7-20% upside, and Cramer wouldn't pay more than $19 to get in on the deal. Coty is not a stock that should be flipped, but can be held for the long term.
Just as teams represent their cities, so do companies. Cramer compared the best-known companies in Miami and San Antonio.
The star player in Miami is Burger King (BKW), the second largest hamburger company in the world. The company is in turnaround mode, and has rallied 36% since last June. It has remodeled 19% of its domestic stores, with a target to spruce up 40% of its locations. BKW is improving its menu and strengthening its brand. It added twice as many stores in emerging markets than it did in the previous year. McDonald's reported good numbers, and some of MCD's strength could bode well for BKW. Burger King trades at a high multiple of 23, but has a 16.8% growth rate.
San Antonio's Most Valuable Player is Valero (VLO) the largest independent oil refining company in the U.S. Valero was rallying hard until March; since then it has pulled back 6%. Valero is a stock that requires patience, since it takes time to build out infrastructure to take oil from where it is retrieved to the refiners. Most of Valero's refineries are on the Gulf Coast, a convenient location for exporting oil. The company trades at a very low multiple of 6.9 compared to its 9% growth rate. The company makes distillers, is seeing improved gross margins and generous cash flow. It has sold off assets, and with its cash, it could increase the dividend or buy back stock.
Cramer likes both BKW and VLO, but if he had to choose, he prefers Valero, given its strong long-term story, lower valuation and healthy cash flow. "Valero is doing everything right."
Cramer took some calls:
CEO Interview: Phil Fernandez, Marketo (MKTO)
Marketo (MKTO) is a cloud-based marketing company with aggressive revenue growth. The company had its IPO in May and went public at $13. It rose 77% the first day of trading, but has pulled back recently. CEO Phil Fernandez discussed the ways in which Marketo provides solutions for its clients to integrate social media. The company has been successful with customer retention and building long-term relationships with clients. When asked when he expects the company to become profitable, Fernandez replied that the concentration is on revenue growth and profitability later.
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