With the U.S. equity markets at near all-time highs, many advisors are recommending selling into the summer, taking profits. While I certainty support this methodology, it is important that we don't ignore opportunities that exist currently in the market. Rebalancing the portfolio provides a mechanism, but I would recommend opening new positions within the technology sector.
Within the technology sector many companies are undervalued and provide opportunities for the contrarian inclined investor. There are many reasons for a company to be undervalued, but the idea that the company is finished with little chance of survival, seems to permeate as one of the main reasons. This is where great opportunities exist.
If you are a follower of this sector, then you already know that BlackBerry's next earnings call is in three weeks. It is severely undervalued if you agree that the company will still be around in two years. A new product that is just being launched globally is being adopted by many individuals and organizations. Last earnings call BlackBerry was supposed to lose money, but instead made a profit. This earnings call, a bigger profit is expected with many bearish analysts raising their earnings estimates. The stock is heavily shorted around 40%, despite a company with no debt and $3 billion sitting in cash. The cash on BlackBerry's books was supposed to diminish, while it developed the new BB10 smartphone, this did not happen. BlackBerry's cash account is nearly half of its market cap of $7 billion. BlackBerry doesn't need to be an overwhelming success; it just needs to do slightly better than surviving.
I anticipate a slow climb into the mid $20 per share range into September. By January 2014, a share price in the mid $35 per share range is very realistic. A potential of $50 per share would be the high side before early 2014.
Currently trades at $13.56.
Data center storage is all about bigger, faster and cheaper; and Fusion-IO meets this need by providing high-end solutions to companies such as Facebook (FB) and Apple (AAPL). It even flaunts Steve Wozniak from Apple fame, as the Chief Scientist. For the past couple of years it has traded in a wide range between $17 and $33, hitting an all-time high two years ago of $40.34.
The stock has stumbled to a recent low of $13.13. This stock fell hard for two reasons. The first was orders from Facebook and Apple have been pushed out to later dates. Both companies have confirmed support for Fusion-IO and will continue to utilize their products, but an industry slowdown is causing expansion issues. Since Fusion-IO is a start-up and barely breaking even, this is affecting its growth rate and top line revenue numbers. Secondly, two top executives have left the company but did stipulate they will stay on as members of the board. Ironically today, Rick White the former CMO has resigned from the board of directors, reneging on a promise to serve in an advisory role for 12 months.
Fusion-IO is clearly having issues and is reaching a critical point. It does have a superior product, while competitors are closing the gap. The balance sheet still remains decent and the stock price provides for a good entry point.
With much negativity on this stock and again a large short interest, this is a good contrarian play. While I would not play this over a long period of time, the stock could likely see a floor around $10. Anything under $14 would be a good entry point, with an upside around $30 within two years.
ZAGG Inc. (ZAGG)
Love the products, don't love the company. That being said, business is business and there is still an opportunity with ZAGG. A couple of years ago I was bullish on ZAGG around $13 a share, and I am happy to have exited that position breaking even. Now ZAGG has swung to the other side and is undervalued in my opinion. It has just come out of a bad earnings call and many analysts are forecasting better earnings per share for the next few quarters. Currently it trades at $5.39 and a P/E of 16 (TTM). The forward P/E is closer to 6, with a PEG ratio of 0.33. The short interest is high around 25%.
I feel that a share price in the $7 range would be fair market value, resulting in approximately 30% return on investment.
As ZAGG has benefited from its association with Apple in the past, new Apple product releases may be a catalyst for the ZAGG stock price.
Currently not a contrarian investment, a few months ago this stock did have a negative aura about it. Now there appears to be some bullish sentiment around the stock with the release of the Haswell line of CPUs. Additionally, capital expenditure into high-end facilities enabling smaller silicon wafers, has allowed for Intel to maintain a cutting edge industry lead. Intel is also realizing non-traditional opportunities, by opening up manufacturing facilities to other companies. Cisco (CSCO) is one of these companies that have an agreement with Intel.
Currently trading at $24.46 per share with a P/E of 12.22, Intel is still undervalued. Last year, the share price reached $27 before retracting to $19 per share. I anticipate that $27-$30 per share should be reached in the next 12 months. And if it doesn't appreciate in share price, receiving a stable dividend at 3.7% will ease the pain.