Will 2010 Be the Year of the Tablet?

By John Biggs

There’s a lot of talk of 2010 being the year of the tablet or, more correctly, the year of the Mobile Internet Device (MID). These devices were supposed to change the world a few years ago (remember Origami?) but never did and we basically bumped over MIDs and into netbooks, resulting in the race to the bottom we’re now seeing.

But now we learn that Dell might be making a MID and that Apple is planning a bigger Touch. These two rumors are fairly concrete - I’d give the Tapplet a 75% chance of happening and a Dell MID about 80% - but there’s a big problem: people don’t like MIDs.

Archos knows this. They’ve been making MIDs since we were all in diapers - at least it seems that way. They’ve made touchscreen media players and mini computers for years. Samsung made a few. OQO made one and then died. People just don’t like the size and shape of MIDs. Their value is not immediately apparent to most people and devices like the Nokia N810 and the Samsung Mondi have no clear audience.

Robin pointed out that we’re also talking about the Crunchpad. It’s definitely in the tablet realm but it’s not really supposed to act like a Tablet PC - the OS is designed to lead you into browser sessions rather than apps. It might scratch an itch we all have - the tablet that stays on the coffee table or bedside table and let’s us surf - but that’s all wait and see right now.

If Apple (AAPL) makes a tablet people will buy it. They’ll line up around the block. Why? Because it won’t be a tablet. It will be a good media device with some cool tricks. It will make sense, in some way, to have an Apple Tablet. The trick is that the device has to replace two devices. The iPhone replaced your smartphone and your media player. The netbook, in a sense, replaced your big laptop and your pricey office suite. Apple needs to replace two things. I suspect, for example, the Tapplet - with a streaming device that will connect to your TV - will replace the media center PC and the netbook in the home and the netbook and Kindle on the go. This is all speculation, but it sort of makes sense.

As for other MIDs I doubt there will be any traction. Ultralights will replace netbooks and MIDs will remain niche products unless Microsoft gets really smart about Windows for Tablets, creating something like a mini-Surface.

Generally, however, the year of tablets will never come - at least not in the next decade. The keyboard is an old, tested construct and it will be hard to wean us netheads away from it. Some day we’ll all be typing in the air and gesturing on paper-thin screens to bring up our Google Excel 2059 spreadholograms but that’s a way off.

Do you use MIDs daily? Tablets? In what field?

Original post

Comments

[User 163599:]

"I suspect, for example, the Tapplet - with a streaming device that will connect to your TV - will replace the media center PC and the netbook in the home and the netbook and Kindle on the go"

I don't see why anyone would think a table PC would replace a media PC. The two are totally different kinds of hardware devices.
One is ultra mobile, with a built in screen and keyboard.
The other does not move, it always attached to your TV where you don't want to have to disconnect it. It does not have a keyboard but is instead accessed via a remote or wireless keyboard.
Using a table PC as a media PC wastes all its advantages, size, screen, touch screen.

I do not see that there is a killer feature for a tablet PC. The only reason netbooks are popular is how cheap they are. Apple's $700 tablet won't hold much value over a Macbook other than maybe price.

Aug 05 10:34 AM

[Zoltan L. K...:]

Apple is a master for ease of use and that might make a difference. Anyway its an interesting topic and an interesting world nowdays.

Aug 05 11:03 AM

[Roger Knights:]

"The keyboard is an old, tested construct and it will be hard to wean us netheads away from it."

Doug Englebart (sp?), the inventor of the graphical interface and mouse, also invented a gadget that enabled one-hand typing. He was very disappointed that it didn't catch on. If Apple offered it as an option, and promoted its use with online educational courses, it might have a big impact now. It would be worth taking a gamble on.

Aug 05 01:07 PM

[Bastion:]

Yes, "you" don't see it - but that doesn't mean it isn't coming. You just don't have the vision for it.

Here, it is simple, really (and I agree with the author that this would be huge, but for Apple may cannibalize Apple TV sales...)

It's called a wireless docking station. Not intuitive? The dock goes in your media room and is "permanently" connected to your A/V set up. It has a docking port/stand to hold the iPad (my "trademarked" name for Apple's new tablet) that has either bluetooth, wifi, or maybe both - and IR for remote control.

If you use the iPad out of the dock on the couch, the device streams your content over bluetooth or wifi back to the dock for playback on your A/V system. This gives you more direct control over the device, and might even permit some multi-tasking (depending upon the robustness of the battery) - e.g. you could imdb something related to the movie you're watching.

If you keep the iPad in the dock (better for power management), you just use an Apple Remote to control the Front Row / Apple TV interface to your iPad's content.

In theory, you could also match a bluetooth keyboard to the dock for more "media PC" type of uses whilst sitting on the couch.

Ready to stop being a couch potato? Undock the iPad and go...

I think this could be awesome - maybe it would just replace Apple TV? I guess it would depend upon storage capacity...

Or maybe the iPad dock teams up with a Time Capsule - for backup of the iPad and extra storage...

On Aug 05 10:34 AM User 163599 wrote:

> I don't see why anyone would think a table PC would replace a media
> PC. The two are totally different kinds of hardware devices.
> One is ultra mobile, with a built in screen and keyboard.
> The other does not move, it always attached to your TV where you
> don't want to have to disconnect it. It does not have a keyboard
> but is instead accessed via a remote or wireless keyboard.
> Using a table PC as a media PC wastes all its advantages, size, screen,
> touch screen.

Aug 05 02:17 PM

[mollytjm:]

when i saw the first Touch i though, it would be even better if it came in a paperback book size...games would be really awesome and you could surf the web more comfortably. I use my iPhone all the time for surfing and gaming, but sometimes it's just too darn small. i can't believe people use smartphones with smaller screens. you can't play a complicated action game on them. i also read books on my iPhone but, again, the 'page' is just a bit too small to speed read and scrolling doesn't help because that's not the eye pattern for speed reading.
So i'm very excited about the possibility of a little bigger iTouch...maybe a tablet with a phone too...so i still only have to carry one item.

Aug 06 10:34 AM

[Ed Samiljan:]

I love my new Kindle DX and use it for daily reading time and to hold hundred of songs and lyrics. I would love a new tablet to have smooth internet connections.
The Kindle is usable but clunky for browsing and email. Plays mp3"s but without selectivity of individual songs.
Also, valuable would be a tablet with folder and filing capabilities that are lacking in the kindle.
Add those items and you have an instrument with an amazing appeal.

Aug 06 01:40 PM