Early Look: Missing the Reflation Trade

"I just made mistakes… And obviously you can't make mistakes and expect to not only make the cut but also try and win a championship.” –Tiger Woods

After shooting a second 2nd 74 and Tiger missing the cut at this weekend’s British Open, one of the more prescient thinkers in our subscriber base pointed out that quote to me. His point was that this is how the leaders of the US Financial system should behave. Holding themselves accountable. Looking in the mirror, calling it like it is.

Instead, what you’re going to see this morning is more of the same. Woods will be back at the practice range, and Wall Street’s finest group-thinkers will be out in full force talking about the economic “recovery” that they completely missed. Sadly, unlike Tiger – they’ll behave as if they missed nothing at all.

Who missed this REFLATION trade? YouTube them and you tell me. Rewind the tape to 5 months ago and show me which one of these economic savants weren’t scaring the hell out of the American public ranting about Great Depressions. AFTER seeing the SP500 rip higher for another +7% weekly move, are they bullish? You bet your Madoff they are - AFTER the fact. Washington and Wall Street job security depends on revisionist history.

Asia continues to teach America a lesson in high octane, unlevered, growth. Last night, Japan was closed but the rest of Asia roared higher for another big up day. The world’s new economic leader, China, closed up yet another +2.4%, taking her 2009 score to +79.5% - that’s another new YTD high. On the heels of Chinese strength, stocks on the Hang Seng tacked on another +3.7% move. Hong Kong equities are up +12.5% in the last 5 trading days and have now piled on a +35.6% YTD gain!

The New Reality remains: China’s 21st century domestic consumption growth is reminiscent of that little train that could in the early part of the 20th century, the United States of America. China is now The Client. It’s time for America’s institutional investors to be “long of” what China needs versus what the US government wants them to need. Copper and oil prices were up +10% and 8%, respectively, last week – outperforming US Bonds, big time.

China doesn’t need any more US Treasuries. Get your 200-day Moving Monkey to pull up a chart of the yield on 10-year US Treasury yields. Yes, at 3.7% this morning it is breaking out across all 3 of my durations (TAIL, TREND, and TRADE). Yes, Ben Bernanke is going to be chasing the long end of the marked-to-market curve. Yes, that change in US Federal Reserve policy rhetoric is as imminent as a monkey making money on the long side of the REFLATION trade right now.

Imminent returns? Oh yes, fellow commoners – if we Burn our Buck like this, everything priced in those bucks will continue to REFLATE. Never mind these silly details like Bankers, Debtors, and Politicians getting paid. You American commoners didn’t make the Wall Street Club’s cut! After missing the cut, the US government will be issuing you a zero rate of return on your savings account, and some Q4 inflation just in time for Christmas.

This morning the Buck is Burning, again, trading down another -0.56% at $78.87 on the US Dollar Index. After last week’s -1.1% dollar decline, the negative price momentum associated with a completely politicized monetary policy in America continues. Going back to when Nixon abandoned the gold standard (1971), the US Dollar has only sustainably violated the $80 level twice. No, don’t remind those Washington professors of economics when the last time was – that too, would be professionally embarrassing.

There is no embarrassment in admitting when you are wrong. Every mistake I make is up with a real-time quote on the Research Edge portal. Not learning from your mistakes is what is embarrassing – and unfortunately, Greenspan’s ghost still remains in this country’s leadership closet.

Tomorrow, Ben Bernanke will have one more opportunity to establish some credibility in America’s currency. I am fairly certain however that his Humphrey Hawkins testimony will not be focused on how alarmist the US government’s rhetoric had to be in order to get interest rates to an “emergency level” of ZERO. The global macro market of countries, currencies, and commodities are currently betting that Bernanke maintains that the US outlook didn’t miss the cut. Marked-to-market odds currently have the politicization of the short end of the US yield curve remaining intact. That’s why the US yield curve is very close to being as steep as it has EVER been.

My intermediate term TREND support for the SP500 remains 871. My long term TAIL of resistance remains 954. The best thing I can tell you right here and now is stay with our proactive plan in managing risk around that range.

What you are hearing from Wall Street’s consensus forecasters will continue to be completely backward looking. After a +40% move in the SP500, the House of almighty Goldman is raising their SP500 target this morning. Thanks for the Early Look guys – what would this country do without your stewardship.

Comments

[whidbey:]

"After missing the cut, the US government will be issuing you a zero rate of return on your savings account, and some Q4 inflation just in time for Christmas."

Will maybe not too; you don't know what Congress will do with its new programs to reshape the economy and the political structure. If they pass they are a new tax on the economy and it will be deflationary. For those with cash it will yield a slight real return while waiting for the economy to tank. Right now we are in the throes of deciding to be or not to be-- reorganized and subjected to an experiment that no one knows the out come of. Hold on it could be much worse than you have suggested.

Jul 20 06:06 PM

[conceptwizard:]

If Goldman set the target higher for the S&P you can bet they are shorting it.

Jul 20 09:28 PM

[Shalom Hamou:]

Read this article: "Ron Paul vs. Bernanke". It is well documented. illustrated with fun picture and video and accompanied with relevant quotes:

<i>"I will argue here that, to the contrary, there is much that the Bank of Japan, in cooperation with other government agencies, could do to help promote economic recovery in Japan.

Most of my arguments will not be new to the policy board and staff of the BOJ, which of course has discussed these questions extensively.

However, their responses, when not confused or inconsistent, have generally relied on various technical or legal objections—- objections which, I will argue, could be overcome if the will to do so existed."</i>

Prof. Benjamin Shalom Bernanke
<b>Japanese Monetary Policy: A Case of Self-Induced Paralysis?</b>
For presentation at the ASSA meetings, Boston MA,
January 9, 2000.

Read: Prepare for the Crash, The Age of Turbulence.

"Plea for a New World Economic Order."

Jul 21 08:07 AM