Results from the NYSE International 100 Index calculated as of June 14, 2013 projecting gain results one year hence showed Vale S.A. (NYSE:VALE) the Brazilian Miner with over a 53% price upside. One other NYSE International Index stock projected over a 50% one year price gain based on one year mean target price set by brokerage analysts. CNOOC Ltd. (NYSE:CEO), the Hong Kong-based oil and gas exploration and production subsidiary of China National Offshore Oil Corporation showed a near 52% gain.
The chart above used one year mean target prices set by brokerage analysts multiplied by the number of shares in a $1k investment to compare ten NYSE International Index stocks showing the highest upside price potential into 2014 out of 20 selected by yield. The number of analysts providing price estimates was noted after the name for each stock. Three to nine analysts were considered optimal for a valid mean target price estimate.
Below are the Arnold NYSE International 100 Index top dog selections for June.
Dog Metrics Ranked NYSE International 100 Stocks by Yield
Investor Glossary summarized dividend dog methodology thus: " ...[I]nvented to find the 10 stocks of the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average with the highest yield (dividend / price) and invest equally in each, [t]he Dow dividend theory also requires that you repeat this process once a year. This report presumed dividend dog methodology applied to any index and compared that index side by side with the Dow.
The NYSE states, "The NYSE International100 Index tracks the largest 100 non-U.S. common stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange. As of year-end 2004, the companies represented have a combined market capitalization (float-adjusted) of $4.3 trillion. Together they represent over one-quarter of the total market capitalization of all common stocks listed on the NYSE."
As of June 14, the top two stocks that showed the biggest dividend yields in this index were technology firms: top dog was France Telecom (FTE); VimpelCom Ltd. (NASDAQ:VIP), second. A third technology firm, BCE, Inc. (NYSE:BCE) placed eighth. Two financial firms placed third and fifth Westpac Banking Corp. (NYSE:WBK), and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentarie, S.A. (NYSE:BBVA). A lone healthcare firm AstraZeneca PLC (NYSE:AZN) was fourth. A single utility, National Grid PLC (NYSE:NGG) was sixth. Three basic materials firms completed the NYSE International top ten dogs: Vale S.A., in seventh place; ENI S.p.A.(NYSE:E) in ninth; Royal Dutch Shell PLC B (NYSE:RDS.B) in tenth. In all just five of nine sectors were represented on this International list.
Dividend vs. Price Results Compared to Dow Dogs
Below is a graph of the relative strengths of the top ten NYSE International 100 dogs by yield as of market close 6/14/2013 compared to those of the Dow. Historic projected annual dividend history from $1000 invested in each of the ten highest yielding stocks and the total single share prices of those ten stocks created the data points shown in green for price and blue for dividend.
Actionable Conclusion (1): NYSE International 100 Dogs Shrink from Bear as Dow Dogs Stay Bullish
NYSE International 100 top dividend payers returned to a bearish stance since April. In the past month NYSE International 100 top ten dog dividend from $1k invested in each of the top ten popped up 25% while aggregate single share price plummeted 35%.
For the Dow dogs, meanwhile, projected annual dividend from $1k invested in each of the top ten dropped over 2.2% since April, while aggregate single share price popped up over 13.6%. Dow dogs increased their overbought condition as aggregate single share price of the ten exceeded projected annual dividend from $1k invested in each of the ten by over $198 or 53%.
Since NYSE International 100 dogs are not the blue chip high quality equivalents of the Dow list, an additional gauge of upside potential was added to the simple high yield metric used to pull bargains.
Actionable Conclusion (2): Wall Street Wizard Wisdom Weighed to Calculate Over 18% Net Gain from Top 20 NYSE International 100 Dogs In 2014
The top twenty dogs from the NYSE International 100 index were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of June 14, 2013 and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2014.
A hypothetical $1000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The shares number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter the analyst mean target price was used to gauge the stock price upsides and net gains including dividends less broker fees as of 2014.
Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those twenty stocks divided by 2 created data points for 2013. Projections based on estimated increases in dividend amounts from $1000 invested in the twenty highest yielding stocks and aggregate one year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance divided by 2 created the 2014 data points green for price and blue for dividends.
Yahoo projected a 5.2% lower dividend from $10K invested in this group while aggregate single share price was projected to increase early 5% in the coming year. The number of analysts contributing to the mean target price estimate for each stock was noted in the last column on the charts. Three to nine analysts was considered optimal for a valid estimate.
Actionable Conclusion (3): Analysts Forecast 10 NYSE International 100 DiviDogs to Net 17.2% to 56.4% By June 2014
Ten probable profit generating trades from $1k investments revealed by Yahoo Finance for 2014 were:
- Vale S.A. netted $564.57 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from nineteen analysts less broker fees;
- CNOOC Ltd. netted $542.30, based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate by four analysts less broker fees;
- AcelorMittal (NYSE:MT) netted $377.05 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from six analysts less broker fees;
- VimpelCom Ltd (VIP) netted $340.35 based on dividends plus the mean of annual price estimates from eighteen analysts less broker fees;
- Canon Inc. (NYSE:CAJ) netted $320.27 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from two analysts less broker fees;
- ENI S.p.A. (E) netted $234.68 based on a mean target price estimate from three analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees;
- EnCana Corp. (NYSE:ECA) netted $228.43 based on estimates from twenty-five analysts plus dividends less broker fees;
- BP PLC (NYSE:BP) netted $204.32 based on a mean target price estimate from nine analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees;
- Total S.A. (NYSE:TOT) netted $184.99, based on dividend plus mean target price estimates from seven analysts less broker fees;
- Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE:CM) netted $172.56 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from six analysts less broker fees.
The average net gain in dividend and price was over 31.6% on $1k invested in each of these ten dogs.
The stocks listed above were suggested only as decent starting points for your index dog dividend stock purchase research process. These were not recommendations.
The gains noted above did not factor-in any foreign tax problems resulting from distributions and any possible re-capture tax problems/rates that may suck projected gains out of some of these estimates at the regular tax bracket rate and not capital gain rates. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source of "dividends" from any investment.
Seeking Alpha reader requests prompted this series of index-specific articles reporting dividend yield plus price upside results for twelve popular stock indices: Dow 30; S&P 500; S&P Aristocrats; Russell 50; NASDAQ; NYSE International 100; Mergent Dividend Achievers; Champions; Contenders; Challengers; Carnevale's Power 25; Carnevale's Super 29.
Disclosure: I am long DD, GE, INTC, JNJ, MCD, PFE, T, VZ. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same