Goldman's Macro-Bulls Out in Full Force 24 comments
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First the 85 Broads roll one of them out at CNBC, depositing the permabullish dinosaur Abby Cohen to preach how the bull market has just restarted compliments of the mega squeeze in AIG, Fannie Mae (FNM) and CIT (in finance you are as valuable if you bat 0.000 as if you bat 1.000), and now, hot on the heels of Hatzius' upgrade to Q2 GDP from 1% to 3%, they roll out another macro bullish piece, saying July nonfarm payrolls will be up to -250,000 from -300,000 (the question of whether the 50,000 actually matters in any scheme of things, is irrelevant).
Ironically, it was yesterday that Jan thought projected employment assumptions wouldn't budge. So much has changed in 24 hours.
Incoming information on the labor market has been a mixed bag, but in our view points towards a slightly better outcome than our first estimate made about two weeks ago. In particular, information on jobless claims suggests – even after correcting for seasonal distortions related to the timing of auto sector plant shutdowns – some improvement in the state of the labor market. Furthermore, the one-time effects from the temporary hiring/firing of Census workers earlier this year (which reduced government payrolls by 49,000 last month) are essentially over. More broadly, the economy appears to be stabilizing after the sharp declines of Q4 and Q1, and employment trends should follow this with some lag. Despite disappointments in Wednesday’s ADP employment report and the employment index of the ISM non-manufacturing survey, we are increasing our payroll forecast to -250,000, from -300,000 previously.
This all smells of last-ditch desperation to reel in the few remaining retail investors who still believe that Goldman Sachs (GS) practices what it preaches.
Also, watch for this to make Breaking News on CNBC as soon as they figure out how to turn on the Bloomberg (that thumbprint sure is a brainteaser).
h/t Hedged In
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On Aug 07 07:24 AM Doom Bloggers s**** wrote:
> SeekingAlpha's Doom and Gloomers out in full force.
>
> Do you people ever give up
Despite the fraud and economic destruction this is one place where apathy does NOT rule, where the truth and manipulation ARE exposed!
The recent success regarding flash trading is an excellent example, and largely as a result of the efforts of this particular author!
I have long known that it is classic for manipulators to demean their detractors.
On Aug 07 08:40 AM John Galt wrote:
> Does Abby Cohen really believe what she says, or did she draw the
> short straw over at Goldman? She jumps on the grenade and sacrafices
> her reputation so that her friends can buy low/sell high and line
> their pockets with your money.
Looks like we are failing the key levels this morning but the day is far from over. WE are still in a very tight trading range so either we break out today or Monday or we fail with a 5% pullback.
The market is overbought but I would not be surprised if we headed higher after all this pumping and *good news*. Eventually, the markets will plummet.
On Aug 07 07:58 AM Harry Tuttle wrote:
> Abby Cohen actually retired in the 90's. They guys at GS just kept
> a tape of her saying she sees 20% upside on the S&P and they
> play it over and over.
end of month = rally hard
end of quarter = rallying too hard for words
California BK = fiscal rejiggering
Michigan next in line = never mentioned
CRE depression = REIT's explode higher
Housing JUNE sales edge higher = housing is rebounding(again)
GS front running trades = liquidity preservation
Banks own congress and the Fed = bank rally
consumer is insolvent = consumer is saving
mass layoffs = across the board earnings' improvement
earnings are not improving = earnings are beating street's expectations
STILL no jobs created= the consumer is temporarilly retrenching
deflation = bull rally
expiration of unemployment benefits = unemployment is abating OR
contracting(either will do just fine)
Isn't our economy consumer based? = don't ask, don't tell consumer IS 70% of economy = rebound will be business based
low interest rates = good for stocks
high interest rates = great for stocks
collapsing dollar = buy stocks
rising dollar = not gonna happen
$10 frozen dinner = sure sign of recovery
CIT BK = HUUUUUUUUGE RALLY
CIT not yet BK = reason to be bullish
Bank failure Friday = stabilization
oil @ 50 = recovery is close
oil at $70 = recovery is incredibly close
oil at $90 = starting to recover
oil @ $110 = sign of increased consumer spending
oil @ $5 = boon for Joe Consumer
Gas @ $2 = tax break
gas @ $3 = mustard seeds for economic recovery
gas @ $4 = depression :)
Gas @ $1 = not in our lifetime
employment @ 10 % = better than expected
employment @ 11% = as expected
employment @ 12% = not unexpected
employment @ 13% = could have been expected
real unemployment right now @ 17% = never discussed
real unemployment @ 22% = market could correct from here
stealing from our grandchildren = stimulus
stealing from our great grandchildren = "cash for clunkers is a huge
success"
government buying people cars = economy showing signs of life
economy is already dead = S+P 1000, DOW 10k
bear market rally = NEW bull market rally
no basis for NEW bull market rally = dis-included in pumper's handbook
10% unemployment
effects of socialism
depressionary states
higher taxes = THE NEW NORMAL
oppressive government
social unrest
decending to mediocrity
AND IF ALL ELSE FAILS(which probably will):
WWIII = TANGIBLE MANUFACTURING GREEN SHOOT
I've heard enough of what's come out of her yap not to think twice about calling her a well paid buffoon.
