Week In FX Americas - Loonie Rides Alone Among Commodity Pairs

Includes: FXC, FXCH, FXE, UDN, UUP
by: Dean Popplewell

The key focus come Monday will be on the data from China this weekend. Q2 GDP growth is expected to come in at +7.5%, but concerns remain over H2 and the political willingness to accept lower growth. The fear of a Chinese economic slowdown should not have too great a direct impact on the country with the loonie. Canada's exports to that country, about +4% of its total exports, are somewhat insignificant when you compare it to its exports heading south of its own boarders to the U.S., which is about +75% (too high an export concentration to one country is, however, another ongoing debate).

From a Canadian standpoint, any slowdown to Mainland China can easily be offset by a bump in the trade figures to the U.S. Even from a commodity perspective, like oil, the loonie and Canada are much less exposed to China's economic slowdown and are less likely to be effected by one like other commodity currencies (AUD, BRL, NZD, etc.). The loonie ends the week stuck just south of the midpoint volatility witnessed this week. The market is on a natural pause from the Q&A Bernanke fallout mid-week. It's a tad surprising to see the loonie hold up so well, especially as the "big" dollar has ended the week rallying against most of its major trading partners.

Next week, investors will be dealing with the fallout from the Bank of Canada interest rate decision -- the first under the stewardship of new BoC Governor Stephen Poloz. Analysts note that with a stronger-than-expected first half of the year, improved commodity prices (especially crude), and economic growth happening south of the border, many do not expect Governor Poloz to be dropping the hawkish bias anytime soon.