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American Express Company (NYSE:AXP)

Morgan Stanley Financials Conference

June 12, 2013 09:45 AM ET

Executives

Edward P. Gilligan - President

Analysts

Betsy Graseck - Morgan Stanley

Betsy Graseck - Morgan Stanley

So we can – okay, great. Well thank you very much. We have Ed Gilligan, American Express with us today. Before I officially, formally introduce Ed, I do want to do an audience polling. We have two questions that we’re going to be asking.

The first question coming up right now, what do you think is the most important driver for American Express’s share price over the next 12 months? A: build business growth. B: capital return. C: expense management or D: international expansion. Which one of these A, B, C or D would you like to see in order to get AmEx to have a bigger percentage of your portfolio? Okay and the answer is build business by wide margins, no surprise there, I suppose. Biggest driver of your income statements as far as we can tell.

Second question, what do you think provides American Express with its greatest competitive advantage? A: customer service, B: the closed loop, C: rewards and card member benefits or D: the brand. So question is what is AmEx’s competitive advantage? Go ahead and enter A: for customer service, B: for closed loop, Conference: for rewards and card member benefits and D: the brand. And the answer is interesting, so the closed loop and the brand. I suppose those are the drivers of …

Edward P. Gilligan

Educated audience.

Betsy Graseck - Morgan Stanley

So thank you very much Ed, hopefully that gives you a sense as to what the audience is thinking about and would like to hear from you today.

Edward P. Gilligan

Okay.

Betsy Graseck - Morgan Stanley

We are delighted to have with us Ed Gilligan, President of American Express. Ed was promoted to President in April this year and has also been head of AmEx’s Global Consumer and Small Business division since 2009. And before taking on the role of President, Ed was Vice Chairman since July 2007. Ed has been involved in wide range of businesses at American Express, including the global B2B Group, Group President of AmEx’s International and Global Corporate Services division. So thank you very much for joining us today.

Edward P. Gilligan

Thank you, Betsy.

Betsy Graseck - Morgan Stanley

So we’re going to be having a fireside chat format and we have plenty of time for questions from the audience. So as you are interested, don’t wait for me to ping, happy to call on you as questions come up. But since the business, right was obviously the audience use key driver for you, maybe if you can give us a sense as to what you’re doing to try to drive more value not only to the card member side, but also the merchants.

Edward P. Gilligan

Okay. And I think that’s the right answer as well. I think what we’re focused on how do we continue to become – be a growth Company and achieve our long-term financial objectives that we put out there – its been out there, I think since 1997 that we say on average and over time that our revenue growth will be 8% or higher, earnings per share at 12% to 15%, return on equity 25% plus. And I think when you look at the last couple of years obviously we all are focused on how do we grow revenue the right way and get it at or above that corporate hurdle. And billings growth is the biggest drive, not the only one, but it’s the biggest driver of our revenue. And we’re a spend-centric model, meaning that we have an incredible customer franchise of consumers, affluent consumers around the world, small businesses corporate accounts, our average card member spends three to five times more than a Visa, MasterCard member and that drives premium economics for us that we continually reinvest and the output of all our investment should be higher spend on our network.

So, we grow spend by doing a number of things. One, focusing on our incredible customer franchise and give them reasons to put more of their spending on the American Express card to capture a higher share of wallet, whether its consumers, small businesses or corporate accounts around the world. We also have many countries that are franchise like that are being managed by large banks around the world to operate our business and there our focus is to capture a higher share of that banks credit card business. And you do that whether it’s a consumer or a small business by having great value propositions that encompass rewards, a variety of other benefits, service and having a strong brand. Having a brand that you can trust and one that has integrity and one that’s constantly trying to innovate, to create more value.

So we invest a lot of time and money in sharpening value propositions to earn a higher share of customers’ wallet. So that’s one tranche. Probably the biggest tranche of investments we have that drive the most growth is acquiring new customers. Again, whether its consumers, small businesses or corporate accounts around the world. We do invest a lot to acquire and that investment particularly in the last couple of years have yielded very strong returns for us.

