Earnings Preview: 4 Companies That Could Surprise

By Charles Rotblut

Retailers will start to release second-quarter results this week, accounting for nearly 10% of the 246 scheduled reports. Dow component Wal-Mart (WMT) will be joined by 15 other members of the S&P 500, including J.C. Penney (JCP), Kohl's (KSS) and Macy's (M).

The Fed will hold a 2-day meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. No change in interest rates will be made, though the statement should acknowledge that the economy is nearing stabilization.

The bond markets could be volatile, not only because of the Fed meeting, but also because of quarterly refunding. The Treasury Department will auction 3-year, 10-year and 30-year bonds. The offerings should total $75 billion.

Most of the week's economic data will be released after the Fed's meeting, with the exception of the preliminary estimate of Q2 productivity. We'll see the latest industrial production and consumer sentiment numbers on Friday.

• Tuesday: Q2 productivity
• Wednesday: June wholesale inventories, June trade balance, Fed statement (about 2:10 p.m.), July treasury budget, weekly crude inventories
• Thursday: July retail sales, June business inventories, July import and export prices, weekly initial jobless claims
• Friday: July Consumer Price Index (CPI), July industrial production and capacity utilization, preliminary August University of Michigan consumer confidence

No Fed officials are scheduled to speak.

As I write this on Friday morning, the S&P 500 has broken above resistance. Though the trend still favors the bulls, the major indexes are overbought. Furthermore, the tailwind from second-quarter earnings is disappearing. I think a pullback will occur soon, though I do feel a bit like a guy who is trying to sell umbrellas in the midst of a drought.

Companies That Could Issue Positive Earnings Surprises

One of the 10 covering brokerage analysts on Cree, Inc. (CREE) recently raised his fiscal fourth-quarter forecast. Though the change was not enough to move the Zacks Consensus Estimate from its current level of 11 cents per share, it did result in a more bullish most accurate estimate of 14 cents per share. Furthermore, projections for fiscal 2010 have gradually been rising, suggesting that guidance could be good. CREE has topped expectations twice and matched forecasts twice during the last 4 quarters. Cree is scheduled to report on Tuesday, Aug 11, after the close of trading.

Though J.C. Penney Company (JCP) experienced a 12.3% drop in July same-store sales, the decline was less than the company had feared. As a result, JCP raised its adjusted second-quarter profit guidance to a loss of 1 cent per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate also calls for an adjusted loss of 1 cent per share. Though JCP matched expectations last quarter, it did top forecasts the previous 6 quarters. J.C. Penney is scheduled to report on Friday, Aug 14, before the start of trading.

Kohl's (KSS) just raised its second-quarter guidance. Crediting growth in July sales (accessories, home goods and footwear sold well), the company now projects profits of 73 to 74 cents per share. Previously, the department store chain had guided for profits of 56 to 64 cents per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has been revised up to 74 cents per share, though there could still be more upside given that KSS has topped expectations for 5 consecutive quarters. Kohl's is scheduled to report on Thursday, Aug 13, before the start of trading.

Companies That Could Issue Negative Earnings Surprises

Ethan Allen (ETH) has missed expectations for 3 consecutive quarters. The majority of the covering brokerage analysts are bracing for another disappointing quarter, judging by the 9-cent drop in the average forecast. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is calling for a loss of 25 cents per share. Ethan Allen is scheduled to report on Wednesday, Aug 12, before the start of trading.

Comments

[Onecent:]

Please, a surprise at these ridiculously revised downward estimates, it means nothing.

Retail is a very bad investment.

The consumer is dead on their feet and not coming back to pre-recession levels probably for decades. Consumer spending habits have changed. No more easy mortgaged appreciating houses to use for ATM machines to buy stuff any more. All retail will have less earnings for years to come.

Aug 11 03:46 PM