Beware Recent Housing Data - Barclays

More bad news ahead for housing prices, as per Barclays. They're forecasting a bottom in 2010, down a whopping 40% from their peak, and argue that some of the recent good news in the data may have been deceptive. Expect a return to negative surprises this fall. (via Calculated Risk)

Seasonally adjusted home-price data has been skewed higher during the spring months of this year and last year by an “amplified” version of typical patterns, according to the analysts. More homeowners sell their properties during those months, cutting the share of foreclosed homes being offloaded at distressed prices, as new buyers focus on “desirable neighborhoods” where values hold up better, they said.

...Data reflecting a reversal of the seasonal benefit, as well as “a tide of new foreclosure sales” as a moratorium on the seizing of homes put in place by banks subsides, will lead to “renewed weakness” in the fall, they said.

Comments

[Fighting Yoda]

Deutsche Bank Report:
- By Q1 2011, we estimate that 41% of prime conforming borrowers and 46% of prime jumbo borrowers will be underwater
- Overall, 16 million homeowners are “upside-down” on their mortgages, up from 10 million, or 15% of owner-occupied homes, one year ago.

2009 Aug 05 05:58 PM