If you look at the last three years in the U.S. and if you look at share of credit and charge card spending in the U.S. we’ve gained more share in this 3, 3.5 year period than in any other period of American Express’s history. And we’re around 26%, 27% of credit, charge card spending in the U.S. Now in fact our credit and charge card spending in the U.S. is bigger than MasterCard’s. We surpass MasterCard last year.

So, that’s been the result of a very aggressive investment strategy, focused clearly on our strategic intend which is affluent consumers, small businesses etcetera, but we’ve been executing very well. We’ve been improving our value propositions and we’ve been growing faster than the competition in the U.S. for, much of the past 3 or 4 years coming out of the recession. And had built a very strong franchise, in terms of share the largest we’ve ever had in the U.S. Outside the U.S. we’re doing similar things. We don’t have the share that we had in the U.S., but when you look at all issuers outside the U.S. and you look at spending by issuer we’re the largest issuer operating outside the U.S. There is very few banks outside the U.S. that issue across multiple countries. There is very few. So, we compete with Citi’s and HSBC’s etcetera who do, but in most countries we’re competing with the large retail banks.

But if you look at our international franchise, we’re a very large – the largest issuer and have a presence in – over 100 countries, some of which is proprietary where we’re the issuer and some of which – most of which were operated by banks, particularly in emerging markets where we have a different model.

So we look at all these different levers to invest and to grow share of wallet, to grow customers who grow bank relationships, and lastly to expand the merchant network, right to be able to get more merchants to accept the card and we target merchants where our customers live, work and where they travel too. So its building a network where you get more people on the network spending, you get more merchants accepting and that’s the driver of our growth as well. And particularly focusing on small merchants that’s where we tend to have a gap compared to these with MasterCard, we have created lots of different constructs in the U.S. and around the world to bring on smaller merchants in large numbers. And in the last two years we brought on two million more merchants around the world and that’s been a driver of our growth and that doesn’t include all the micro merchants that come onboard through aggregators like Square.

So, I think we’ve been building out both card member spending and the merchant acceptance very methodically over the last three or four years and the Company’s result reflect that. It’s a long answer Betsy, but …

Betsy Graseck - Morgan Stanley

Thanks. Well you hit the highlights.

Edward P. Gilligan

Yeah.

Betsy Graseck - Morgan Stanley

So we’ll dig in a little bit.

Edward P. Gilligan

Okay.

Betsy Graseck - Morgan Stanley

One question is on how you’re increasing your card acceptance and usage among younger, the millennial and maybe you could broaden out the answer to include other folks that you’re targeting with your increased investment spend, but the millennials keep on coming up in conversations with investors?

Edward P. Gilligan

Yeah, I think it’s a great situation for us and that our brand resonates with people under 35 and we know that to be true because a lot of under 35 people consumers in the U.S., particularly we can focus on, apply for American Express cards. A number of years ago we launched a card that was predominantly focused on under 35’s, a charge card, a Zync card. And what we found after a year being in the market where we had a dedicated value proposition in marketing focused on under 35, so yeah they like the card, but we still had more people under 35 applying for Green cards and Blue credit cards. So, we know our brand resonates.

The challenge we’ve had is credit approval, because many of those folks particularly under 30 have been credit filed. Some had negative credit files, to put those aside, but there is a large part of the under 30 population they just have very little credit and it’s very hard to approve them for a credit product. And – but we know the brand resonate, so that’s the good situation we were in. And in the last year or so you can see we focused a lot on reloadable prepaid with Bluebird and increasingly a wider range of products to try to get those folks who we couldn’t approve for a credit into the AmEx franchise on a product within AmEx brand in their pocket, to bring them into the tent with us and then over time look to expand our relationship with that.

So, I think really for the first time in our history, we have a product for folks who don’t have a credit history where we can get them on an AmEx brand and then build a longer term relationship with them.

