Sirius XM's iPhone App Stats Are Misleading

By Brandon Matthews

It would seem to be so simple. Pull up the most popular iPhone and iPod applications on Apple’s (AAPL) iTunes and you will see among other things, a list of the most popular free downloaded apps. Several weeks ago, Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) introduced a music application that rocketed to the top spot of the most popular free downloads in both the overall and music categories. In just two weeks we learned that the Sirius XM application had been downloaded over 1 million times. Since that time, the data would indicate that the popularity of the Sirius XM has fallen to the number 62 overall free app and the number 4 free music app. It seems simple, but it’s not.

People on various message boards are using this data to attempt to denigrate the app and Sirius XM Radio. Others are making the false assumption that the lower rankings translate into the app not making a difference to Sirius XM’s bottom line going forward. Nothing could be further from the truth.

A giant clue stems from the fact that most of the free downloaded apps happen to be free gaming applications. Did all of these games that have been available for some time suddenly regain popularity of immense proportions? Absolutely not. No my friends, the naysayers are missing the obvious. Enter the iPhone, 3GS…

The Sirius XM app made its debut at the exact time that Apple’s latest smart phone offering began hitting the market. In fact, the new iPhone 3GS is so popular, Apple admits it can’t keep up with demand. The iPhone is the ultimate yuppie product. I believe that most of the new 3GS sales will include many 3G users upgrading to the 3GS. One of the first things these existing long term iPhone users will do is download all of the free apps that they became accustomed to, such as Pandora. In other words, there will be a lot, and I mean a LOT of repeat downloads by existing users, which skews the current free app data.

This is important when considering that Sirius XM seems to be slipping in the rankings. Just because an app like Pandora is now holding the top spot does not necessarily translate into more actual users. In fact, the new 3GS is more likely to have sparked such a high demand for existing free apps that had been in use previously by the same iPhone user, that the very fact that Sirius XM iPhone app remains in the top iTunes applications as a brand new application is nothing short of miraculous. This should suggest to any reasonable, thinking person that the Sirius XM iPhone application remains highly popular… possibly more so than some are giving it credit for.

Position: Long SIRI

Comments

[noendinsight:]

Siri-Dumb stays up all night waiting for news alerts to pop up for Siri. Wow!

Jul 26 12:28 PM

[relmar2003:]

Come on...
NO, 100 percent not the situation.
1. Mel CANT excerisice his options, and only 1/4 of them, and that would happen at the earliest in 2010. See, if everyone would stop listening to Sirius-Dumb, this type of misinformation wouldnt be spreading. Why I said hes a basher. I dont care if he posts about his fake trades, and he holds fake shares, etc...
He lies. Period. His post above proofs hes a basher. Typed in bashing type, meant to create fear.
App falling is irrelevant, because is still #4 music app, behind only free ones. Only pay music app, so there is nothing to compare it to really of similar service. Good article.

Jul 26 01:06 PM

[relmar2003:]

Yes, hes probably controlled by 4 or 5 people who are paid to post under that ID. He tries to be friendly and convert his lies into sells, and no rebuys. His range trading is meant to keep you flat footed going into the CC. Watch his terrible calls coming up. He will be embarrassingly wrong. Setting you up to listen to him, probably gets the ranges from the hedge funds.

Jul 26 01:08 PM

[relmar2003:]

See, this is the real game. Every 3 months or so, or more, depending, such as Iphone announcement, etc....
This is how the shorts reestablish positions. They will unload high, and short back down. They can do this as long as they miss earnings, and loss subs. Which will probably happen(actually beat earnings, but some writedown or another will make them appear to miss). If they dont give guidance, the short attack will come back. Might hold gains higher though. Like to see .50 as the new base after this call. But Ill settle for .40.

Jul 26 01:10 PM

[relmar2003:]

I dont know if constantly reposting false quotes, and bad information about how stocks, bonds, and revenue work is illegal, but it should be. And Mel and company should be upset there is a poster out there who is constantly lying about his company.

Jul 26 01:11 PM

[R A F:]

Think about it guys (and gals!): In the end, the only real way to evaluate a business and its business model is whether or not they are operating in "fertile soil". No matter how hard you work, if the environment is not "fertile" for your concept, future success is in doubt. Conversely, if the environment is "fertile" (likely to support your endeavors) - then your future success is more probable. Sirius XM is clearly operating in - and beginning to more effectively exploit - "fertile soil". By this, I mean the potential for growth inherent in partnership with major auto companies as well as expansion into the smartphone and wireless platforms. This "soil" should facilitate SIRI's recovery and upside potential into the future.

