Earnings Preview: Sirius XM Radio 68 comments
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Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) is expected to report Q2 earnings before the market open on Thursday, August 6 with a conference call scheduled for 8 am ET.
Guidance
Analysts are looking for a loss of (1c) on revenue of $607.84M. The consensus range is (2c)-(1c) for EPS, and revenue of $604M-$610.92M, according to First Call. On July 1 the NY Times wrote that Sirius XM may be the "best investment play" on an American recovery. If the company can increase its subscribers, the Times said the company's business could eventually be worth about $8.3B, and there's room for today's stock price to more than double.
Analyst Views
JP Morgan analyst Lev Polinksy believes the company will report subscriber losses of about 400,000 in Q2 and flat revenue, but sees subscriber levels stabilizing in 2H09. Barrington analyst James Gross says "The financial risk has been reduced and now you are looking at a positive swing in EBITDA of more than $500M over the course of the year...All of that seems to provide much more favorable outlook than it did before." Gross notes that through the "cash for clunkers" government incentive program, Sirius should have an increased number of car buyers who will have the Sirius option to consider, which could revive subscriber growth. Analysts and investors will listen for comments from Sirius XM's management on the number of customers who downloaded a free application for Apple's (AAPL) App store that allows iPhone and iPod Touch users to access 120 channels.
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On Aug 06 10:26 AM Hawk180 wrote:
> 2Q earnings reports are out and are as expected. An improvement over
> 1Q. I believe this company will continue to improve. And as I have
> said many times, radio is not their only product. That along with
> the iphone apps as well as their WXworks and planned projects for
> the future will IMHO make this a steady growth stock. I'm long!
Doom: will 2003 repeat itself? Will Siri go from $.40 to $3.85?
“Other special items”
----
--the company reported a net loss attributable to common shareholders of $157.3 million, or 4 cents a share.
--Excluding $108 million of debt-related charges and other special items,
--Matching analysts estimates 1 cent a share
----
A lose is money you don’t have anymore. You can cook your reporting but you can not make stew without money to buy the ingredients.
Plain and simple SIRI lost 4 cents a share. That makes 11 cents a share lose over the last 6 months. The original street estimate was only 11 cents for the entire year. This is NOT good.
Sign of continued bleeding. If this continues SIRI will be slammed next quarter for being way over yearly estimated loses.
What is good about this forward looking bleeding?
SIRI lost 4 cents a share.
International Sales
Not the only solution but it would be a big one. I don’t think it is possible with all the new music rights law. It would save SIRI…
On Aug 06 05:02 PM between the hedges wrote:
> Yo Mama! Awesome. Inventory depletion = ramp up in production = more
> sat rad in new cars. The mfgrs love SiriXM. Users love SiriXM. Can't
> get enough of it.
>
> Doom: will 2003 repeat itself? Will Siri go from $.40 to $3.85?
Mel will not bend. The man is in love with himself. He will not listen to reason or ideas from the “Unwashed”. So, don’t waist time thinking how to save SIRI.
Also, Malone is sitting in the back ground liking his chops. So, don’t expect any help from him.
The federal government's cash-for-clunkers program, which gives consumers who trade in old cars credit for new, more fuel-efficient ones, may also have a muted effect on satellite radio sales. Most trade-in buyers have opted for smaller, less expensive cars that don't come equipped with the radios, according to Efraim Levy, an automotive analyst with Standard & Poor's.
Most trade-in buyers have opted for smaller, less expensive cars that don't come equipped with the radios,
www.businessweek.com/t...
Instead, we are watching 60 cents slip slide away for the 3rd q report.
Note - shorts are less but not out. Cramer is even flamming shorts for downing the market.
On Aug 07 02:52 PM SIRI-Doom wrote:
> A deal with Goggle for advertising based, limited channel Ipod and
> Internet listening would send SIRI soring to 90 cents.
>
> Instead, we are watching 60 cents slip slide away for the 3rd q report.
>
>
> Note - shorts are less but not out. Cramer is even flamming shorts
> for downing the market.
The monkey factor - remember Mel threatened us with more news released at the end of the month. We have been given no clue what news. Does the monkey get us for staying out? We have time as this is only the 7th.
For me, everything getting back in under 48 is all spread gain. I will be going back in with blocks of 20,000 shares. My ears are open.
Evaluate Monday for more slide. I would like it to stop at 46 for the good of SIRI. But 44 is good for me. I will be keeping some back for the possibility of 38 cents.
By keeping a range of blocks at varied sp I trade to pay bills each month. I don’t worry about missing a high and I can always jump in on a run up...
On Aug 07 03:03 PM jmsithy wrote:
> I dont know Siri Doom where do you see it at .43 .44 .45 by next
> week? I see it
I will be holding out but with fear of the monkey...
Ask: 0.4949 x 20000
The GS computer is pumping up. At current price level this indicated a higher target for a low to milk the spread.
But we need more time for data to see if this is an off cycle GS play on the 2Q report.
Now that the exchanges are once again threatening to delist stocks that consistently close below the price of $1 a share, expect more companies turning to reverse splits in the future.
"If in fact Sirius XM stock does not trade above $1, we would have to take actions which would mean a reverse split within the next year," Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) CEO Mel Karmazin told investors during this week's conference call.
www.fool.com/investing...
Given the massive amount of lawsuits that have been threatened, I can no longer say Mel wants the rev-split.
However, I do know he will have his butt in court for a long time defending the omission of the original Malone offer in December 08. He did not tell stock holders about that offer when he got authorization for a rev-split. Declining and hiding that offer is the root of all SIRI problems today.
When the split happens, I will be dumping ASAP. It will be the end of my days trading SIRI. It will also mark the day of my own lawsuit against Mel…
On Aug 07 04:24 PM SIRI-Doom wrote:
> On the way up last week, I sold blocks from 46 to 56 cents. The lower
> I can get back in, the more the spread gain.
>
> I will be holding out but with fear of the monkey...