Ariad Pharmaceuticals: Advancing in Front of Phase 3 Interim Results

The Lucky 13 Buys portfolio continues to advance.

In the past two sessions, some of the companies have seen a dramatic rise in their share prices. View the results from Friday, July 24 in this article.

As of the close on Tuesday, July 28, four companies are up over 30%. While seven of the 13 have achieved gains exceeding 20%, nine are above 10%.

Symbol	Last/NAV	%Gain/Loss
ARIA	2.80	85.43%
ONTY	4.40	37.07%
SUPG	2.70	33.00%
GTXI	10.58	30.46%
FSYS	23.98	28.79%
SWC	6.39	26.04%
ONB	11.33	20.92%
SPPI	6.75	19.89%
PRXL	14.44	14.33%
UNG	12.90	5.91%
TOMO	2.78	5.30%
CLNE	8.94	3.83%
OSIR	12.70	1.36%

Data is based on the closing prices on Tuesday July 7 to Tuesday July 27, 2009.

Ariad Pharmaceuticals (ARIA) shares jumped following a significant Phase 1 clinical trial announcement and in front of much anticipated interim phase 3 results for the company’s cancer drug, ridaforolimus. An announcement is due any day. ARIA will report quarterly earnings on Thursday, July 30 at 4:15 PM ET. Investors can access the webcast here.

Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (SPPI) continues its climb as investors anticipate the company’s two cancer drugs, Zevalin and Fusilev, will be approved on or before September 7 and October 8, 2009, respectively.

Old National Bank (ONB) rose early this week on a positive quarterly earnings announcement.

Disclosure: Long ARIA and SPPI

Comments

[Kumar_kp]

I am unlucky I discovered your Lucky13 post only today. Great picks - nice upward movement in all of them. Are you going to publish another list next month?

2009 Jul 29 06:49 PM

[Justin M. Hall]

Kumar_kp:

Thank you for the feedback!

I continue to like the 13 companies listed above and believe each has more room to run over the next 6 to 12 months.

As far as future lists, I encourage you to check my SeekingAlpha Instablog periodically.

URL: seekingalpha.com/autho...

Keep in touch!


Justin M. Hall

2009 Jul 30 05:00 AM

[Rumi Frost]

Hey Justin,

I am long on SPPI, ARIA & CVM.
What do think the PPS of ARIA would be
if the ridaforolimus results are positive?

rgds
Rumi

2009 Jul 30 10:00 AM

[Justin M. Hall]

Rumi Frost:

Thank you for the question.

Regarding the ARIA's price, it is very difficult to determine what the price will be following a catalyst.

I do share the belief that an interim analysis of Phase 3 data for a potentially [very] effective cancer drug is a significant catalyst, one that investors would likely reward nicely.

Because ARIA has a term-friendly collaboration with MRK, most investors could foresee the possibility of an acquisition. It is worth noting that MRK appears on Mike Harvilla's Big Pharma Patent Exposure Index(C) at biomedreports.com. This means, MRK may need to expand their pipeline as some of their existing drugs are nearing patent expiration. With positive data, deforolimus would certainly make an excellent addition to MRK's cancer drug portfolio.

While I did not provide you with a specific price, I hope the response provided is helpful. Thank you again for the question.

Good luck!

Justin

2009 Jul 31 03:03 AM

[R. Ennis]

What now Justin? Merck backing out of deal, is there still a near term catalyst? I don't see one.

I'm holding options that expire in Aug. have a feeling they are worthless....


On Jul 31 03:03 AM Justin M. Hall wrote:

> Rumi Frost:
>
> Thank you for the question.
>
> Regarding the ARIA's price, it is very difficult to determine what
> the price will be following a catalyst.
>
> I do share the belief that an interim analysis of Phase 3 data for
> a potentially [very] effective cancer drug is a significant catalyst,
> one that investors would likely reward nicely.
>
> Because ARIA has a term-friendly collaboration with MRK, most investors
> could foresee the possibility of an acquisition. It is worth noting
> that MRK appears on Mike Harvilla's Big Pharma Patent Exposure Index(seekingalpha.com/symbol/c)
> at biomedreports.com. This means, MRK may need to expand
> their pipeline as some of their existing drugs are nearing patent
> expiration. With positive data, deforolimus would certainly make
> an excellent addition to MRK's cancer drug portfolio.
>
> While I did not provide you with a specific price, I hope the response
> provided is helpful. Thank you again for the question.
>
> Good luck!
>
> Justin

2009 Jul 31 11:20 AM

[Justin M. Hall]

R. Ennis:

You should consider listening to the conference call. Merck did not back out on the collaboration with ARIA. You are misrepresenting the facts. One phase 2 trial out of four was discontinued due to the combination of drugs selected for the trial. That's hardly backing out on the deal.

As I said earlier this week, ARIA is a speculative play. Maybe this sort of investing is NOT for you. Based on your reaction, you might consider talking with a financial advisor. It appears you may need one.

I do wish the best.

Justin

2009 Jul 31 01:02 PM

[R. Ennis]

Oh, I'm fine don't worry about me. I'm sincerely asking you what the near term catalyst is? Is phase III preliminary data still any day?


On Jul 31 01:02 PM Justin M. Hall wrote:

> R. Ennis:
>
> You should consider listening to the conference call. Merck did
> not back out on the collaboration with ARIA. You are misrepresenting
> the facts. One phase 2 trial out of four was discontinued due to
> the combination of drugs selected for the trial. That's hardly backing
> out on the deal.
>
> As I said earlier this week, ARIA is a speculative play. Maybe this
> sort of investing is NOT for you. Based on your reaction, you might
> consider talking with a financial advisor. It appears you may need
> one.
>
> I do wish the best.
>
> Justin

2009 Jul 31 01:41 PM

[Justin M. Hall]

R.Ennis:

The first interim Phase 3 analysis could be announced any day between today and September 30, 2009.

I hope this helps.

In my view, ARIA is a longer-term speculative investment. These things take time to pan out.

Good luck, sir.

Justin

2009 Jul 31 02:16 PM