8 Takeaways from Nassim Taleb CNBC Interview

Nassim Taleb was interviewed on CNBC's Squawk Box Wednesday morning (CNBC Video), along with Nouriel Roubini. Some observations from Taleb include the following (the first one still worth repeating, especially given the recent market moves and short covering, the remaining ideas being essentially repeats from other interviews/columns):

• Short-term markets mean nothing. They are driven by the marginal buyer/seller.
• The risk and problems that we had before - debt, poor leadership - are still there.
• Converting private debt to public debt is just causing more problems.
• Structural problems have not been addressed.
• Too much susceptibility to forecast errors regarding the recovery, budget, and debt.
• Policy makers are still not working on the main problems and their cures, just the symptoms.
• We are continuing to reward those who got us into our current problems.
• Nouriel Roubini is usually correct, except for wanting to reappoint Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke (comment after some praise - too easy, just cannot help himself).

Comments

[Richard Dwyer:]

Excellent summary. I believe Taleb is right. The market remains overbought, and the underlying risk is unchanged. Our public debt has ballooned and the forecasts are meaningless. We don't even understand the risk involved in our government policy (bailouts, Cash for Clunkers, etc.).

I see a pullback on the horizon.

Aug 13 07:42 AM

[thevoice@vo...:]

Good synopsis. The better than expected results for retailers and economic reports are due to the stimulus package not real wage increases. As the unemployment number showed, the US is still losing jobs. Its funny how the positive spin on the story was that the US "ONLY" lost 200,000+ jobs instead of 500,000. Further what happens once all the stimulus money runs out if the underlying issues are not fixed?

Aug 13 08:33 AM

[rrtzmd:]

...HAW!...Nassim cracks me up!...one minute he's saying it doesn't really matter what anyone does about the economy because lurking somewhere is a "black swan" that's going to screw up whatever best laid plans there are...the next minute he's full of advice about what we should be doing to correct the problems...well, golly, Taleb -- what difference does it make if that damned swan's going to get us regardless?

Aug 13 11:11 AM

[Uncertain:]

sad to see you, NT, on cnbc, home of the shallow talking heads you revile passionately. You are human, after all, as you profess. Agreeing with your position on the daily media, i missed the interview (but not CNBC)

Aug 13 11:54 AM

[Spartacuss:]

All the foregoing is fine and a lot of points well made, but it is similar to a screaming match where soon the participants lose sight of what they are screaming about just so they cannot be put down....so, scream even louder.

Now I know that NT is not a screamer, nor is anyone else here, but still we wind up hammering the same ponts over and over. How about something new. The VIX is low, low, low and the touts are touting buy buy and buy some more becuase there is no end to up and on.

Yes, indeedy a correction cometh, why, because it has to. Second will be how severe. Like Bill Bonner says " the correction will proportionate to the humbug that preceded it", or words to that effect. In this case we can assume severity. So, then the issue becomes "what to do?"

And here, no one writes much. After all if the Titanic is going down wouldn't one want to advise, "man the lifeboats" and "abandon ship".

Aug 13 05:46 PM