Housing: Ingredients for Recovery

This morning we learned that the OFHEO index rose from April to May (especially in the Pacific region). More interesting is that the OFHEO data continue to show that housing price declines stopped sometime in late 2008 or early 2009.


Housing construction spending hit new lows in May, though. And the Case-Shiller price index has still yet to confirm what the OFHEO index has been saying for a while. But the June 2009 jump in housing starts may suggest that construction spending and the Case-Shiller price index will also show evidence of a recovery in June or July.

Comments

[Jimmy K:]

You'll eat your words in September, Casey...

Jul 22 04:26 PM

[HardwoodFlo...:]

I agree JimmyK. There is no way to turn around the housing market without some solutions to these problems:

1) option arm resets
2) no "up-move" market- people wanting to move up or who want to sell in a "bad market"
3) limited finacing (e.g. no JUMBO market)
4) employment picture

I don't think you have to solve all of these issues but solving one or two would fix the market. Until then Casey will be eating his words.

Jul 22 05:19 PM

[John Preston:]

Does anyone not get the point that housing was central to the success of the economy....creating jobs....absorbing workers whose jobs were exported...and creating a positive mood in the economy....

A great many people, at all levels and in all sectors of the economy, benefited mightily during this time....no one really complained about all of this good fortune....

Why is it then that, for 18 months, or more, as job losses mounted as a result of the contraction in construction, the pull back in consumer spending, and the fall in housing values, comments cheering the further demise of housing and, with it, continued decline in the economy, have become common place...and ordinary...

I challenge SA readers to promote real solutions alongwith their comments....too many comments lack any attempt at advocating a proactive solution, and appear to be simply served up as koolaid for their angry constituency........

Jul 23 12:39 PM

[HardwoodFlo...:]

John- If you read my comment it makes it pretty clear four topics that need addressing to assist with the housing issue. Not all of them need to be completed to move the needle. It may only take one or two. Now, why don't you come up with a solution to one of those and march it up to capital hill and get it done!

I'm not cheering the downfall fo the housing market nor are others. They are frustrated by the lack of attention to it during this crisis.

If housing were to be normalized there would be millions of jobs created. There.

Jul 23 06:43 PM

[CM001:]

When the banking stress test was done, it is case-shiller that was used because this is no longer relevant. I am sure all those who 'foreclosed' and banks will take the 10% down from Apr 2007 peak. In any case this report helped fuel a good rally on housing stocks.

Jul 23 08:06 PM

[roflmfao:]

casey come on... if by recovery you mean "blip" then i'll agree because one could only come to your conclusion when viewing the problem from 10 000 feet. just drive to any of the nice new neighborhoods in your area, just like everywhere else, they are all vacant and everyone but you seems to understand this.

Jul 24 10:21 PM