Betsy Graseck - Morgan Stanley

And they’re building that history – the credit history that you need to see, it’s not really because it’s a prepaid, but …

Edward P. Gilligan

It’s a prepaid. So it’s not building credit history, but we’re collecting more information now. So, if someone gets a reloadable prepaid card and they connect their direct deposit to it, we now have more information on that customer, and we could see how they behave. And that information will come into play at some point in the future when we look to do a credit approval. But it certainly gives us a relationship and it gives that consumer a flavor of what it’s like to be an American Express customer. So, I do believe it will result in a stronger connection to our charge and credit card products over time as we have a longer term relationship with them.

Betsy Graseck - Morgan Stanley

Okay. Other question on acquiring accounts, that frequently comes up with investors is what’s the cost to acquire, how is that been trending over time? When we look simply at the rewards cost as a percentage of billings, it looks like its going up – that’s a very rough metric, so I would appreciate little bit insight.

Edward P. Gilligan

So the way we look at it internally is, we don’t look at cost per card, so to speak, to acquire. We look at what the first year spending of a new customer is and what it takes – what is the cost it takes to acquire that and do we get a positive return on that and we look at all different kind of deciles of card member acquisition and theoretically you want to keep investing to acquire customers so that, that last decile of customers you bring on is at or slightly above your cost of capital, right.

So we look at all the stuff and what I can say is all of the returns on our acquisition are very strong, very positive and that makes us feel very confident that we can continue to invest to bring on new customers regardless of the competitive environment in the U.S. or in many countries around the world, we’re getting a very positive return on our investment in acquisition.

So, last year I think we said at the Financial Community Meeting, American Express hosted in Feb – I believe it was in February that last year we had a 5% increase in new accounts, but spending on those accounts were up 9% versus the year before. And then we show different segments of, different types of customers we’re bringing on. But that telling you, we’re focused on the spending, not on the accounts and the spending has been very strong and that’s been the key driver of why our billings growth in the last three or four years have outpaced the industry certainly in the U.S. is very strong returns on acquisition. So we feel very good about that.

Now our efficiency of acquisition is getting better as well. If you look 5, 10 years ago, American Express was predominantly a direct marketing, a direct mail channel. That was the largest channel we had to acquire new customers, direct mail and we had world class metrics and have a great prospect database, we look at credit worthiness of the prospects, we look at projected response rates we we’d mail very effective and efficiently to acquire customers. But direct mail is still in the mix for us and for many of our competitors, but for us it’s much smaller now than it used to be.

We have replaced so much of our direct mail with online digital acquisitions. Finding customers online, making right – the right offers with the right product at the right moment, depending on where you’re on your online journey. Certainly driving people to our website to apply, but finding prospects who we know something about in their digital journey and online has proved to be – it has now become the biggest channel of acquiring customers for American Express and it helped us improve our efficiency year after year, bring – getting a positive return on what we spend to acquire new customers.

Betsy Graseck - Morgan Stanley

So coming out of the financial crisis, you’ve had competitors focus on your sweet spots right on spend-centric model? So there has been hearing from other folks at the conference, continued interest in acquiring those spend-centric customers and we hear about partnership that are expanding elsewhere, which raises the question has it become – are you taking some of that benefit that you’re getting in moving to the digital that lower cost of acquisition there and reinvesting that in the rewards, reinvesting that in extending your brand with other partners?

Edward P. Gilligan

Well, what I would say, I think a lot of the folks you talk to are predominantly – if you talk about the card business to big banks perhaps who are here, most of them are focused on the U.S. credit card issuing business and American Express is more than a U.S. credit card issuer, right. We are an issuer with a global footprint, we’re merchant acquirer, we’re a network, we have a closed loop model. I’d say there is something sort of similar to our competitors and some things that are different.

We have many different options now to grow billings, to grow revenue for American Express. Certainly the U.S. credit card market is big, we are a major player, we have scale, it’s very important to us, but there’s number of other things we’re doing to grow beyond just the U.S. credit card business. And we do look to see where we invest, where we get the best returns and I will say we have a number of good places in addition to the U.S. where we get strong returns is in number of international markets, that is growing the merchant, the merchant network that is doing deals with network issuers around the world that we invest in and there is a whole swath of digital activity that we’ve invested in order to bring what’s unique about American Express to life on digital platforms. There is new products like Bluebird that we’re investing in.

