BioDelivery Science: A Buy I Couldn't Refuse

When shares of BioDelivery Sciences (BDSI) started dropping after the Onsolis approval, I set five dollars as my personal buy price - not knowing if, but hoping, it would drop that low.

On Thursday morning I saw the price steam through that level and drop all the way to $4.60. I took a break from stock watching at that point just to keep my finger off the buy trigger in hopes that the stock would drop a little bit lower. However, when I came back to the computer, the stock had already bounced back up to $4.70, where I doubled down on my position.

The stock is being manipulated right now, a given since Feuerstein is involved, and the manipulation is scaring long term investors out of their shares, which is unfortunate because a year from now I think that BDSI will be trading for significantly higher prices than the current levels.

If this drop were in anticipation of an FDA approval decision, I'd be worried.
However, Onsolis is approved and that is just the beggining of the story for BioDelivery's BEMA technology, in my opinion.

If this drop were due to the fact that bad news was about to be released, then I think that the bottom would have fallen out of the stock, which hasn't happened. More than likely there's a few shorts involved and manipulation is in full effect.

There's no telling how low the stock will go, but I don't see it dropping below the the low $4 range, if it gets that far down. Of course, that's just my opinion.

Take advantage of this drop and in one year from now, long term investors should be very well rewarded for their patience and perseverance, in my opinion.

After my double-down yesterday, my new buy point is set for $4, but I don't think we'll go that low.

Disclosure: VFC is long BDSI.

Comments

[gostockyour...:]

whats your 3mo/60mo/1yr target price?

(sites super slow or i'd be more then willing to look back at your previous articles).

Aug 13 07:53 AM

[VFC's Stock...:]

gostock,

I had predicted a spike to 10-12 on Onsolis approval before settling back down to 8-10.

Six months from now I believe manipulation will be finished and the stock will be over ten.

Just my opinion, barring any unforseen news.

VFC

Aug 13 08:28 AM

[gino:]

If you look at the short position on the shares it has gone up to 1.6M as of 07/31/2009. Which I believe is much higher as of today. I think the reason is because Elliott sold their position out and are still sitting on 1.9M warrants. When short sellers see a fund dumping their position they hop onboard and ride the wave down. Also, their could be short seller looking to push the price down to lock in their warrant position gain. I like the big rise in the short position because as good news comes out followed by positive research it could make for a very strong move higher. In my opnion we would be at $12-$15 if Elliott was still holing onto their full position.

Aug 13 09:10 AM

[User 275302:]

<<The stock is being manipulated right now, a given since Feuerstein is involved,...>>

I have no idea whether you're insinuating that Feuerstein is talking down/up this stock in hopes of moving the price, or that others who follow Feuerstein do, but if it's leveled at Feuerstein, then I think you're way off base. Having followed Feuerstein for over a year now, I think he tries to call them as he sees them. His calls may be wrong at times, but I don't find any machiavellian intent to his postings.

Aug 13 07:03 PM

[DryShips:]

Comparing BDSI to other small/mid cap biotech stocks with partnerships in place, BDSI is fairly valued at $5, at least in the short-term. Weakness in share price has been caused by two factors. Firstly, short interest has risen to just over 10%, up significantly since FDA approval. Secondly, the stock has simply lost momentum with no near-term catalysts on the horizon. BDSI is only going to receive another $30 million in total milestone payments excluding the double-digit royalites. Time will tell if royalities are significant. I see more opportunity elsewhere for now, but longer term, I hope BDSI can continue to increase shareholder value.

Aug 14 01:27 PM

[carsons7:]

Feuerstein's comments were appropriate, imho, as there are other alternate pain delivery methods as unique and effective as BDSI.

What is much more troubling to me is that BDSI has only $5 million of cash left, according to Yahoo Finance, finance.yahoo.com/q/ks...

It seems that a secondary stock offering is a must, in the not too distant future, which will of course dilute the existing shareholders..

Anyone else see it that way??

Aug 15 09:10 AM