Options Trader: How I'm Playing Today's Fed Decision

by: Philip Davis

There's hardly any point to even looking at the levels, as nothing will matter until about 2:15.

Asia is up nicely and Europe seems to be expecting us to rally. Our own futures are up a little, but nervously so, and it will be a very interesting day.

Oil pulled back but only a little in overnight trading, but gold and other metals lost a point even though fighting is getting worse in Lebanon.

How much oil is off the market? 400,000 barrels. That makes about 8M gallons of gas. This would force our 200M drivers to each cut back on 10 miles of driving per day if it couldn't be replaced. It is enough jet fuel to fill up 123 747s out of the thousands of trips taken every day. It is enough to heat 300,000 homes per day or would force 30,000,000 homes to turn the heat down 1 degree.

So I maintain that anything over $77 would be a severe overreaction and $80 is unsustainable -- despite what the alarmists are telling you.


If the Fed does what is responsible for our future and raises rates then I will be shorting oil stocks. SLB, XOM, SU, SUN, OXY come to mind.

If the Fed does what is popular, there are many beaten down stocks that should do very well:

HD Sept $35s seem very resonable for $1.05 and make a nice hurricane play.

I'm a well known fan of SIRI at $3.80 or less.

If there's a party, you know Vegas is invited so MGM March $40s for $2.35 are reasonable with a stop out/don't play below $34.

HET is way oversold and the comps are going to be spectacular as long as another hurricane doesn't close them down. The Nov $65s for $1.45 are my anti-hurricane play.

TIF is due anyway but let's give them a quarter on the Jan $35s for $1.20.

EBAY with a forward p/e of 19? It's growing at 25%! Oct $25s are a little pricey at $1.65 but that's less than the Jan $27.50s.

I don't know if IBM will pop on the pension settlement but I doubt its going lower than $73 and the Jan $80s are just $2.20.

I'm still waiting for GE to participate in something and Sept $32.50s for .85 are a good way to play the next 6 weeks.

BA has been treating the 50 dma like kryptonite but I like the risk/reward of the Jan $90s for $1.85 as the $95s are $1.05 (.80 down) vs. the $85s at $3.80 ($1.95 up).

Any builder makes a good play. We are already in FRK but I'd like to add NCS on the pure commercial side. If they break their 200 dma at $52 they are good to go so watch that level but
we can pick up the $50s for $1.10 ahead of the Fed as a strong gamble.

The easy money has been made on HOV, we picked them when they wouldn't pick themselves on that terrible guidance but sentiment is holding the Sept $30s down to $1.50 even though the stock opened Friday at $30.67.

BZH quietly snuck over the 50 dma for the first time since April yesterday so the Sept $45s make a nice play at $2.45 with a stop out below $43.50.

Whoever Sprint announces at their WiMax partner should do quite well today but no matter who they choose it should serve to remind people that a whole new generation of Intel chips will be shipping soon. Jan $17.50s for $1.50 are pricey but you can sell the Sept $17.50s for .60 if the stock doesn't take off today.

Let's watch CSCO's earnings today but guidance will trump the numbers. $17.50s are .55 and make a nice day trade as I think they will hit .70 before earnings.

TEVA had a huge beat and raised guidance, they should zoom past $35 but again, the war overhang is going to be tough to beat on this ridiculously cheap stock.