But having said that, yeah the U.S. is a competitive marketplace and I think a lot of our credit card competitors are realizing it’s very hard to grow balances to grow their lending book of the credit cards, because that market is relatively flat, it’s been down for the last couple of years. And they’re moving to try to acquire higher spending card members to get more other types of revenue to diversify their own revenue. So which means they’re coming into a space where American Express has a large presence in the U.S. And I would say competition is good. We welcome the competition and I think we’ve fared very well in the last couple of years with competing head to head with banks in the U.S. And we do so by as you’re saying, improving the value proposition. We have invested in rewards, but we also look at the cost of goods sold, look at the whole package of benefits we have. We invest in things that are very important to customers and we kind of take money out or cut investments that don’t seem to be adding value. So, we look overall at the margin of our business in the U.S. and we’re comfortable with where we’re. We’re comfortable now that, we’re holding to slightly growing share based on the first quarter numbers and we look at competitors are doing, we look at what the networks are doing in the U.S. and we’re holding our own for sure, but we also look beyond the U.S. credit card business is my point to get growth, and I think there, when you look at the next 5 to 10 years in the payment business there’s a number of markets outside the U.S. that are -- that where the market for credit fee double digit, a healthy double digit growth in the market place. And we want to make sure we have enough presence in these, you can’t even call them emerging markets but high growth markets and that should drive a lot of our growth over the next 5 to 10 years. And I think a lot of the U.S. players who are predominately just a U.S. footprint will find it hard -- will have a harder time trying to get double digit growth in a market that is slower growing.

Betsy Graseck - Morgan Stanley

And so, in terms of these high growth markets, I mean some of them had some barriers to entry now.

Edward P. Gilligan

Yeah, I mean each one is historian to itself. I mean, the largest fastest growing market is China in the credit and debit card space, but for -- it's a market that’s highly controlled right now. There’s one network in China for the local Chinese [to use] – China UnionPay. But over time this thing will evolve and we like Visa and MasterCard work with a number of banks. We have very strong partnerships with ICBC, with Bank of China, with China Merchants Banks, with China CITIC Bank and they issue cards that are dual network, China UnionPay and American Express in our case and those cards are used by traveling Chinese when they’re outside of China. But there is a lot of focus in China saying eventually China UnionPay will open and other networks may exist there, I mean it's a marathon, it's not a sprint, so you have to be patient. But we have good building blocks and strong relationships with the biggest banks in China, some of the biggest banks in the world that we’ve been working on for years.

Other than China though; there’s lots of market’s that where our value proposition resonates today and we have to have a bigger presence. Brazil, Turkey, Korea, Indonesia, places like that where you look the next 5 or 10 years the markets are growing double digit, Russia is along that list. And there’s a number of international markets that have been slow growth, but where American Express has done very well because of our execution of both our premium products as well as having banks issuer products in markets like the U.K. and like Japan, and even Australia where in the last five years we’ve been able to outgrow the market. So, I think we have a healthy international franchise, but when I look over the next 5 to 10 years that’s going to be a bigger focus of ours than it’s been in the last five years where we have won a lot of share in the U.S. and I think that has served us very well. And if you look our financials are very strong as a result, but we want to be continue – we want to continue to diversify across the different parts of our business model, international, merchant acquiring, network, digital as examples.

Betsy Graseck - Morgan Stanley

And could talk a little bit about the form factor, because you’ve got different form factors, different markets and in particular mobile in the high growth markets. It feels like it's an important part of the toolkit. How you’re thinking about that.

Edward P. Gilligan

Well, I mean I think we are watching mobile very carefully. As we have for the last three year’s, and there’s couple of different things about mobile. There is mobile payment’s where you can say where the phone becomes the form factor and it may have a chip in the phone that talks to a chip on the POS device to conduct a transaction. There is contact list in different parts of the world today, but generally speaking it's relatively small. Now in Japan the contact list part of payments have been going on for over a decade, but it's predominantly focused on cash replacement for transportation, for wending machines it really hasn’t gotten into the merchant world.

