The Odds of a NASDAQ 10-Day Winning Streak

This is interesting. From Falkenblog. How frequently should we see a 10-day advance in NASDAQ over a 10-year period? The following graph helps answer that question.

Click to enlarge:

The answer is … once in a 10-year period. And how many times have we seen a 10-day advance in a 10-year period? This is the first time.

What’s also interesting is how close reality is to what you would expect from pure chance.

Comments

[untrusting investor]

Interesting and makes sense. Seems like GS and da boys can defy all statistical odds and all past markets. Guess that is what happens when you have GS and 2% of the High Program Traders controlling as much as 50-70% on the entire market trading volume. It helps to have the Fed/Treasury's liquidity and the winking approval of the regulators too.

2009 Jul 23 03:45 AM

[Ryu Mei Co]

It again proves that investing in this kind of market is just not possible. Wow, 10day advance for the first time in the last 10 years. Any data on how many times in 20 years, 30years?

2009 Jul 23 04:08 AM

[TradingHelpDesk]

Place those (QQQQ) shorts. Albeit with a stop loss as anything is possible in these irrational markets.

2009 Jul 23 05:18 AM

[Susan Weerts]

Not just is 10-day Wining Streak very rarely, but also the returns during the running streak are tapping off statistically. Today's QQQ's return is 2.22% so far, the best among 10-days.

2009 Jul 23 03:54 PM