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It has been some time since we’ve seen a 7% day in crude oil. Prices traded through the 61.8% Fibonacci level today as prices do not look like they are done moving lower on this current leg. We foreshadowed this, and with the dollar moving through the 20 day moving average up today almost a full1% it just happened sooner than we thought. Natural gas also suffered today… for new entries we maintain the purchase of October and November $1 call spreads. In the next 7-10 days we would just do November. For those already in the trade we will now try to buy back the top leg.
The risk aversion trade we spoke to yesterday is happening, unfortunately with equities lower and the dollar higher the yen is not cooperating, so we advised clients to cut losses, approximately $200 per contract. We expect to see a healthy correction in international currencies, so stay tuned for lower entry points.
On further downside in silver we will most likely advise clients to buy back their top legs. For fresh entries waiting for a further pullback, $12.50 to $13.00 you should start buying again. The NOB spread put on yesterday for clients is working in their favor, again we are looking for bonds to gain on notes.
December corn still looks like a buy, we were buyers of December $3.80 calls for clients today. October live cattle was down 130 ticks today. We should reach our downside objective in the next few days. Clients were advised to exit their coffee spreads, some at a slight profit, others at a scratch. Cocoa was lower by almost 3% today, on further dollar upside this trade should pan out well.
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The Nat Gas stocks are trading oddly and should be showing more weakness than they currently do. All the commodities are still drastically overbought. Why is there such upward pressure trying to prop everything up?
www.marketoracle.co.uk...
Peter Krauth writes: As you review your investment portfolio to size up your current exposure to gold, keep one key point in mind: When it comes to profits, there's no rush like a speculative gold rush.
if you were a Long term 401K investor and been in the market since 1998 , you have not made a dime , and in fact if you factor in wage stagflation , which is now really amplified with massive unemployment and no end in sight making higher wage level even more unsustainable , and cost of living increases over the past 10 years , the Inflation they are saying is under control is a big Fat LIE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
A 'time bomb' for world wheat crop - Los Angeles Times
Jun 14, 2009 ... Crop scientists fear the Ug99 fungus could wipe out more than 80% of worldwide wheat crops as it spreads .... Los Angeles Times. Science ...
articles.latimes.com/2... - Cached - Similar
Ug99 fungus and spurt in agriculture ETFs | 17 June 2009 | www ...
Jun 17, 2009 ... Crop scientists fear the Ug99 fungus could wipe out more than 80% of ... Karen Kaplan for The Los Angeles Times reports that the wind will ...
commodityonline.com/.....
fredthompsonshow.com/p...
MzUxJnBsYXlsaXN0PXRydW...
XlsaXN0U2l6ZT01
On Jul 30 12:50 PM ksmithdc wrote:
> Unfortunately Mr. Obama sees health care as a commodity. And if
> that continues, we're all sunk.
fredthompsonshow.com/p...
MzUxJnBsYXlsaXN0PXRydW...
XlsaXN0U2l6ZT01
you will have to click on this persons link to hear the interview once on the site of the Fred Thompson interviews
Betsy McCaughey Interview July 27, 2009
Patient Advocate and Founder of the Committee to Reduce Invectious Deaths Betsy McCaughey calls in the show.
Download
On Jul 30 04:08 PM hungry4food wrote:
> Health care House Bill assaults the elderly . Page 425 is mandating
> a counseling session to learn how to end their life for societies
> best interest . listen to the interview ....
>
>
> fredthompsonshow.com/p...;headerDest=L3BnL2pzcC...
>
> MzUxJnBsYXlsaXN0PXRydW...
> XlsaXN0U2l6ZT01
>
>
> you will have to click on this persons link to hear the interview
> once on the site of the Fred Thompson interviews
>
> Betsy McCaughey Interview July 27, 2009
> Patient Advocate and Founder of the Committee to Reduce Invectious
> Deaths Betsy McCaughey calls in the show.
> Download
Suppose that every day, ten men go out for beer and the bill for all ten comes to $100. If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this:
The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing.
The fifth would pay $1.
The sixth would pay $3.
The seventh would pay $7.
The eighth would pay $12.
The ninth would pay $18.
The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59.
So, that's what they decided to do. The ten men drank in the bar every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the owner threw them a curve.
"Since you are all such good customers", he said, "I'm going to reduce the cost of your daily beer by $20". Drinks for the ten now cost just $80.
The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes so the first four men were unaffected. They would still drink for free. But what about the other six men - the paying customers? How could they divide the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his "fair share?"
They realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtracted that from everybody's share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would each end up being paid to drink his beer. So, the bar owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man's bill by roughly the same amount, and he proceeded to work out the amounts each should pay.
And so:
The fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (100% savings).
The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3 (33%savings).
The seventh now pay $5 instead of $7 (28%savings).
The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12 (25% savings).
The ninth now paid $14 instead of $18 (22% savings).
The tenth now paid $49 instead of $59 (16% savings).
Each of the six was better off than before. And the first four continued to drink for free. But once outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings.
"I only got a dollar out of the $20," declared the sixth man. He pointed to the tenth man, "but he got $10!"
"Yeah, that's right," exclaimed the fifth man. "I only saved a dollar, too. It's unfair that he got ten times more than I!"
"That's true!!" shouted the seventh man. "Why should he get $10 back when I got only two? The wealthy get all the breaks!"
"Wait a minute," yelled the first four men in unison. "We didn't get anything at all. The system exploits the poor!"
The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up.
The next night the tenth man didn't show up for drinks, so the nine sat down and had beers without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important. They didn't have enough money between all of them for even half of the bill!
And that, boys and girls, journalists and college professors, is how our tax system works. The people who pay the highest taxes get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up anymore. In fact, they might start drinking overseas where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier.