Tim Travis
Long only, deep value, registered investment advisor, portfolio strategy

Peabody Energy: Commodity Contrarian Investing 101

The biggest determinant for investment success is the price that is paid. The best time to buy a stock is when it is significantly out of favor, and generally this means that there will be a lot of uncertainty based on when a recovery can ultimately occur. Short-term or momentum investors, which are pervasive in the modern equity markets, aren't interested in ascertaining the intrinsic value of the underlying business, therefore there is an opportunity for a time-arbitrage for long-term investors. The situation gets even trickier when large debt loads are involved, particularly in a commodity industry such as coal. The primacy of the income statement in stock analysis tends to mask the cash flow and net asset value, which...

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