BlackBerry (formerly Research in Motion) (NASDAQ:BBRY) is expected to report earnings on Friday, June 28th. The whisper number is $0.02, one cent behind the analysts' estimate. Whispers range from a low of -$0.01 to a high of $0.07. BBRY has an 46% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 16 of the 35 earnings reports for which we have data).
- Beat whisper: 16 qtrs
- Met whisper: 0 qtrs
- Missed whisper: 19 qtrs
Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock's price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we look at what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.
The table below indicates the average post earnings price movement within a one and thirty trading day time frame:
The strongest price movement of +7.3% comes within thirty trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and +1.0% within thirty trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. The overall average price move is 'positive' (beat the whisper and see strength, miss and see strength) when the company reports earnings, although the price move is limited when they report earnings that fall short of the whisper number.
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Since 1998, WhisperNumber.com has been tracking and publishing "crowd sourced estimates" for earnings. We call these earnings expectations whisper numbers. Our whisper numbers are gained from individual investors and traders just like you that have registered with our site. While the whisper number itself is an important part of our analysis, a company's "price reaction" to beating or missing the whisper number expectation is the key. On average, companies that exceed the whisper are "rewarded," while companies that miss are "punished" following an earnings report. Trading on whispers is a technical play on market psychology, rather than a bet on a company's fundamental strengths.