Jul 26 01:16 PM

[jmsithy:]

.38 this week I bet it is as well buy buy buy sell at .42 / .43 make money because this sure isnt going to a dollar any time soon


On Jul 26 07:46 AM SIRI-Doom wrote:

> slipping in the rankings.
> slipping in the rankings.
> slipping in the rankings.
>
> It is NOT free
>
> It has NO Stern (Not that I listen to that nut)
>
> It has NO sports
>
> The app was a screw up... Too little and to late...
>
> Justify anything just becasue you want it to be true. Sorry, it does
> not work like that...

Jul 26 02:26 PM

[CGP:]

Note the following 4pm & later big lot trx this past week:

07/21: 3x 1.3m+ shs @0.38, 2x 533k+ shs @0.376, 4.9m+ shs & 1.3m+ shs @0.3701
07/23: 1m+ shs, 2x 2.4m+ shs, 4m shs, 5.3m+ shs all @0.42

Also noted on 06/27 25 big lot trades from 1m to well over 10m shs per, from prices starting at 0.36, with the majority later at 0.44, after the 4pm bell.

Jul 26 03:06 PM

[scots slant:]

Killerkaul, cos 1000, Scot's Slant here. Where the hell are you guys? Since you guys left the board along with Vicar of Value, I'm bored. By the way, an FNG took Vicars spot -- read up, it won't take long to figure out who it is: Lot's of negative comments....

Oh, I almost forgot, there is one more thing: Tyler is MIA as well. What happened to him?

Scot's Slant

Jul 26 03:25 PM

[*Newman*:]

scots: They all came over to somewhere where the SIRI news runs like wine and unsupported bashers are not tollerated.

They went to www.satwaves.com

Don't get me wrong: Bashers are more than welcome at Satwaves. I love to hear opposing points of view. But at satwaves, we require information that is backed by FACTS (and links), something that is SELDOM provided here by certain bashers.

Come sign up. If you have any problems, email me.

David "Newman" Phillips
www.satwaves.com
[e-mail]

Jul 26 03:55 PM

[haymakerforyou:]

I personally like making 10 to 13% on my money every week or so trading this stock. How many of you are ahead 10% this year, last year, averaged over the last 3 years? What is your point?


On Jul 26 02:26 PM jmsithy wrote:

> .38 this week I bet it is as well buy buy buy sell at .42 / .43 make
> money because this sure isnt going to a dollar any time soon

Jul 26 07:29 PM

[Mr. Stupid:]

The only reason the short positions have dropped is Siri usually has an upswing right before the financials come out. The shorts will be back in full force after the financials. The shorts know the trend. You should too.
Long Siri!

Mr. Stupid


On Jul 26 10:32 AM larry luv wrote:

> This is not' the first time short interest data has shown a decrease,only
> to see Sirius stock decrease more.
> I am not impressed by this recent short interest descrease,it is
> still WAY too high.It's not like all the shorts went home with their
> tails wagging behind them
> Sirius XM needs to prove its investor worth before this doo doo stock'
> turns the corner and becomes a golden nugget'

Jul 26 11:02 PM

[Mr. Stupid:]

Relmar, Are you skitzo? Do you actually think people are getting paid to post here? Do you hear voices too?

Really man, you need a reality check.

Mr. Stupid


On Jul 26 01:08 PM relmar2003 wrote:

> Yes, hes probably controlled by 4 or 5 people who are paid to post
> under that ID. He tries to be friendly and convert his lies into
> sells, and no rebuys. His range trading is meant to keep you flat
> footed going into the CC. Watch his terrible calls coming up. He
> will be embarrassingly wrong. Setting you up to listen to him, probably
> gets the ranges from the hedge funds.

