Monthly pay (mopay) dividend dog stocks reviewed since June and July 2012 prompted reader suggestions to expand the stocks list to include funds, trusts, and partnerships. A list of mopay equities to buy and hold in October came from those suggestions supplemented by a high yield collection from here. Thereafter the docile, sleeping dogs list was supplemented by an upside potential article in October and a upside vs. buy & hold in November. Another list factored December reader comments. January, February, March, April, and May reader input have all contributed to this article which compared and contrasted June mopay stock upside potential against high yield (and higher risk) buy and hold fund, trust and partnership constituents. Six actionable conclusions were drawn.
Monthly Pay Dividend Pros and Cons
Quarterly and annual pay dividend stock owners anxiously await announcements from a firm, fund, or analyst to learn if their next dividend will be higher, lower, or paid at all. Monthly pay stocks, funds, trusts, and partnerships inform the holder every four and one third weeks by check or statement. If the equity reduces or suspends a payment, the holder can sell out of the investment immediately to cut future losses. This advantage has been countered when companies suddenly cut monthly dividends to save cash and trigger a price crash.
In January reader TennisBoy88 wrote: "One other advantage of monthly paying stocks is the way they are slightly protected against traders that buy just before the ex-date and sell after the record date. The brokerage commissions they have to pay for a measly monthly dividend helps keep them away and the stock price doesn't fluctuate so wildly."
Many readers were offended by the term "dividend" applied to REITs, MLPs and hybrid financial institutions. For example, arbtrdr wrote, "The only problem with this analysis is you are comparing companies of VERY different varieties. REITs pay no taxes and their distributions are classified as ordinary income and thus not subject to the 15% or 20% tax rate. MLPs also pay little no taxes at the corporate level, but instead have "distributions"... Comparing REITs, MLPs and regular corporations thus requires a financial analysis...not include[d].
Dogs of the Index Metrics Extracted Bargains
For this article twenty-nine dividend equities plus thirty funds and trusts were culled from over 400 entities paying monthly returns. These were ranked as of June 21, 2013 using the two key dog performance metrics: (1) stock price; (2) annual dividend. Dividing the annual dividend by the price declared the percentage yield by which each dividend dog stock was ranked.
June Monthly Pay Dividend Stocks
The ten monthly dividend equities showing the best yields for June represented just three of the nine Yahoo market sectors. Top two dog stocks revealed by Yahoo Finance data were Javelin Mortgage Investment Corp. (NYSE:JMI), and Armour Residential REIT (NYSE:ARR), two of seven financial firms that dominated the list. The remaining five financial mopay dogs placed fourth through eighth: Prospect Capital Corporation (NASDAQ:PSEC); Full Circle Capital Corp. (NASDAQ:FULL); Fifth Street Finance (NASDAQ:FSC); Gladstone Capital Corporation (NASDAQ:GLAD); Horizon Technology Finance Corp. (NASDAQ:HRZN).
The third slot in the top ten was filled by the lone utility on the list, Just Energy Group Inc. (NYSE:JE). One basic materials concern, Pengrowth Energy (NYSE:PGH), was eighth and a utility, Atlantic Power Corporation (NYSE:AT) rounded out the list in tenth place.
Dividend vs. Price Results for mopay Divi Stocks
Relative strength for the top ten mopay dividend dog stocks by yield was graphed below as of June 21, 2013. Ten periods of historic projected annual dividend history from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks and the total single share price of those ten stocks created the data points for each period shown in blue for dividend and green for price.
Actionable Conclusion (1): mopay DiviDog Stocks Stay on a Very Bearish Path
Charts displayed mopay dividend dog stocks in a bearish trend since March. Dividend from 1k invested in each of the top ten stocks increased 15% while aggregate single share price of the ten dropped 31% in the past three months. In the past month alone dividend increased 12% while price dropped 12%.
Actionable Conclusion Two (2): Analysts See 2014 Top mopay DiviDog Stock Net Gains over 25%
Top ten dogs on the mopay stock list were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of June 21, 2013 and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2014.
Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those ten stocks created the data points for 2013. Projections based on estimated increases in dividend amounts from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks and aggregate one year analyst mean target prices as reported by Yahoo Finance created the 2014 data points in blue for dividend and green for price. Note: one year target estimated prices below current price were also included.
Actionable Conclusion (3): Analysts Forecast 2014 NEXT10 mopay DiviDog Stock Net Gains over 20%
The ten monthly dividend equities showing the next best yields in June also represented just three of the nine Yahoo market sectors. The eleventh dog stock revealed by Yahoo Finance data, Vanguard Natural Resources (NASDAQ:VNR), was one of three basic materials firms listed. The other two basic materials firms, Enerplus Corp. (NYSE:ERF), and Baytex Energy Corp. (NYSE:BTE), placed sixteenth and eighteenth. Twelfth dog, Student Transportation, Inc. (NASDAQ:STB) was the lone services stock on the list. Gladstone Investment (NASDAQ:GAIN) in thirteenth position was the best of six financial firms that included Gladstone Commercial REIT (NASDAQ:GOOD) and Solar Senior Capital Ltd. (NASDAQ:SUNS) in fourteenth and fifteenth places. Whitestone REIT (NYSE:WSR) was seventeenth. Main Street Capital Corp. (NYSE:MAIN) and America Realty Capital Properties (ARCP) in nineteenth and twentieth slots competed the next ten June mopay dividog list .
Charting mopay DiviDog Stock June Upsides
Ten equities paying out top monthly dividend yields were ranked using the two key dog performance metrics: (1) stock price; (2) annual dividend. Dividing the annual dividend by the price declared the percentage yield by which each dividend dog stock was primarily ranked. (3) One year mean target price estimates by analysts flagged five of the top ten mopay equities showing higher prices for 2014 and (4) one year mean target price estimates by analysts also flagged five of the next ten mopay equities showing higher prices for 2014.