If you look at everywhere else it's still emerging and it's not quite clear yet what the standard for technology will be, NFC or something else. And that is something we’ve been watching for over three years, but we knew three years ago as we do now, it's complicated because, just because you can have technology that makes a phone the form factor it doesn’t mean the consumer will use it, will want to use it, it has to have something more because swiping a card works pretty effectively today and there’s also a big cost on infrastructure for merchants to swipe out or to change over all their infrastructure to be able to read a chip.

So this has been a slow burn, which we kind of knew three years ago. We did not get overly focused on NFC or having pilots around the world because we knew there was a big cost of doing that and it wasn’t necessarily going to be the winning technology. I think the jury is still out. There’s a lot of factors here that will determine whether NFC comes into, if we hit the tipping point and it starts to scale faster we’re watching very closely there’ll be a few telling signs in the next year whether that happens. And if that does happen, American Express’s goal is to make sure we interoperate with all the NFC capability that rolls out around the world both for card members and for merchants. That infrastructure piece we’ve been working on for a number of years.

The other part of mobile is really mobile commerce not mobile payments. Mobile commerce is just buying things off the web but from your phone or tablet. And that is a very fast growing part of commerce today where all of us have multiple devices from work stations or PC’s or laptops at home, phones, iPad’s, Galaxy, tablets whatever and conducting commerce as you’re walking down the street from your phone. That part I think is certainly very interesting.

And to me this is something AmEx has thought a lot about the last few years and continues to think a lot about in investing, because at the end of the day, the question is, will American Express be relevant if you’re not taking out your platinum card, but you’re buying something from your phone from a merchant online. And we have lots of promising signs say yes, we are staying relevant. We have been working really hard to ensure we stay relevant and to ensure we stay a growth company. And three years ago we started looking at and talking to the financial community about online spends on the AmEx network as an example.

And we look at online spent, because today 17%, 18% of our volume, people are not taking out their cards, they’re clicking the mouse. And we had over $150 billion of online spend last year, and we have more volume, more online volume on the AmEx network than PayPal has in total as an example, and we have been showing that comparison. Why is that important? It's an important factoid, but it says that AmEx customers value what we deliver whether they are swiping a card or clicking a mouse and that board’s well for mobile commerce, because the lines are blurring between online and mobile and the real trend is about convergence, right.

It's about how you’re using the internet that’s now sitting in your pocket that to shape your buying decisions and will AmEx be relevant when it comes to making that purchase. And all the things we’ve been doing in digital and with customer value propositions had been hearing for this moment is to stay relevant regardless of how you decide to pay for something whether you’re swiping a card, clicking a mouse or perhaps tapping a phone a year or two from now. Our value proposition has to resonate and we’re working hard to stay top of mind and all our information over the last three years says it's working for us, because our brand is more than the color of plastic you have. It is about everything else, the trust, integrity, the service, the rewards.

We are a Company that our customers like, admire and respect, and we measure this with an obsession and all of that boards well as form factors may or may not change over the future.

Betsy Graseck - Morgan Stanley

Okay, thanks. I just want to queue the audience and see, we have five minutes left, if there’s anybody in the audience that is interested in – okay, we have one way up front, sir if you can quickly jog to the front of the room. Thank you, first row – first row over here. Thank you.

Question-and-Answer Session

Unidentified Analyst

Just a continuing tart on the AmEx network, I mean, well how does it affect the fees that you charge then insight, with the online transaction increasing is it any different than where it be brick and mortar versus online and mobile and all of that? Does it affect your margins in anyway inside the AmEx network?