Jul 26 11:05 PM

[Nerios:]

First, I am not a stock investor, only a subscriber to SiriusXM. To assume that upgraders of iPhone 3GS migrated from the 3G is wrong. The 3G owners are still under their original contract with AT&T and won't be able to upgrade at the discounted price of $199 until at least December 2009. If there were upgraders, it was from the original iPhone that got released 2 years ago - and new customers. Second, to assume that the original iPhone have to reload their apps is a lack of knowledge of the iTunes system... Your apps downloaded with your previous iPhone are kept on your home computers, properly backed-up and ready to install in a new device without the need to reload them from the store.

Since the author of the article didn't know that, it is fair to assume that he didn't check either the reviews of the SiriusXM app on the iTunes store. For those of you on Blackberry only, here are the facts: out of the million download about 80 000 bothered to write a review of the app. That's 8% - pretty good customer survey. The apps rates an average of 2 stars out of 5 (Pandora rates 4 out of 5, as a comparison) 70% of the comments are disatisfied customers that can't believe that they have to pay an extra $3/month to use the app... In addition to the July increase of $2/month for the new royalty fees, customers are FURIOUS!

That bad marketing strategy did two things for me: first it forced me to rethink my subscriptions to SiriusXM. I currently have 5 subs : that's about $450/year. Second, it forced me to shop for alternatives (read: cheaper). I found Pandora, and a slew of other free apps that gives me a wider musical choice than XM. XM used to have those choices, but they were taken away progressively over the last 5 years i'm with them. The last merger with XM was the coup-de-grace when at least 10 channels disapeared from the lineup. Conclusion: i won't post a review on iTunes store, but I will, like many of the 80 000, vote with my wallet regarding SIriusXM. I will let my multiyears contracts expire this fall and will not renew them. The alternatives are available now, they weren't 5 years ago. And as for my car, well I never had a receiver in my car in the first place, over the last 5 years - I did have one on my bicycle though. That one has already been replaced by Pandora running on my iPhone 3GS, for free!

Does anyone interested to buy "slightly" used SiriusXM receivers?

Jul 27 02:16 AM

[IBuriedtheU...:]

Sirius XM iPhone App... fizzle pop dud. So much potential... so mismanaged... so incredibly late... so over-priced.

In a word........ disappointing.

Jul 27 02:35 AM

[SIRI-Doom:]

so over-over
over... fizzle pop dud

On Jul 27 02:35 AM IBuriedtheUndertaker wrote:

> Sirius XM iPhone App... fizzle pop dud. So much potential... so mismanaged...
> so incredibly late... so over-priced.
>
> In a word........ disappointing.

Jul 27 05:35 AM

[Sidweaver:]

Nerlos is right. Author doesn't know how iTunes works. I, too, was very disappointed with the app, disappointed further when I had to pay another $3/mo for the extension of the service, and when told I'd have to pay an additional $2/mo due to the agreement with the artists I cancelled the whole thing.

After buying into the stock @ $1.50 I've been picking up more as it dropped and now am five cents from breaking even. Then I bail.

Jul 27 08:48 PM

[centermass:]

Sirius alienated its most loyal base the lifetime members. This company will not receive another dime from me. The very least they could do is given the app free to lifetime members.

Jul 28 09:35 AM

[Nerios:]

Let's clarify a couple of points regarding lifetime
memberships: the lifetime applies to the receiver, not the subscriber. As electronic has a finite lifetime, so does this type of membership. For Sirius, lifetime memberships are no longer bringing annual revenues in the company, therefore they couldn't care less about those members - which would explains why they don't offer the new app usage for free.

I can't wait to see if Sirius customer numbers have increased next quarter (or decreased) - that will be the ultimate metric to see if Sirius has rolled their dice correctly with this app. I forecast that the trend downward will continue - unfortunately. Not because of bad technology, but because of bad management decisions and bad marketing strategy.

If Sirius marketing had presented this iPhone app has an additional "receiver" (additional receivers are currently priced at $7 /month) it would have been perceived as a 50% reduction.... They didn't do the math for the customers, so the customers perceived it as an additional cost over their existing subscription.... It's all a matter of perception, and the marketing dept should have known better!

Jul 28 10:35 PM

[jswede:]

"One of the first things these existing long term iPhone users will do is download all of the free apps that they became accustomed to, such as Pandora. In other words, there will be a lot, and I mean a LOT of repeat downloads by existing users"

that's FALSE. once an app is downloaded, it's on your computer and synchs with your new phone just like the other data/media when you connect it to the computer.

Jul 29 03:02 PM