Large Cap Stocks Provide More Safety than Small Caps in the Current Environment

Large cap stocks should outperform small cap stocks in the coming months based on the changes in the interest environment. William Hester from Hussman Funds recently pointed out that current valuations also indicate that "in terms of relative performance, there may be better days ahead for large-cap companies" (if not gaining more than small caps, then maybe at least falling less).

The S&P 500 (SPY) currently has a P/E ratio of 16.9 whereas the Russell 2000´s (IWM) P/E ratio is currently at 33, almost twice that of the S&P 500. Bloomberg estimates that the earnings of the S&P 500 companies will grow in the next 12 months at 14.8 percent whereas the Russell 2000 companies' earnings should increase by 42.9 percent, almost three times that of the S&P 500.

SPY-IWM 1-yr comparison chart: