Import Prices Drop Again

by: Bespoke Investment Group

With a decline of 1.9% relative to this time last year, import prices have now been flat or lower on a year over year (y/y) basis for 13 consecutive months. This represents the third longest streak of consecutive months without a y/y increase since 1983.

As shown in the chart, the longest streak of months without a y/y increase was from 1997 through 1999, when import prices were flat or down for 28 straight months. Even during the Financial Crisis, the longest period without a month of y/y import price increases was 12 months. The fact that import prices continue to decline should provide some comfort to those worried that the Fed's policies are going to cause inflation.