Earnings Preview, Week of July 20-24, 2009

By Charles Rotblut

Earnings season will hit full stride with reports from nearly 500 companies. Approximately 1 out of every 4 earnings release will be from a firm in the financial sector.

Large-cap stocks will once again dominate the headlines, as 139 S&P 500 members are on the docket. Included are Dow components 3M (MMM), American Express (AXP), AT&T (T ), Boeing (BA), Caterpillar (CAT), Coca-Cola (KO), E.I. Du Pont (DD), Merck (MRK), Microsoft (MSFT) and Pfizer (PFE).

The highlight of the economic calendar will be Ben Bernanke's semi-annual report on monetary policy (aka Humphrey-Hawkins). The Fed Chairman will appear before a House committee on Tuesday and a Senate committee on Wednesday.

Otherwise, there will not be much news on the economic front.

• Monday: June Leading Indicators
• Wednesday: weekly crude inventories
• Thursday: weekly initial jobless claims
• Friday: Revised July University of Michigan consumer sentiment

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart will discuss his economic outlook with the Rotary Club of Nashville on Monday. No other Fed officials are scheduled to speak.

The market really has not reacted much to better-than-expected earnings. Though a big rally did occur last Wednesday, volume outside the semiconductor group was generally light. And yesterday's afternoon rally was in reaction to comments made by Nouriel Roubini that were taken out of context.

This raises the possibility that we could see more of the same for the coming week. If traders are not expressing joy over blowout earnings from Goldman Sachs (GS), then it seems unlikely that Jefferies Group (JEF) could say anything that would move the markets.

If there is going to be a move to the upside, tech will have to be the catalyst. And we do have a handful of large-cap tech companies reporting (e.g. MSFT, Texas Instruments (TXN), etc.), so there is the possibility of some good daily moves.

But, investors should continue to eye volume, which continues to signal a willingness among many to simply sit on the sidelines.

Companies That Could Issue Positive Earnings Surprises

Intersil (ISIL) raised its second-quarter revenue guidance late last month. The majority of the covering analysts responded by hiking their quarterly profit projections. These revisions led to a 5-cent increase in the consensus earnings estimate, to 9 cents per share. The semiconductor company has topped expectations during 5 out of the last 6 quarters. Intersil is scheduled to report on Wednesday, Jul 22, after the close of trading.

Qualcomm (QCOM) is a riskier pick, given that it has disappointed investors for 2 consecutive quarters. But, the company did raise its fiscal third-quarter guidance last month, citing strong demand for wireless broadband. Furthermore, one analyst upped his quarterly forecast this week. The consensus estimate now calls for profits of 45 cents per share (up 2 cents from a month ago). The most accurate estimate is more bullish at 46 cents per share. Qualcomm is scheduled to report on Wed, Jul 22, after the close of trading.

Last month, Texas Instruments (TXN) updated its second-quarter forecast. This resulted in a sharp increase in the consensus estimate to 19 cents per share, the midpoint of TXN's suggested range. Could this forecast still be too conservative? Judging by the fact that 2 brokerage analysts just raised their second-quarter forecasts and the bullish results from other chip makers, the answer could well be yes. TXN has topped expectations for 2 consecutive quarters. Texas Instruments is scheduled to report on Monday, Jul 20, after the close of trading.

Tractor Supply (TSCO) anticipates reporting second-quarter earnings of $1.48 to $1.50 per share. The recent guidance was far above the consensus estimate and caused all of the covering analysts to revise their projections. Though the consensus estimate now calls for profits of $1.49 per share, there is still room for further upside given TSCO's streak of 4 consecutive positive earnings surprises. Tractor Supply is scheduled to report on Wednesday, Jul 22, after the close of trading.

Companies That Could Issue Negative Earnings Surprises

Caterpillar (CAT ) has disappointed investors during 2 out of the last 3 quarters. Though the slowing pace of economic contraction should be a positive for CAT, 5 analysts have cut their second-quarter profit forecasts within the past 30 days. The revisions have caused the consensus earnings estimate to fall by 3 cents to 21 cents per share. The most accurate estimate is more bearish at 14 cents per share. Caterpillar is scheduled to report on Tuesday, Jul 21, before the start of trading.

Comments

[Roger Knights:]

"If there is going to be a move to the upside, tech will have to be the catalyst."

AAPL reports Tuesday evening. Cramer claims its results will blow your socks off--so maybe he's heard a good whisper number. Other analysts have been upping their estimates in the past week.

Jul 18 02:26 AM

[TradingHelp...:]

This past week's move up was healthy. The FTSE World Index made 6.3%. A week ago here on SA it was all doom and gloom. There is a more balanced a fairer analysis now.

Next week will be very interesting. Will the gains be built on and a (SPY) push for 1,000, or will investors take cash off the table grateful for last weeks gains. Technicals indicate a slight retreat on Monday-Tuesday. After that I honestly don't know.

Jul 18 04:50 AM

[enigmaman:]

Seems to me that GS and JP Morgan reported great numbers as a result of Fed intervention and their great FED borrow and lending terms, otherwise they would have been DOA, IBM, Intel did well but does this represent the American consumer health or just a narrower market segment, what about GE horrendous report wouldn't that be more representative of sentiment of the broader consumer market. While the Feds preferred lenders are doing well what is happening to those who have to fend for themselves like CIT, not good. Tech seems to be doing OK but based on what, are consumers upgrading their computers, business upgrading, governments upgrading? New build Housing numbers improved, is it because demand is rebuilding or its that just that time of year where builders start homes or the first time buyer tax credit will expire soon, car sales are up slightly, why, is it clunkers for cash ? Whats is the read between the lines truth, I want to believe things are really getting better but something just isn't adding up and Im looking for reasons to believe otherwise. And don't get me started about all the spending the Gov has and will do, the new programs and higher taxes coming. Like they say " Dont piss on me and tell me its raining" I want to believe its rain but something is telling me its not

Jul 18 08:19 AM

[Bob'29:]

Comment on a Barron's article:
"Blind Jockey Goads Horse Off the Track" Mr. Vito fails to inform us that some of the "spectacular" earnings of the week were actually abysmal. Intel beat their results of the '08 melt down quarter. Not exactly great...in fact very poor. Goldman Sacs made money after billions of government AIG bailout were siphoned in their back door. Both Paulson and Geitner are good ol' Goldman boys. A new rule prevents disclosure of where big block trades come from (the ones that have caused the late day moves this week). Can you smell Goldman Sacs? Are we happy that the government can now directly manipulate stock prices so that today's pain is put off until tomorrow. Unemployment is over 10% in fifteen states. The author is correct. We are we dupes with wool over our eyes. We are sheep ready to be skewered for the poolside barbecue. We are lemmings jumping into toxic water.

Jul 18 11:14 AM