The circus freak of Wall Street
OR
maybe the car crash of Wall Street
You see her and you wince, but you can't turn away and the more you observe and listen, the wider your mouth opens.
(Drive by a horrific car crash at 5mph and you'll see the analogy clearer)
Though this is good news, I would not be surprised, as happened in May, if the numbers look worse next month.
Enjoy your stupid bearish bias, too bad it won't pay the bills.
Only morons fight the trend, and right now it's up till it's not.
Enjoy your stupid bearish bias, too bad it won't pay the bills.
Only morons fight the trend, and right now it's up till it's not.
----------------------...
Which trend are you speaking of? From march? Ok..nice chart.
I am all for a trend, but this is a trend for disaster. You can say and believe what you want, but in reality, this trend is not at sustainable. You want to look at a trend, plot a line from Oct. 11, 2007 to today....That is the trend I am sticking with...I might possibly put money long if: (oh wait, i am long..long SDS)
Foreclosures were going down
Houses were selling in my neighborhood (and I live in Texas, where we are actually on the stable side of things)
Fannie wasnt asking for billions more
banks werent going under every week
A job report was actually positive and not just "less worse"
I could go on and on and on.
We wont even need a catalyst for a major pullback, one day the big boys pulling the strings will hit the sell button, and it will fall like a house of cards..we may not reach the lows, but we sure could lose 200, 250, and even 300 without even batting an eye...GL to your trend..let me know in a couple of months how that worked out for you.
On Aug 07 12:45 PM futurestrader wrote:
> Which trend are you speaking of? From march? Ok..nice chart.
> I am all for a trend, but this is a trend for disaster. You can say
> and believe what you want, but in reality, this trend is not at sustainable.
> You want to look at a trend, plot a line from Oct. 11, 2007 to today....That
> is the trend I am sticking with...I might possibly put money long
> if: (oh wait, i am long..long SDS)
>
> Foreclosures were going down
> Houses were selling in my neighborhood (and I live in Texas, where
> we are actually on the stable side of things)
> Fannie wasnt asking for billions more
> banks werent going under every week
> A job report was actually positive and not just "less worse"
> I could go on and on and on.
>
> We wont even need a catalyst for a major pullback, one day the big
> boys pulling the strings will hit the sell button, and it will fall
> like a house of cards..we may not reach the lows, but we sure could
> lose 200, 250, and even 300 without even batting an eye...GL to your
> trend..let me know in a couple of months how that worked out for
> you.
None of that information is useful as you only trade what you see, not what you think. It's really easy to spot the pros from the amatuers. The amatuers have opinions.
In any case, Zero Hedge you deserve many accolades for your fight
against G.S.'s B.S. and all the other corruption and crap being hurled at us relentlessly. Bravo!!
RE: "It's really easy to spot the pros from the amatuers. The amatuers have opinions."
And in 1929 it was really easy to spot the pros, they were the splat markets on the sidewalk.
TA is 100% correct when he says the pro trader can not have an opinion just an immediate view.
There are a lot of good reasons for an optimistic bounce off the panic lows.
There are a lot of good reasons to mask another forced sell-off.
I think this forum tends to serve the needs of those looking for alternative views and reasonably should be given some latitude with that in mind.
For example, my pet is the common thesis here of market manipulation of one form or another.
Just look at 3:22pm today. The unscheduled sell-off was gaining momentum and bang, stop it in its tracks, and tail off the rest of the Friday afternoon. Traders were starting to close positions at 3:00pm and would have dropped the S&P by half of its gain today or maybe more. But some force intervened at 3:22pm to make sure that did not happen TODAY. Anybody else either note this or have any thoughts?
On Aug 07 12:57 PM Gtarras wrote:
> I suggest folks find and read Tyler's "first even interview". yoo-hoo!
> what a star he has become due to his sensational style of journalism.
> read his answers, you might be surprised that the team at zerohedge
> is nothing but a bunch of kids with mid-level experience on the street.
> Check out Tyler's posts from march, they completely missed the boat
> on this market. I suggest, Tyler, you stick to the investegotory
> side of reporting only, you do a great job there.
On Aug 07 12:08 PM TA wrote:
> Without fools like this, who would there be to take money from?<br/>Enjoy
> your stupid bearish bias, too bad it won't pay the bills.
>
> Only morons fight the trend, and right now it's up till it's not.