In the weeks since Pfizer's (NYSE:PFE) announcement that it was offering the remainder of its 400 million-plus holding in Zoetis (NYSE:ZTS) in exchange for Pfizer shares, many opinions have been offered regarding the relative merits of the tender offer. My own opinion, previously published on Seeking Alpha, cast some skepticism on what appeared to be a very favorable offer that might provide as much as a 7.52% premium for individuals offering their shares of Pfizer in exchange for Zoetis shares.
I did not offer my shares for tender, with the deadline for having done so passing on Monday, June 17, 2013. However, Pfizer has announced that its tender offer for exchange of its shares for Zoetis shares has been over-subscribed and that the offer has been automatically extended, as provided by the terms of the tender offer.
"The final exchange ratio is 0.9898 because the upper limit is in effect. Accordingly, the exchange offer has been automatically extended by its terms until 12:00 midnight, New York City time, on June 21, 2013." That simple phrase means one very important thing for those that had believed they'd have a quick pay day by selling their new shares of Zoetis.
As explained in the prospectus, plainly in sight on the cover page, although the exchange premium was 7.52% it was subject to an "upper limit" of 0.9898 shares of Zoetis for each share of Pfizer exchanged. The prospectus warned that the actual amount of in-kind value received could end up being substantially less if the "upper limit" was reached.
And it was.
At the conclusion of the initial phase of the tender offer, more than 800 million shares of Pfizer had been tendered for about 400 million shares of Zoetis. That means that on a pro-rated basis an individual will have less than half of their tendered Pfizer shares accepted for exchange. The potential impact and costs associated with small share lots were discussed in my previous article, which included the impact of transaction administrative fees that could wipe out any potential profit for those seeking to immediately sell shares in order to capitalize on any exchange premium.
While the final exchange rate is known, 0.9898 shares of Zoetis for each share of Pfizer tendered and accepted, it isn't yet known what the pro-rated figure will be. In other words, what proportion of each 100 shares of Pfizer tendered will be accepted. It will likely be less than the current ratio. The greater the additional number of shares tendered, the greater the adverse impact on small share holders.
For those still considering tendering shares, you have until midnight, Friday, June 22, 2013, to do so. The following may be helpful:
At Zoetis' current price of $30.19 after the close of trading on Thursday, June 20, 2013, each share of Pfizer that is accepted for tender will be worth $29.88, as compared to Pfizer's actual closing price of $28.64 on Thursday. That represents a 4.32% premium, which is substantially below the initial 7.52% premium. Since the tender offer was made public, Zoetis shares have subsequently fallen more on a percentage basis than Pfizer shares and the premium has contracted. The Zoetis share price may or may not be maintained at that level when trading begins, so even that reduced premium may or may not be realized for those seeking to sell their new Zoetis shares.
For those who decide to accept the extended offer and had sold June 22, 2013, call options on their shares, you must be certain that your shares were not assigned. Strictly speaking, option contracts that expire at the end of a monthly cycle do not expire until Saturday, which is after the extended deadline to tender shares. If you accept the tender offer and your Pfizer shares were subsequently discovered to have been assigned, you would still be obligated to deliver Pfizer shares in exchange for Zoetis shares and could do so by purchasing them in the after-market. That has additional risk if the price of Pfizer shares increases while the price of Zoetis shares decreases.
What to do?
Stick with Pfizer. If and when there is a time to own Zoetis shares, you can always do so based on its own merits and without a clock ticking away in the background.
Disclosure: I am long PFE. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.