Winnebago (NYSE:WGO) is expected to report earnings on Thursday, June 27th. The whisper number is $0.25, two cents behind the analysts' estimate. Whispers range from a low of $0.22 to a high of $0.26. WGO has a 60% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 15 of the 25 earnings reports for which we have data).
- Beat whisper: 15 qtrs
- Met whisper: 0 qtrs
- Missed whisper: 10 qtrs
Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock's price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we look at what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.
The table below indicates the average post earnings price movement within a one and 30 trading day time frame:
The strongest price movement of -2.8% comes within five trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and +4.8% within 20 trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. The overall average price move is "opposite" (beat the whisper and see weakness, miss and see strength) when the company reports earnings.
The table below indicates the most recent earnings reports and short-term price reaction:
Last quarter, the company reported earnings eight cents ahead of the whisper number. Following that report, the stock realized a 19.4% loss in 20 trading days. Overall historical data indicates the company to be (on average) an "opposite" price reactor when the company reports earnings.
Enter your expectation and view more earnings information here, or let us know your expectation in the comments section below.
Since 1998, WhisperNumber.com has been tracking and publishing "crowd sourced estimates" for earnings. We call these earnings expectations whisper numbers. Our whisper numbers are gained from individual investors and traders just like you that have registered with our site. While the whisper number itself is an important part of our analysis, a company's "price reaction" to beating or missing the whisper number expectation is the key. On average, companies that exceed the whisper are "rewarded," while companies that miss are "punished" following an earnings report. Trading on whispers is a technical play on market psychology, rather than a bet on a company's fundamental strengths.