Edward P. Gilligan

Difference between an online transaction and offline? No, in fact, I was going to size, going to go look at, I’m thinking of who the largest. There are some as you might imagine very large merchants who are online only. But many merchants are both online and offline. In our relationships with merchants we acquire merchants directly. We have a direct relationship. We set the price based on the industry a merchant is in, based on their growth, their volume, a few other things that we have or the way we’ve been pricing to merchants for decades. And there is really no difference in margin between online and offline transactions. So, it's completely consistent with the way we’ve been doing business. So the merchant price reflects the growth, the volume, the industry they’re in are relevant to how much value we’re adding to that merchant. Our pricing tries to reflect that, and it doesn’t matter whoever is online or offline.

Unidentified Analyst

And emerging technologies like Square and all, how does that affect?

Edward P. Gilligan

Well, Square is interesting. Square is an aggregator. Square had signed they say millions of merchants to accept plastic. Now we looked at that right. So these are predominantly micro merchants in the U.S. they’re considering some expansion plans today. I think they’ve launched in Mexico, they’re looking at a few other countries, but they are a U.S. player right now. They’re an aggregator of small merchants. The way we look at it is they -- when you as a merchant accepts Square or use Square you get acceptance for American Express. So we know how many merchants were used last year by AmEx card members.

And we looked at that and it's 100’s of 1000’s of merchants, and we looked at those merchants, the vast majority of them never accepted American Express before, because they are micro merchants, they are flea markets, they are farmer markets, they are spa technicians, they are plumbers who are coming to your home, that’s who Square has focused on in this phase and they’ve done. I think they’ve done very well and they’ve added a lot more merchants to our network and our relationship with them reflects that. But they’ve done a very good job of converting cash into plastic acceptance predominantly with small merchants.

Betsy Graseck - Morgan Stanley

Question over here.

Unidentified Analyst

Hi. To what extent do you think surcharging is a material risk to your value proposition and business model taking a medium to long-term view?

Edward P. Gilligan

Well, and the only market which I’m sure you’re well aware, where surcharging has been in place for a number of years, it's been Australia. And Australia has been, certainly been a bumpy ride, where there’s been a lot of regulation capping the interchange for Visa and MasterCard back 2002, 2003 and then surcharging that has occurred. So, if we look at Australia we see that, regulation came in, it reduced interchange for Visa and MasterCard, it doesn’t touch American Express, but over time we had to adjust our pricing again as you’re well aware to come back more in line but we had years to adjust our business model in Australia.

We signed all four major Australian banks to be issuers of American Express card. Our share of spending in Australia is higher now than it's ever been, but there -- and surcharging has taken hold and in fact a new round of regulation now is going after surcharging or trying to manage it in Australia where before it was highly encouraged. There were a number of merchants who were surcharging well above the cost of acceptance and new regulation is coming into Australia.

So what I would say is when there is parity surcharging well I’ll say this, the first thing, surcharging is anti-consumer for sure. And I think a lot of governments around the world see it that way. In fact even in the U.S. it's a mix bag, so at least there are 10 states now that prohibits surcharging because it's viewed as being anti-consumer which it certainly feels like it is. Then in Australia when we look at it, many merchants were doing parity surcharging and a few doing differential surcharging meaning charging different for AmEx than for Visa or MasterCard and that is problematic and then we go back and have numerous discussions with merchants on the value of American Express. We certainly do a lot of marketing with merchants who don’t surcharge. We try to make our customers aware of the situation, because it's not a great customer experience to be differentially surcharged, and I think we managed fairly effectively in Australia.

Outside of Australia it's -- there’s very little surcharging that goes on. There’s a number of places like in the U.S. that are considering that is part of litigation against Visa and MasterCard allowing merchants to do that. But again, I’d say there are countervailing laws prohibiting it in a number of states, and generally I think people, regulators have seen it for what it is, which is anti-consumer, but it's a complicated issue. It's one that regardless of what happens we try to find ways to navigate. There are certain threats that come out of surcharging, but also we look for opportunities. And I think Australia has been a good example where there have been a number of threats to our business model over the years, but we found many more opportunities to grow our business differently as a result and to adjust our economic model.

Betsy Graseck - Morgan Stanley

That’s all the time we have. Thanks Ed very much for joining us.

Edward P. Gilligan

Thank you, Betsy. Okay.

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