Cramer's Mad Money - Throw Out The Hedge Fund Playbook (7/16/13)

by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Tuesday July 16.

Throw Out The Hedge Fund Playbook: Darden (NYSE:DRI), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ), Micron (NASDAQ:MU), 3M (NYSE:MMM), Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX), Celgene (NASDAQ:CELG), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), Gilead (NASDAQ:GILD), Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU), Cypress Semiconductor (NASDAQ:CY), Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN)

With a decline in the Dow of 32 points after 8 straight sessions of gains, Cramer tells viewers not to fret. There seems to be a lot to fret about, with higher interest rates and gas prices flirting with the $4 range, but about the only company complaining about higher gas prices is Darden (DRI), when the entire restaurant segment should be worried. Shorting has been a bad strategy for many sectors. Many predicted banks would perform poorly, and Wells Fargo (WFC) was downgraded twice before its earnings report, only to show that it was outperforming in the very segments that should have been underperforming. Goldman Sachs (GS) reported a strong quarter, but was sold off on a generalized worry about financials. Cramer thinks that if Bank of America (BAC) reports a tepid quarter, banks will be sold off.

People were worried about PCs and semis, but this sector has punished the shorts. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) has gone from being the worst performer to the best performer in the Dow, and has gained 85% for the year. Micron (MU) has risen 110% so far this year. 3M (MMM) cut guidance, but the decline was a buying opportunity. Bears were fretting about Starbucks (SBUX), which reported a strong quarter and has been up 10 straight points since. It is "straight from the hedge fund playbook," said Cramer, to short growth stocks in an era of higher rates, but growth stocks have been rising. Amazon (AMZN) and Netflix (NFLX) are at their 52 week highs. Celgene (CELG) rose on new hope for its Revlimid treatment in Europe, but Gilead (GILD) saw a boost from no news at all.

Cramer took some calls:

Qualcomm (QCOM) is not Cramer's favorite. He prefers old fashioned tech, like Texas Instruments (TXN), Cypress Semiconductor (CY) and Micron.

Baidu (BIDU) is not a buy, even though it is making acquisitions and China seems to be bottoming. Cramer doesn't want to buy any Chinese stocks, because he doesn't trust the Chinese stock market.

Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) Does Not Trade With Oil. Other stock mentioned: iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (NYSEARCA:EWZ)

In this environment, it is a good idea to find stocks that have been beaten down but are ready to turn around. Petrobras (PBR) is a Brazilian oil outfit that could turn from loser to leader. Technical analyst Tim Collins of thinks PBR is ready to roll. The stock hasn't been doing much since 2008. Cramer recommended selling PBR, and it declined from the $40s to around $13. However, PBR had a short term rally this March and again in April before erasing its gains. Tim Collins noted a pattern with these rallies; when the stock moved above its 10 day moving average, those who owned the stock could have taken profits for a nice gain. He sees the same pattern happening again, and thinks the stock could reach $15.

In addition, PBR is showing a rounding bottom pattern which could signal a rebound. It has two ceilings of resistance, at $14 and $14.50. The RSI and stochastics are making new highs, even as the stock isn't moving. One telling chart shows that PBR only has a 50% correlation with West Texas Intermediate price of oil. However, it has a 90% correlation with iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ). This shows that PBR trades with Brazil and not with the price of oil, and that is why it got hammered along with other emerging market stocks. With more hopeful news coming out of Brazil, PBR could turn around.

The Bears Are Tired Of Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO)

When a company releases bad news and the stock not only doesn't go down, but goes higher, that is a bullish sign. Valero (VLO) slashed estimates and said it expected a shortfall due to the price differential between WTI and Brent Crude, seasonal issues, problems at several refineries and pressure from the EPA. The stock opened down slightly the day after the announcement, but shot up to close up $1.32. Cramer said this happened because no one expected anything good from Valero anyway. The sellers had been shaken out, allowing the bulls to come in and stress the positives about Valero. First of all, VLO is not as hurt by the price differential in oil as landlocked refiners. Valero is spinning off assets and may have an MLP early next year; this could add 20% to VLO's stock price. With a multiple of 6.4 and an 8.6% growth rate, Valero is "ridiculously cheap."

Coca-Cola's (NYSE:KO) Lame Excuses. Other stocks mentioned: Pepsico (NYSE:PEP), Mondelez (NASDAQ:MDLZ)

Coca-Cola (KO) gave some pretty lame excuses for its poor performance. Management blamed "ongoing challenging macro-economic conditions," and the weather for its lackluster results. Coca-Cola has long been a company that performs well in spite of economic conditions, and Cramer asked, 'Who stops drinking Coke because of the weather?" Cramer thinks the problem is with KO's business model. Pepsico (PEP) has both beverages and snacks, as well as a strong management that is cutting costs and expanding globally. Cramer thinks KO should merge with Mondelez (MDLZ) so it has a similar business model as Pepsi. While some think that Pepsi should split itself up into a beverage business and a snack segment, Cramer thinks the combination is better, and doesn't think KO should be selling only beverages.


Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS: Trade right alongside a Wall Street pro! Start your 14-day FREE trial today.

Get Cramer's Picks by email - it's free and takes only a few seconds to sign up.