Remember our chart from last Friday, June 21, 2013 - the one that we said wouldn't be sending a "sell signal" until sometime in the next week?
Well, here you go, as we update our chart through Wednesday, June 26, 2013. Now what will you do?
If it helps, what this chart is really saying is that the period of relative order in the market that accompanied the rally that really got under way after November 15, 2012, is over. With the 20-day moving average for stock prices having now moved outside the outer limits of our "normal" target range for this period of order, we can say that the data points falling outside this range aren't just outliers for an existing trend, but are rather evidence that the previous trend itself has broken down.
And yet, the question remains. Now what will you do?
If it helps, let's zoom out and look at the larger scale trend for stock prices. The one that has existed since stock prices stabilized onto an overall upward trajectory following the aftermath of the end of QE 2.0 (our first chart focused on just the region of this chart within the purple rectangle):
Well, that didn't help much, did it? Well, how about this. Our favorite indicator of distress in the stock market, the price-dividend growth ratio (the "G-ratio") appears to have peaked this month. Typically, when that happens, stock prices will go on to hit a significant trough within the next three months, falling from the average level of stock prices for the month in which the peak in the G-ratio occurred.
Now what will you do?