Results from Chuck Carnevale's Super 29 Index calculated as of June 14, 2013 projecting gain results one year hence showed four firms, Mine Safety Appliances Co. (NYSE:MSA), Connecticut Water Service (NASDAQ:CTWS), ABM Industries Inc. (NYSE:ABM) and Nucor Corp. (NYSE:NUE) sported 13.15% to 15.20% price upsides.
The chart above used one year mean target price set by brokerage analysts multiplied by the number of shares in a $1k investment to compare ten Carnevale Super 29 Index stocks showing the highest upside price potential into 2014 out of 20 selected by yield. The number of analysts providing price estimates was noted after the name for each stock. Three to nine analysts were considered optimal for a valid mean target price estimate.
Below, the Arnold Carnevale Super 29 Index top dog selections for June were reported.
Dog Metrics Ranked Carnevale Super 29 Index Stocks by Yield
On April 2, 2012, Seeking Alpha blogger, respected stock analyst, and creator of Fastgraphs, Chuck Carnevale, published 29 Dividend Champions That Beat The Market, Inflation & 2 Recessions Since 2001. He listed top 29 blue chip dividend growth stocks that: (1) consistently raised dividends for 37 years (or more); (2) were at or below fair market value in 2001; (3) outperformed the S&P 500 on a total return basis.
Carnevale's Super 29 top ten stocks showing the biggest projected dividend yields as of June 14, 2013 included firms representing five of nine market sectors. The top stock revealed by Yahoo Finance data was the lone representative of the financial sector, United Bankshares Inc. (NASDAQ:UBSI). The only services firm in the top ten, Bowl America Class A (NYSEMKT:BWL.A) was second dog.
Third place on the Super 29 list was filled by one of three utilities, Consolidated Edison (NYSE:ED). The other utilities, Connecticut Water Service Inc. (CTWS), and California Water Service (NYSE:CWT), were seventh and ninth on this top ten list.
The fourth dog was one of two basic materials firms, Northwest Natural Gas Co. (NYSE:NWN). The other basic materials firm Nucor Corp. (NUE), placed eighth. The balance of the top ten consisted of three consumer goods firms, Leggett & Platt Inc. (NYSE:LEG) in fifth, Diebold Inc. (NYSE:DBD) in sixth, and Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE:PG) in tenth to complete the top ten Super 29 dogs.
Chuck's full list of 29 stocks has four service, two healthcare, six consumer goods, two financial, three basic materials, six industrial goods, four utilities, no technology, and one conglomerate representing eight of nine market sectors.
Dividend vs. Price Results Compared to Dow Dogs
Below is a graph of the relative strengths of the top ten Carnevale Super 29 dogs by yield as of market close 6/14/2013 compared to those of the Dow. Historic projected annual dividend history from $1000 invested in each of the ten highest yielding stocks and the total single share prices of those ten stocks created the data points shown in green for price and blue for dividend.
Actionable Conclusion (1): Carnevale Super 29 Index Dogs Flashed Mixed Signal as Dow Stayed Bullish
The Carnevale Super 29 top May/June dividend payers turned to a bullish price course. In the past month aggregate single share ten dog price popped up 13.8%. To mix the message, the aggregate dividend from $10k invested in each of those top ten dogs also increased 0.5% since April.
For the Dow dogs, meanwhile, the projected annual dividend from $1k invested in each of the top ten dropped over 2.2% since April, while aggregate single share price popped up over 13.6%. Dow dogs increased their overbought condition as the aggregate single share price of the ten exceeded projected annual dividend from $1k invested in each of the ten by over $198 or 53%.
Since Carnevale Super 29 dogs attempt to achieve all the blue chip high quality equivalents of the Dow list, an additional gauge of upside potential was added to the simple high yield metric used to cull bargains.
Actionable Conclusion (2): Wall Street Wizard Wisdom Weighed to Calculate Near 7% Net Gain from Top 20 Carnevale Super 29 Dogs In 2014
The top twenty dogs from Chuck Carnevale's Super 29 index were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of April 4, 2013 and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2014.
A hypothetical $1000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The shares number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter, the analyst mean target price was used to gauge the stock price upsides and net gains including dividends less broker fees as of 2014.
Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $1000 invested in the ten highest yielding stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those twenty stocks divided by 2 created data points for 2013. Projections based on estimated increases in dividend amounts from $1000 invested in the twenty highest yielding stocks and aggregate one year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance divided by 2 created the 2014 data points green for price and blue for dividends.
Yahoo projected a 4.3% lower dividend from $10K invested in this group while the aggregate single share price was projected to increase nearly 4.1% in the coming year. The number of analysts contributing to the mean target price estimate for each stock was noted in the last column on the charts. Three to nine analysts was considered optimal for a valid estimate.
Actionable Conclusion (3): Analysts Forecast 10 Carnevale Super 29 Dogs to Net 7% to 16% By June 2014
Ten probable profit generating trades revealed by Yahoo Finance for 2014 were:
Connecticut Water Service (CTWS) netted $161.02, based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate by two analysts less broker fees;
Mine Safety Appliances Co. (MSA) netted $158.20 based on estimates from four analysts plus dividends less broker fees;
Nucor Corp. (NUE) netted $144.43 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from sixteen analysts less broker fees;
ABM Industries Inc. (ABM) netted $144.04 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from five analysts less broker fees;
Procter & Gamble Co (PG) netted $96.62 based on a mean target price estimate from eighteen analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees;
United Bankshares Inc. (UBSI) netted $94.92 based on a mean target price estimate from five analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees;
RPM International (NYSE:RPM) netted $86.46 based on dividends plus the mean of annual price estimates from four analysts less broker fees;
California Water Service (CWT) netted $85.13 based on estimates from three analysts plus dividends less broker fees;
Stanley Black & Decker (NYSE:SWK) netted $79.47, based on dividend plus mean target price estimates from eleven analysts less broker fees;
Consolidated Edison (ED) netted $70.63 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from seven analysts less broker fees.
The average net gain in dividend and price was over 11.2% on $1k invested in each of these ten dogs.
The stocks listed above were suggested only as decent starting points for your index dog dividend stock purchase research process. These were not recommendations.
Seeking Alpha reader requests prompted this series of index-specific articles reporting dividend yield plus price upside results for twelve popular stock indices: Dow 30; S&P 500; S&P Aristocrats; Russell 50; NASDAQ; NYSE International 100; NASDAQ (formerly Mergent) Dividend Achievers; Champions; Contenders; Challengers; Carnevale's Power 25; Carnevale's Super 29.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.
Disclosure: I am long DD, GE, INTC, JNJ, MCD, PFE, T, VZ. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.