A hypothetical $1000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find a number of shares purchased. The number of shares was multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find a dividend return amount. Thereafter one year mean target prices multiplied by the number of shares supplemented the dividend amount minus a flat $20 broker fee to determine a net gain amount for the top five stocks showing upside price gains into 2014.
For the coming year Yahoo Finance projected an 11% lower dividend from $1k invested in each stock within the top ten mopay group while aggregate single share price for the top ten was projected by analysts to increase by 12%.
The next ten dogs showed a 15.5% lower dividend from $1k invested in each stock while share price for the next ten was projected by analysts to increase by 22%.
The number of analysts contributing to the mean target price estimate for each stock is noted in the far right column on the above charts. Three to nine analysts was considered optimal for a valid projection estimate.
Actionable Conclusion (4): Analysts Forecast Ten mopay Dogs to Net 22.5% to 58.6% Gains by June 2014
Ten probable profit generating trades revealed by Yahoo Finance for 2014 were:
- Armour Residential REIT netted $586.59 based on estimates from nine analysts plus dividends less broker fees;
- Baytex Energy Corp. netted $488.41, based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate by eleven analysts less broker fees;
- Atlantic Power Corporation netted $484.65, based on dividend plus mean target price estimates from three analysts less broker fees;
- America Realty Capital Properties netted $375.16 based on a mean target price estimate from two analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees;
- Pengrowth Energy netted $360.46 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from eight analysts less broker fees;
- Enerplus Corp. netted $329.93 based on a mean target price estimate from eight analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees;
- Student Transportation, Inc. netted $242.81 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from four analysts less broker fees;
- Horizon Technology Finance Corporation netted $241.25 based on dividends plus the mean of annual price estimates from five analysts less broker fees;
- Vanguard Natural Resources netted $230.99 based on estimates from twelve analysts plus dividends less broker fees;
- Fifth Street Finance Corporation netted $225.24 based on dividends plus the mean of annual price estimates from ten analysts less broker fees.
The average net gain in dividend and price was over 21% on $1k invested in each of these ten dogs.
The above net gain estimates did not factor-in any tax problems resulting from distributions (not dividends and K-1s) from MLPs and any possible re-capture tax problems/rates that could suck projected gains out of some of these estimates at the regular tax bracket rate and not capital gain rates. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.
The stocks listed were only suggested as decent starting points for your mopay dividend dog stock purchase research process. These were not recommendations.
Monthly Pay Dividend Funds and Trusts For June
The thirty top monthly dividend paying (mopay) funds and trusts listed above were culled from over 400 candidates then ranked by yields calculated as of June 21 to determine the Top Ten.
Ten monthly dividend funds and trusts showing the biggest yields for June featured nine funds and one trust. The top fund as revealed by Yahoo Finance data was Cornerstone Strategic Value Fund (NYSEMKT:CLM). [Cornerstone Progressive Return Fund (CFP) might have been at the top had it not suspended its rights offering June 24.] Gamco Global Gold Natural Resources & Income Trust (NYSEMKT:GGN) placed second. Two PIMCO funds placed third and sixth in the yield rankings, PIMCO High Income Fund (NYSE:PHK), and PIMCO Global StocksPLUS & Income (NYSE:PGP). Two AGIC funds placed fourth and fifth: AGIC Convertible and Income Fund II (NYSE:NCZ); AGIC Convertible & Income Fund I (NYSE:NCV). The balance of the top ten funds and trusts were: Guggenheim Strategic Opportunities (NYSE:GOF) in seventh; Pioneer High Income Trust (NYSE:PHT) in eighth; First Trust/Aberdeen Global Opportunity Fund (NYSE:FAM) in ninth; finally, Western Asset High Income Fund II (NYSE:HIX) in tenth completed the list.
Fund & Trust Dividend & Price Results vs. mopay Top Ten Stocks
Below relative strengths for the top ten mopay Dividend F&T Dogs by yield was graphed as of June 21, 2013 and compared to those of the top ten stocks. Ten periods of historic projected annual dividend history from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding equities and the total single share prices of those ten equities created the data points for each period shown in blue for dividends and green for price.
Actionable Conclusion (5): mopay Top Ten DiviDog Funds and Trusts Had Mixed Results Unlike Stocks
Charts showed mopay dividend dog funds and trusts with mixed results since May. Projected dividend from 1k invested in each of the top ten funds and trusts increased 3% while aggregate single share price of the ten over the same period also increased over 5% for the month.
A gap between aggregate single share price of top ten mopay funds and trusts and their projected dividend from $1k invested in those ten equities decreased from 873% in May to 854% in June 2013.
Since May the top ten mopay stocks stayed bearish as projected dividend from $1k invested in each pup increased 12% while aggregate single share price dropped 12%. The gap between aggregate single share price and dividend from $1k invested in each for the ten mopay stocks widened. In May it measured 1094%. By June it stood at 1426%.
As of June 21 the top mopay fund and trust dogs showed $58.84 or 4.6% less dividend at a $43.80 or 52.5% higher aggregate single share price than the mopay stocks top ten.
Actionable Conclusion (6): Buy and Hold Monthly Dividend Paying Funds & Trusts, If You Dare
Stock analysts don't hazard guesses as to when or how much fund and trust prices will rise or fall. They are paid to gauge individual stocks, and a few funds and partnerships. Hence this monthly pay F&T dog diligence only revealed a list of funds and trusts to buy and hold if you dare. However, the risk for an investment in mopay dividend funds and trusts has dropped since the first of the year while the risk for an investment in mopay stocks has increased.
Disclosure: I am long ARR, AT, ERF, FSC, HRZN, PGH. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.