eBay: Essential Data

eBay Getting its Groove Back?

Investors have been very optimistic about eBay’s prospects. Today the stock is hovering around $22.00 – more than doubling since it’s March 9^th low of $9.91. eBay’s 2nd quarter earnings looked promising and the metrics look like eBay is finally capitalizing on the weak economy.

eBay stock price since March 9th, 2009

I wanted to provide data that would give investors as much information about eBay so they can make educated decisions about their investments.

First, let me post here my own tables showing quarterly and annual revenue growth statistics.

click to enlarge


As you can see, revenue started contracting in the Q3 of 2008. This trend was not reversed until this most recent quarter when eBay's management was finally able to stem the bleeding - an impressive feat in this economy. I base my Q3 and Q4 forecasts on the 2.51% sequential growth trend of Q2



Annually you see that eBay is on track to record a slight decrease in revenue. Again, this is based on the current trajectory from Q2. If eBay continues to execute and produce a strong Q3 and Q4 - we may see record revenues for 2009 which would be huge for the eBay investment community. There is a lot of opportunity here - with the marketplaces improving and Paypal/Skype growing healthily - it is a big possibility

Make sure you take advantage of eBay’s own investor page. eBay’s investor page has more then just regular earnings reports. Detailed PowerPoint decks and investor presentations are stored here.

One of the more essential presentations was the presentation eBay gave for analyst day. It's a large powerpoint deck (over 200 slides - 2009 Analyst Presentation (14 megs).

Another great site is Medved.net eBay Auction Counts. The site is a treasure trove of information and monitors eBay’s pages 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, at 1.5 hour intervals for their auction counts and now, the sell-through statistics.

A look at the 2009 auction counts show a huge increase in listings. This is especially positive since the 2^nd and 3^rd quarter traditional have been eBay’s weakest and usually have a drop in listings. Having growth during these times is, I believe, a testament to eBay’s counter-cyclical nature. Some people have called eBay “recession proof”. I believe as the economy continues to struggle and more and more people are out of work – that old doohickey that they bought during the boom times are getting listed on eBay – conversely, people with limited budgets wouldn’t mind a “like new” doo-dad if they can save some extra money.

The next sites that are useful are traffic rankings for ebay’s properties. You should always use different sources to come to a sort of “average” traffic ranking since ranking sites you their own type of data gathering. More often then not, the true ranking lies somewhere between different sites.

The two I use are Alexa.com



Neilsen Online



For Skype usage, The Borderless Communicator is essential. This site records a huge amount of user information and has shown steady cyclical growth for Skype.

I hope readers of this posting find this information useful.

Disclosure: Long eBay

Comments

[Allan kraig]

You can put all the pretty pictures & charts up you want but it means nothing .. You forfet the foundation of eBay is built upon it's sellers backs .. eBay has pissed off its core sellers & continues to beat them up over & over .. eBay will not recover until it makes amends with its sellers .. Allan Kraig

2009 Jul 31 06:21 AM

[Bob C]

The article states:
"A look at the 2009 auction counts show a huge increase in listings."

Please show us the sell through rates!
Diamond sellers, with their sweeheart deals, are flooding the site with goods that go Un-Sold.

Just more hype & spin.
Where did I put that barf bag?

2009 Jul 31 09:16 AM

[Lori - Ex Ebay Seller]

Despite the media's rose colored coverage of Ebay and Donahoe's new plan, Skype is crashing, Paypal is crashing (biggest scam - nobody trusts Paypal) and Ebay is a ghost town. This new round of "changes" to reward top sellers is a joke. They are rewarding the Diamond Sellers which make up 5% of sellers. The other 95% are actually getting a FEE increase. That's the truth. Ebay is also making sellers incorporate free shipinng into their price, which raises the final value fee Ebay collects. Go into Ebay and see for yourself. Go to Auction Bytes and read the seller's comments on these new changes. See for yourself what is really going on. Ebay is failing because sellers are afraid to sell and buyers are afraid to buy. Ebay's revenue is not down because sellers prefer a buy it now atmosphere. Ebay's revenue is down because they have wronged millions of buyers and sellers that will never return to Ebay, Paypal, or any of its affiliates. The Ebay sellers and buyers do want an auction site. Auctions have not gone out of style, people love them. It is Ebay that has gone out of style!

2009 Jul 31 11:33 AM

[paulz]

I used to be a quite big Ebay seller but no more. Ebay keeps hiking their fees and the sellers all got ripped off. An ancient Chinese phrase says: "Dry the Pond to Catch The Fish". They certainly caught a lot of fish (Revenue Goes Up) when t the pond was dried (Hiking Fees), but they will have to starve for a long time.

2009 Jul 31 12:06 PM

[Patricia013]

Pretty pictures are just that....pretty pictures. Read what Jatil Pateel of Deutsche Bank has to say about Ebay. He expects the stock to fall around $15.00 which is where he feels it should be:

money.cnn.com/2009/07/...

I don't bother with pretty pictures - I get in the trenches and find out what other sellers are doing and they are NOT doing well!

2009 Jul 31 12:23 PM

[fairytrixy]

You are 100% RIGHT right and right!
Yet they keep on running with it. Why?

The auctions are what buyers want but the two largest issues that ebay does not want to handle are the huge process it takes to support the real time that auctions run on. The expense for them was a grand reason to chop the number of sellers running auctions.

The other issue is the obvious shill bidding which has become even more obvious who the offenders are. They do not do a thing about it, aside from again cutting down the number of sellers.


On Jul 31 11:33 AM Lori - Ex Ebay Seller wrote:

> Despite the media's rose colored coverage of Ebay and Donahoe's new
> plan, Skype is crashing, Paypal is crashing (biggest scam - nobody
> trusts Paypal) and Ebay is a ghost town. This new round of "changes"
> to reward top sellers is a joke. They are rewarding the Diamond Sellers
> which make up 5% of sellers. The other 95% are actually getting a
> FEE increase. That's the truth. Ebay is also making sellers incorporate
> free shipinng into their price, which raises the final value fee
> Ebay collects. Go into Ebay and see for yourself. Go to Auction Bytes
> and read the seller's comments on these new changes. See for yourself
> what is really going on. Ebay is failing because sellers are afraid
> to sell and buyers are afraid to buy. Ebay's revenue is not down
> because sellers prefer a buy it now atmosphere. Ebay's revenue is
> down because they have wronged millions of buyers and sellers that
> will never return to Ebay, Paypal, or any of its affiliates. The
> Ebay sellers and buyers do want an auction site. Auctions have not
> gone out of style, people love them. It is Ebay that has gone out
> of style!

2009 Aug 03 04:05 AM